I have a bone to pick with the Washington Post. A few days back, as some of my readers may be aware, it published a list of some two hundred blogs that it claimed were circulating Russian propaganda, and I was disappointed to find that The Archdruid Report didn’t make the cut.
Oh, granted, I don’t wait each week for secret orders from Boris Badenov, the mock-iconic Russian spy from the Rocky and Bullwinkle Show of my youth, but that shouldn’t disqualify me. I’ve seen no evidence that any of the blogs on the list take orders from Moscow, either; certainly the Post offered none worth mentioning. Rather, what seems to have brought down the wrath of “Pravda on the Potomac,” as the Post is unfondly called by many DC locals, is that none of these blogs have been willing to buy into the failed neoconservative consensus that’s guided American foreign policy for the last sixteen years. Of that latter offense, in turn, The Archdruid Report is certainly guilty.
There are at least two significant factors behind the Post’s adoption of the tactics of the late Senator Joe McCarthy, dubious lists and all. The first is that the failure of Hillary Clinton’s presidential ambitions has thrown into stark relief an existential crisis that has the American news media by the throat. The media sell their services to their sponsors on the assumption that they can then sell products and ideas manufactured by those sponsors to the American people. The Clinton campaign accordingly outspent Trump’s people by a factor of two to one, sinking impressive amounts of the cash she raised from millionaire donors into television advertising and other media buys.
Clinton got the coverage she paid for, too. Nearly every newspaper in the United States endorsed her; pundits from one end of the media to the other solemnly insisted that everyone ought to vote for her; equivocal polls were systematically spun in her favor by a galaxy of talking heads. Pretty much everyone who thought they mattered was on board the bandwagon. The only difficulty, really was that the people who actually mattered—in particular, voters in half a dozen crucial swing states—responded to all this by telling their soi-disant betters, “Thanks, but one turkey this November is enough.”
It turned out that Clinton was playing by a rulebook that was long past its sell-by date, while Trump had gauged the shift in popular opinion and directed his resources accordingly. While she sank her money into television ads on prime time, he concentrated on social media and barnstorming speaking tours through regions that rarely see a presidential candidate. He also figured out early on that the mainstream media was a limitless source of free publicity, and the best way to make use of it was to outrage the tender sensibilities of the media itself and get denounced by media talking heads.
That worked because a very large number of people here in the United States no longer trust the news media to tell them anything remotely resembling the truth. That’s why so many of them have turned to blogs for the services that newspapers and broadcast media used to provide: accurate reporting and thoughtful analysis of the events that affect their lives. Nor is this an unresasonable choice. The issue’s not just that the mainstream news media is biased; it’s not just that it never gets around to mentioning many issues that affect people’s lives in today’s America; it’s not even that it only airs a suffocatingly narrow range of viewpoints, running the gamut of opinion from A to A minus—though of course all these are true. It’s also that so much of it is so smug, so shallow, and so dull.
The predicament the mainstream media now face is as simple as it is inescapable. After taking billions of dollars from their sponsors, they’ve failed to deliver the goods.
Every source of advertising revenue in the United States has got to be looking at the outcome of the election, thinking, “Fat lot of good all those TV buys did her,” and then pondering their own advertising budgets and wondering how much of that money might as well be poured down a rathole.
Presumably the mainstream news media could earn the trust of the public again by breaking out of the echo chamber that defines the narrow range of acceptable opinions about the equally narrow range of issues open to discussion, but this would offend their sponsors. Worse, it would offend the social strata that play so large a role in defining and enforcing that echo chamber; most mainstream news media employees who have a role in deciding what does and does not appear in print or on the air belong to these same social strata, and are thus powerfully influenced by peer pressure. Talking about supposed Russian plots to try to convince people not to get their news from blogs, though it’s unlikely to work, doesn’t risk trouble from either of those sources.
Why, though, blame it on the Russians? That’s where we move from the first to the second of the factors I want to discuss this week.
A bit of history may be useful here. During the 1990s, the attitude of the American political class toward the rest of the world rarely strayed far from the notions expressed by Francis Fukuyama in his famous and fatuous essay proclaiming the end of history.
The fall of the Soviet Union, according to this line of thought, proved that democracy and capitalism were the best political and economic systems humanity would ever come up with, and the rest of the world would therefore inevitably embrace them in due time. All that was left for the United States and its allies to do was to enforce certain standards of global order on the not-yet-democratic and not-yet-capitalist nations of the world, until they grew up and got with the program.
That same decade, though, saw the emergence of the neoconservative movement. The neoconservaties were as convinced of the impending triumph of capitalism and democracy as their rivals, but they opposed the serene absurdities of Fukuyama’s thesis with a set of more muscular absurdities of their own. Intoxicated with the collapse of the Soviet Union and its allies, they convinced themselves that identical scenes could be enacted in Baghdad, Tehran, Beijing, and the rest of the world, if only the United States would seize the moment and exploit its global dominance.
During Clinton’s presidency, the neoconservatives formed a pressure group on the fringes of official Washington, setting up lobbying groups such as the Project for a New American Century and bombarding the media with position papers. The presidency of George W. Bush gave them their chance, and they ran with it. Where the first Iraq war ended with Saddam Hussein beaten but still in power—the appropriate reponse according to the older ideology—the second ended with the US occupying Iraq and a manufactured “democratic” regime installed under its aegis. In the afterglow of victory, neoconservatives talked eagerly about the conquest of Iran and the remaking of the Middle East along the same lines as post-Soviet eastern Europe. Unfortunately for these fond daydreams, what happened instead was a vortex of sectarian warfare and anti-American insurgency.
You might think, dear reader, that the cascading failures of US policy in Iraq might have caused second thoughts in the US political and military elites whose uncritical embrace of neoconservative rhetoric let that happen. You might be forgiven, for that matter, for thinking that the results of US intervention in Afghanistan, where the same assumptions had met with the same disappointment, might have given those second thoughts even more urgency. If so, you’d be quite mistaken. According to the conventional wisdom in today’s America, the only conceivable response to failure is doubling down.
“If at first you don’t succeed, fail, fail again” thus seems to be the motto of the US political class these days, and rarely has that been so evident as in the conduct of US foreign policy. The Obama administration embraced the same policies as its feckless predecessor, and the State Department, the CIA, and the Pentagon went their merry way, overthrowing governments right and left, and tossing gasoline onto the flames of ethnic and sectarian strife in various corners of the world, under the serene conviction that the blowback from these actions could never inconvenience the United States.
That would be bad enough. Far worse was the effect of neoconservative policies on certain other nations: Russia, China, and Iran. In the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia was a basket case, Iran was a pariah nation isolated from the rest of the world, and China had apparently made its peace with an era of American global dominance, and was concentrating on building up its economy instead of its military. It would have been child’s play for the United States to maintain that state of affairs indefinitely. Russia could have been helped to recover and then integrated economically into Europe; China could have been allowed the same sort of regional primacy the US allows as a matter of course to its former enemies Germany and Japan; and without US intervention in the Middle East to hand it a bumper crop of opening wedges, Iran could have been left to stew in its own juices until it imploded.
That’s not what happened, though. Instead, two US adminstrations went out of their way to convince Russia and China they had nothing to gain and everything to lose by accepting their assigned places in a US-centric international order. Russia and China have few interests in common and many reasons for conflict; they’ve spent much of their modern history glaring at each other across a long and contentious mutual border; they had no reason to ally with each other, until the United States gave them one. Nor did either nation have any reason to reach out to the Muslim theocracy in Iran—quite the contrary—until they began looking for additional allies to strengthen their hand against the United States.
One of the basic goals of effective foreign policy is to divide your potential enemies against each other, so that they’re so busy worrying about one another that they don’t have the time or resources to bother you. It’s one thing, though, to violate that rule when the enemies you’re driving together lack the power to threaten your interests, and quite another when the resource base, population, and industrial capacity of the nations you’re driving together exceeds your own. The US government’s harebrained pursuit of neoconservative policies has succeeded, against the odds, in creating a sprawling Eurasian alliance with an economic and military potential significantly greater than that of the US.
There have probably been worse foreign policy blunders in the history of the world, but I can’t think of one off hand.
You won’t read about that in the mainstream news media in the United States. At most, you’ll get canned tirades about how Russian president Vladimir Putin is a “brutal tyrant” who is blowing up children in Aleppo or what have you. “Brutal tyrant,” by the way, is a code phrase of the sort you normally get in managed media.
In the US news, it simply means “a head of state who’s insufficiently submissive to the United States.” Putin certainly qualifies as the latter; first in the Caucasus, then in the Ukraine, and now in Syria, he’s deployed military force to advance his country’s interests against those of the United States and its allies. I quite understand that the US political class isn’t pleased by this, but it might be helpful for them to reflect on their own role in making it happen.
The Russian initiative isn’t limited to Syria, though. Those of my readers who only pay attention to US news media probably don’t know yet that Egypt has now joined Russia’s side. Egyptian and Russian troops are carrying out joint military drills, and reports in Middle Eastern news media have it that Egyptian troops will soon join the war in Syria on the side of the Syrian government. If so, that’s a game-changing move, and probably means game over for the murky dealings the United States and its allies have been pursuing in that end of the Middle East.
China and Russia have very different cultural styles when it comes to exerting power. Russian culture celebrates the bold stroke; Chinese culture finds subtle pressure more admirable. Thus the Chinese have been advancing their country’s interests against those of the United States and its allies in a less dramatic but equally effective way. While distracting Washington’s attention with a precisely measured game of “chicken” in the South China Sea, the Chinese have established a line of naval bases along the northern shores of the Indian Ocean from Myanmar to Djibouti, and contracted alliances in East Africa and South Asia. Those of my readers who’ve read Alfred Thayer Mahan and thus know their way around classic maritime strategy will recognize exactly what’s going on here.
Most recently, China has scored two dramatic shifts in the balance of power in the western Pacific. My American readers may have heard of President Rodrigo Duterte of the Phillippines; he’s the one who got his fifteen minutes of fame in the mainstream media here when he called Barack Obama a son of a whore. The broader context, of course, got left out. Duterte, like the heads of state of many nominal US allies, resents US
interference in his country’s affairs, and at this point he has other options. His outburst was followed in short order by a trip to Beijing, where he and China’s President Xi signed multibillion-dollar aid agreements and talked openly about the end of a US-dominated world order.
A great many Americans seem to think of the Phillippines as a forgettable little country off somewhere unimportant in the Third World. That’s a massive if typical misjudgment. It’s a nation of 100 million people on a sprawling archipelago of more than 7,000 islands, commanding the entire southern end of the South China Sea and a vast swath of the western Pacific, including crucial maritime trade routes. As a US ally, it was a core component of the ring of encirclement holding Chinese maritime forces inside the island ring that walls China’s coastal waters from rest of the Pacific basin. As a Chinese ally, it holds open that southern gate to China’s rapidly expanding navy and air force.
Duterte wasn’t the only Asian head of state to head for Beijing in recent months. Malaysia’s prime minister was there a few weeks later, to sign up for another multibillion-dollar aid package, buy Chinese vessels for the Malaysian navy, and make acid comments about the way that, ahem, former colonial powers keep trying to interfere in Malaysian affairs. Malaysia’s a smaller nation than the Phillippines, but even more strategically placed. Its territory runs alongside the northern shore of the Malacca Strait:
the most important sea lane in the world, the gateway connecting the Indian Ocean with the Pacific, through which much of the world’s seaborne crude oil transport passes.
All these are opening moves. Those who are familiar with the rise and fall of global powers know what the next moves are; those who don’t might want to consider reading my book Declineand Fall, or my novel Twilight’s Last Gleaming, which makes the same points in narrative form. Had Hillary Clinton won this month’s election, we might have moved into the endgame much sooner. Her enthusiasm for overthrowing governments during her stint as Secretary of State, and her insistence that the US should impose a no-fly zone over Syria in the teeth of Russian fighters and state-of-the-art antiaircraft defenses, suggests that she could have filled the role of my fictional president Jameson Weed, and sent US military forces into a shooting war they were not realistically prepared to win.
We seem to have dodged that bullet. Even so, the United States remains drastically overextended, with military bases in more than a hundred countries around the world and a military budget nearly equal to all other countries’ put together. Meanwhile, back here at home, our country is falling apart. Leave the bicoastal bubble where the political class and their hangers-on spend their time, and the United States resembles nothing so much as the Soviet Union in its last days: a bleak and dilapidated landscape of economic and social dysfunction, where the enforced cheerfulness of the mainstream media contrasts intolerably with the accelerating disintegration visible all around.
That could have been prevented. If the United States had responded to the end of the Cold War by redirecting the so-called “peace dividend” toward the rebuilding of our national infrastructure and our domestic economy, we wouldn’t be facing the hard choices before us right now—and in all probability, by the way, Donald Trump wouldn’t just have been elected president. Instead, the US political class let itself be caught up in neoconservative fantasies of global dominion, and threw away that opportunity. The one bright spot in that dismal picture is that we have another chance.
History shows that there are two ways that empires end. Their most common fate involves clinging like grim death to their imperial status until it drags them down. Spain’s great age of overseas empire ended that way, with Spain plunging into a long era of economic disarray and civil war. At least it maintained its national unity; the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires both finished their imperial trajectories by being partitioned, as of course did the Soviet Union. There are worse examples; I’m thinking here of the Assyrian Empire of the ancient Middle East, which ceased to exist completely—its nationhood, ethnicity, and language dissolving into those of its neighbors—once it fell.
Then there’s the other option, the one chosen by the Chinese in the fifteenth century and Great Britain in the twentieth. Both nations had extensive overseas empires, and both walked away from them, carrying out a staged withdrawal from imperial overreach. Both nations not only survived the process but came through with their political and cultural institutions remarkably intact. This latter option, with all its benefits, is still available to the United States.
A staged withdrawal of the sort just described would of course be done step by step, giving our allies ample time to step up to the plate and carry the costs of their own defense. Those regions that have little relevance to US national interests, such as the Indian Ocean basin, would see the first round of withdrawals, while more important regions such as Europe and the northwest Pacific would be later on the list. The withdrawal wouldn’t go all the way back to our borders by any means; a strong presence in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and a pivot to our own “near abroad” would be needed, but those would also be more than adequate to maintain our national security.
Meanwhile, the billions upon billions of dollars a year that would be saved could be put to work rebuilding our national infrastructure and economy, with enough left over for a Marshall Plan for Mexico—the most effective way to reduce illegal immigration to the United States, after all, is to help make sure that citizens of the countries near us have plenty of jobs at good wages where they already live. Finally, since the only glue holding the Russo-Chinese alliance together is their mutual opposition to US hegemony, winding up our term as global policeman will let Russia, China and Iran get back to contending with each other rather than with us.
Such projects, on the rare occasions they’re made, get shouted down by today’s US political class as “isolationism.” There’s a huge middle ground between isolationism and empire, though, and that middle ground is where most of the world’s nations stand as they face their neighbors. One way or another, the so-called “American century” is ending; it can end the hard way, the way so many other eras of global hegemony have ended—or it can end with the United States recognizing that it’s a nation among nations, not an overlord among vassals, and acting accordingly.
360 comments:
https://www.amazon.com/Retrotopia-Zygmunt-Bauman/dp/1509515321/ref=sr_1_sc_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1480531442&sr=8-1-spell&keywords=retrotopica
11/30/16, 10:49 AM
Unknown said...
11/30/16, 11:24 AM
Robert Tweedy said...
"There have probably been worse foreign policy blunders in the history of the world, but I can’t think of one off hand."
I can help here. The one that comes to mind is Wilhelmine Germany's determination to dominate Europe, to include European Russia, via an army that that all Europe feared and a navy that Britain feared. Their foreign policy was based almost entirely on those. We can see where that got us. Some might say that their particular foreign policy was a legacy of Otto von Bismarck. Either way, it was a disaster for Germany Europe and the world. It looks like history is rhyming again.
11/30/16, 11:48 AM
Jason Heppenstall said...
I suppose, on reflection, that maybe this is just a side effect of the legacy media losing its power to the alternative narratives that have stepped into the void. It certainly seems that they are doubling down on this theme of outrage, raving about "fake news" and "Russian hackers" and all the rest of it. I wonder if they realise how utterly silly they are looking.
In other news, I'm happy to announce that my first fiction novel has just been published by Club Orlov Press. "Seat of Mars" is a racy story about a bunch of diverse characters as they deal with a sudden end of the age of abundance. Many of the themes contained within will be familiar to readers of the Archdruid Report, and you'll be relieved to hear that the narrative occupies the broad but sparsely populated area between an ascent to the stars and all-out apocalypse. The book is available here.
11/30/16, 11:48 AM
Grebulocities said...
Left-wing opponents of the mainstream Democratic Party (e.g. Counterpunch, Truthdig)
Libertarians (David Stockman, Ron Paul)
Paleoconservatives (Paul again, a variety of sites with words like "liberty" or "patriot")
Neofascists/neo-Nazis (Daily Stormer, VDare)
Anti-war sites with no other political positions, including sites for veterans who know what war looks like
Conspiracy theorists ranging from Alex Jones to UFO enthusiasts
Collapse blogs from all sorts of political positions
Actual fake news sites
Actual Russian-sponsored sites (RT, SputnikNews)
That is quite some list. I'll be searching through the ones I don't recognize in my ongoing quest to collect all the interesting political views I can. It's so convenient to have all of them in one place like that! Granted I'll have to filter out the neo-Nazis, conspiracy theorists, fake news, and uninteresting repeats of positions I already know about, but I'm more than willing to do that. Here's the URL for the list, for anyone who is interested. JMG, I think you should include this link in your article.
http://www.propornot.com/p/the-list.html?m=1
11/30/16, 12:07 PM
Brother Guthlac said...
11/30/16, 12:15 PM
Joel Caris said...
First of all, thank you for the shout out about Into the Ruins last week. Very much appreciated, as are all the people who visited, subscribed, ordered copies of the issue, and so on. The response to the project has been really gratifying! And as always, let me urge everyone reading to consider a letter to the editor once you've had time to absorb the material--especially all the fine commenters here! I really loved the letters section in this most recent issue and want to keep that momentum going (I'll probably put a prompt of some kind up on the journal's blog sometime soon, since it worked so well last time).
As for the subject at hand, I have admittedly been somewhat clueless about geopolitics and military affairs for much of my life. Your occasional writings here on the subjects have helped me to broaden my view and have a bit more of a basic grasp. This post is particularly illuminating, clear and concise; I really appreciate it.
I certainly have my concerns about Trump's presidency, but one of the possible silver linings from his election is this exact possibility of the beginnings of an ordered retreat from empire. I'm not super optimistic, to be honest, but it at least feels possible now, whereas before I thought our death grip to the end was largely inevitable. So here's my question to you: do you see any particularly ideal openings at the moment for activism or voter input around this idea? Are there particular pressure points you think are more clearly available with Trump that we might best focus on pushing?
I've been thinking for the last few weeks about political strategy around a Trump presidency. One of my concerns with people on the left and Democrats--of which I'm still more aligned than conservatives and Republicans--is that so many seem to have not even listened to, paid attention, or actually in any way studied or examined Trump and his campaign. I've seen a lot of talking points and expressed concerns about things that many Congressional Republicans stand for or advocate but that Trump himself has aligned in the opposite direction. Any attempts to make the best of a Trump presidency that aren't based in at least some understanding of the man's actual positions and stances (which are in many instances quite different from establishment Republicans) strike me as doomed to failure due to poor strategy. If you don't pay attention to what the man says, how are you going to effectively exploit pressure points between him and Congressional Republicans?
(I should take a moment to note that, yes, Trump has contradicted himself regularly and we simply don't yet know what his administration is going to look like, but I see far too many complete and utter misunderstandings of him from people who freely admit they've never listened to one of his speeches and have barely exposed themselves to him outside of the mainstream media's presentation, as well as liberal media.)
So I'll loop back around. Obviously, part of the strategy is attempting to get the idea of an orderly retreat from empire out into the national conversation, even if that means an end run around the establishment media. But do you think there are other forms of activism or advocacy that might be particularly effective just now? Is the potential for normalization of our relationship with Russia a good place to apply pressure?
11/30/16, 12:20 PM
Lisa said...
It seems to me that there are cases in which results are better using random chance to make decisions, rather than thoughtful, well-meaning rationales... and perhaps random chance is also better than (posited) good intentions of people who have a fundamentally delusional world view (e.g. economists).
There's a philosophy where when things are sufficiently gummed up, throwing all the cards in the air and taking your chances with the outcome is a better option than the current situation. You have to have little to lose... probably things will not improve but at least you'll have a different set of problems... a change is as good as a rest?
11/30/16, 12:33 PM
thecrowandsheep said...
Here is my card:
1. Learning from history
2. Identifying false binary
3. Recognition and acceptance of limits
4. Lampooning mainstream media
5. Analysis of events as they are; not how they should be
6. Pointing out the warm fuzzy vs cold prickly in contemporary language
7. Seeing which way the wind is blowing in current affairs
8. ... er
I've missed something haven't I? For Fukuyama's sake...
11/30/16, 12:43 PM
Kari Barber said...
11/30/16, 12:44 PM
David, by the lake said...
From what I can see, most of the energy on the leftward end of things appears to be going into promoting the adoption of a popular vote mechanism and dispensing with our electoral college system so that no demagogic populist can ever again be elected President (face-palm).
Minding our own business, harboring our resources, and promoting the welfare of our citizenry seems like such a common-sense strategy...
11/30/16, 1:30 PM
Gottfried Wilhelm Melvin Hicks-Leibniz said...
I tend to think that a "hard Empirexit" is in the cards rather than a gradual pullback.
Putin smells blood, leaving little doubt in my mind that he will lean back and let Trump muddle through.
Putin is seizing this 2 month window of opportunity to re-shape the future of the ME.
The fallout from however the dust settles in Syria will likely have immediate and irreparable consequences on American hegemony.
11/30/16, 1:32 PM
latheChuck said...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/us-military-bases-around-the-world-119321
But, in sympathy with Varun's comment at the tail end of last week's comment, it probably doesn't make much difference at this point.
11/30/16, 1:53 PM
Lucullus said...
However, your article brings up bigger issues than party politics. It makes me wonder how much Trump believes the standard MSN narrative. Regardless, I sincerely doubt any politician will level with the people and admit we are in an irreversible decline. Instead of riding the wave, they will fight against it leading to the Assyrian scenario that you detailed.
11/30/16, 1:55 PM
Ad Attacker said...
I've quoted your essays in the past, but this one I will be shouting from the rooftops!
Jim, an Ad Attacker
11/30/16, 1:58 PM
Phil Knight said...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-12/portugal-open-to-china-investment-in-azores-as-u-s-sway-wanes
11/30/16, 2:40 PM
Archimedes39 said...
The entirety of the leadership of the two major parties, together with the MIC, have a huge vested interest in NOT changing the "We are Number One" mindset..."Full Spectrum Dominance" remains the watchword, as it has almost become a national pathology, immune to remedial treatment.
11/30/16, 2:43 PM
nuku said...
Excellent wide-angle analysis of the current military/political landscape.
Data Point:
Here in New Zealand, we‘ve just had a visit from the outgoing USA vice-president. Our historic opposition to visits by USA Navy ships, based on our anti-nuke stance, has been ended by the current neoconservative government:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/10/17/us-navy-warship-to-visit-new-zealand-ending-30-year-stalemate.html
Meanwhile wealthy Chinese are in New Zealand busy buying up everything they can. This is their “bolt-hole” in case things get ugly, and a good place to launder profits from corruption back on the mainland, again with the collusion of the current NZ government.
It definitely feels like the USA, with the collusion of our home-grown neocons, is trying to re-establish its influence in the Pacific.
My gut feeling is the USA Empire is not going to go down gracefully.
11/30/16, 2:43 PM
Matt Holbert said...
11/30/16, 3:02 PM
GHung said...
Meanwhile, there have been plenty of letters to the local paper demanding things like a Constitutional Convention that will return America to its Christian greatness. Not sure the Russians and Chinese worry about that sort of thing either. We got a letter from my Wife's Temple the other day suggesting they may begin sending out their correspondence in "anonymous" envelopes (no Hebrew, etc. on the outside). They want to make sure it isn't discarded as junk mail, I suppose.
Plenty of reasons to be a bit nervous these days, but that ain't my style. Flying under the radar while staying locked-and-loaded seems to make more sense, here in Trump-fanatic country.
11/30/16, 3:20 PM
Bruno B. L. said...
11/30/16, 3:32 PM
wolfbay said...
11/30/16, 3:34 PM
Armata said...
11/30/16, 4:01 PM
Armata said...
There are reports beginning to surface in the Russian media of possible talks between China, Russia and the incoming Trump administration to restructure America’s sovereign debts. As you and others have pointed out, the US government is effectively bankrupt. Trump’s experience in negotiating bankruptcy settlements involving his business ventures may come in very handy at some point in the near future.
11/30/16, 4:19 PM
Greg Reynolds @ Riverbend said...
Greg
11/30/16, 4:28 PM
Kevin Price said...
On another note, I finished reading your new book, "The Secret of the Temple" today. Wow! I will definitely be rereading. We should definitely spend energy rediscoving that knowledge in this time of decline. Thanks for lots of good food for thought and fuel for action.
11/30/16, 4:35 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Unknown, you're most welcome.
Robert, okay, fair enough. That's certainly in the same ballpark.
Jason, I'm beginning to think I need to do a post on the cultivation of outrage as an addictive emotional drug. Congrats on the book, btw -- I trust you'll be sending a review copy to Into the Ruins to bring it to the attention of deindustrial SF fans.
Grebulocities, it is quite a list, isn't it? The only thing the blogs on it have in common, as I noted, is that they don't buy into the neoconservative groupthink that dominates Washington DC these days. Boris Badenov really gets around...
Brother G., the US did a fine job of marketing voluntary poverty to people during the Second World War, without benefit of religious (or "spiritual") motivation. National survival will do it, too. I personally think that if a president got up on the podium and called all of us to rise to the challenge of an era of national sacrifice and belt-tightening, he'd get a huge positive response and a massive wave of popularity. Why? Because beneath the pasted-on smiles, a huge number of Americans are sick of the lives of meaningless excess that have been pushed on them, and would gladly cash them in for a sense of meaning, purpose, and challenge.
Joel, you're most welcome. Yes, I think that normalizing our relationship with Russia and backing out of kneejerk militarism is a great way to apply pressure. It's also a very good wedge issue for people on your end of the political spectrum to apply; as I noted here two weeks ago, that's a huge issue out here in flyover country, and could be an issue on which the left could reach out to the people who voted for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The difficulty, of course, is that the left will have to learn from its failures, and as you've noted, an astonishing number of people on your end of things seem unwilling to even attempt that.
Lisa, no, that's not what I'm saying. This notion you have that policy "isn't a thing" makes me scratch my head and wonder what you think politics is about. Let me be even more precise: politics is about policy. It's about what kind of decisions the government is going to make about issues that matter. Should the US confront the Russians in Syria, or negotiate? That's a question of policy. Should the US have a national health care plan, or not? That's a question of policy. Should the US maintain its current trade treaties, or cancel them? That's a question of policy -- and those questions matter. They shape the lives of all three hundred million of us in this country.
I should probably clarify something else, too. I don't feel strongly against Hillary Clinton. I couldn't care less what kind of person she is. I feel very strongly against the policies that she pursued as a senator and secretary of state and advocated for as a presidential candidate. If policy isn't a "thing" for you, may I encourage you to wake up, rub the sleep out of your eyes, and look around?
Crowandsheep, you definitely get a prize -- tonight's gold star, in fact. ;-)
Kari, thank you!
David, every commonsense idea begins as a blasphemous heresy mouthed by some madman on the fringes of society. So the start's been made!
11/30/16, 4:43 PM
John Michael Greer said...
LatheChuck, duly noted. I'll have to check into that.
Lucullus, we'll see. As I noted in response to Brother Guthlac, remembering how people in this country responded to a call to shared sacrifice in the Second World War, I really do think it's possible that a president who leveled with the people and stuck by his guns might win reelection in a landslide.
Ad Attacker, you're welcome, thank you, and please do shout it from the rooftops!
Phil, highly pertinent. A Chinese naval and air base in the Azores would be a logical next acquisition for them -- I'd also look for a treaty or two with a nation or two in West Africa, and perhaps one of the smaller South American countries with an Atlantic coast.
Archimedes, we won't know for sure unless remedial treatment is attempted, will we?
Nuku, I see things a little differently here. The US is treating New Zealand as a fallback for naval basing, as it loses control of the South China Sea and has to look at the possibility of new shipping routes running south of Australia instead of through the Malacca Straits. So the move to get US naval vessels docking rights in your country is part of the retreat.
Ghung, I didn't mention it because it wasn't relevant to the subject of this week's post. Sure, we have a byzantine system of electing a president here in the US; successful candidates grasp that and work with it, failed candidates buy into their own groupthink. That would be just as true if we didn't have the electoral college and the coastal population centers could steamroller the less populous regions.
Bruno, exactly. It seems to me that getting rid of our empire is the first step toward getting back some of our democracy.
Wolfbay, you're welcome. There really is another choice, and the more people talk about that, the more likely it becomes that we'll take it.
Armata, yes, I noted that. My working guess, unless the Democrats can get past wallowing in their hurt feelings and learn from their mistakes, is that the GOP will add to its Congressional majority in 2018 and, if Trump can deliver on at least some of his promises, he'll win in a 1936-style landslide in 2020.
11/30/16, 4:57 PM
Barrabas said...
Our best bet would have been to ally with the populous Indonesia to the north as a buffer against china , but that ship sailed long ago with the repeated wedges driven by the u.s between us in order to maintain their regional dominance . We are at an all time low with indonesia , their foreign minister recently stating " there are only three things we have to remember with indo- australian relations ...the three B's .... beef , boats and Bali !"
They are currently taking huge infrastructure loans from china and buying russian fighter jets , i guess cordwainer smith had it skun after all. Still , our conservative political class is still sufficiently british and slippery sneaky to be quietly climbing into bed with china while loudly trumpeting the ANZUS treaty , we shall see .
The chinese continue to buy huge tracts of farmland and are shipping a lot of produce directly home by air , from all accounts .
11/30/16, 5:01 PM
barry_NZ said...
I am afraid they turn to blogs (as we all do) for news and opinions that confirm their world views. However bad and biased the mainstream media are, the average popular blog is an order of magnitude worse.
11/30/16, 5:02 PM
fudoshindotcom said...
It's long past time for the U.S. to get it's fingers out of everyone else's pie. I hope that will happen before those fingers get slapped, or worse. Taking Hillary Clinton and her cohorts as an example, it may well be that our privileged class is far enough down the rabbit-hole of delusion that no return is possible. Mainstream media does do a fair job of exposing just what depth they've reached. Honestly, did they really expect anyone to believe that the airport meeting between Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch had nothing to do with the investigation of Hillary's emails, for instance? That amounts to placing a perfect Muscovy specimen on a table and then expecting to convince us that what we're looking at is, in fact, not a duck at all. Of course this is just my opinion.
11/30/16, 5:02 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Greg, the thing is, a lot of the sites on that list are right out there on the fringes with me, and they've just gotten one heck of a lot of free publicity out of it. I feel left out. ;-)
Kevin, thank you! I hadn't heard that copies had already gotten to the public yet -- I just got my first two author's copies a few days ago. (If anyone's curious about the book in question, the details are here.
11/30/16, 5:04 PM
Old Professor said...
11/30/16, 5:04 PM
donalfagan said...
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/11/29/donald-trump-and-swamp-endless-war
11/30/16, 5:15 PM
patriciaormsby said...
Date: Sunday, December 4
Time: 12:00 noon to basically sundown.
Place: The Asakawa Kompira Shrine, 1st little mountaintop west of JR Takao Station (A map is posted on the Green Wizards site, and I'll see if I can link to it below).
Bring: something yummy to share (potluck) and dress warmly.
The whole shrine-associated priesthood will be present with their regalia, there will be guitars and singing, and the press, which is showing an interest in the "foreign priestesses" again.
The announcement from Prof. Evanov, who is a main organizer of the community, included:
Caitlin writes, "At the picnic this coming Sunday (Dec 4) a TV
Tokyo camera crew will be filming me and Pat the gaijin kannushi for
some Tokoro George program. Would be great if you could all be there
and share in the fun!! Actually we need to make it look as though we
have some sort of a following so bring your friends especially if they
always wanted to be on TV." Yoko has suggested that we also sing some
songs again. Yoko and I will bring our guitars and we ask anyone who
comes to the picnic to bring their voices!
11/30/16, 5:16 PM
Varun Bhaskar said...
I've been watching the American political scene since the elections and subsequent fallout. What we have right are growing political vacuums all over the country. I thought at first that my feelings were just a reaction to finding myself, for the first time in my life, without political representation in my own government, but then I realized that I wasn't the only one. If many of us are feeling this way, that means we're in a situation were there is a ton of space in the political sphere. This much room, this fast isn't healthy.
I think you're right Archdruid, the US dealt itself out of the empire game with this election. The instability we're going to experience internally is going to make power projection impossible. We may just stumble our way out of the control of our empire, but then again one never knows with a demagogue involved. I am not hopeful, because the one thing I know about American culture is that we double down at the worst time. Still we'll see. Maybe we'll be the third great empire to walk away.
Regards,
Varun
11/30/16, 5:16 PM
rapier said...
Admittedly it will take some time for content to shift as those who are not team players are ushered out the door. Heck I bet the WaPo will forget all about this Putin is the devil stuff soon enough, unless Trump turns on him. All in all there was never a more perfect marriage than the one Trump can give corporations and really they must be sick and tired of all that faux liberal, diverstiy and kumbaya stuff. Ultimately the marriage of the likes of the Clinton's and Obama was an unnatural one.
11/30/16, 5:17 PM
patriciaormsby said...
My thanks to David Trammel for his work in obtaining that link.
Some photos of the Asakawa Kompira Shrine and its priesthood are here: http://teresamcguffey.com/greenwizards.org/?q=node/34926
And Boris Badenov! I'm laughing so hard I'm having trouble staying upright. Someone over at the Saker suggested getting permission to use him and Natasha as their logo. Now I've gotta go read the article.
11/30/16, 5:22 PM
kosmodude said...
http://phys.org/news/2016-11-diamond-age-power-nuclear-batteries.html
How did you know? :^)
11/30/16, 5:30 PM
whomever said...
BTW, the interesting thing to watch is going to be Australia. I'm going to bet money that at some point in the next 15-20 years they are going to realize that as a matter of survival they are going to have to come done on China's side on some sort of US/China issue (I'm Australian, BTW, though have lived a lot of places).
And of course climate change is going to make it all so much worse. 28 million desperate Saudis fleeing a country that imports 100% of its food aren't exactly going to be easy to deal with by anyone. Since you mention Mexico, remember also that oil revenues (Pemex) are a substantial portion of their budget and is in decline. So it's hard to be optimistic there.
11/30/16, 5:33 PM
Moshe Braner said...
11/30/16, 5:36 PM
Kevin Warner said...
I have given up on newspapers here and the TV news is just getting bizarre. When a maybe-Russian airstrike destroys a hospital in Aleppo with the "White helmets" pulling an uncrushed child from the rubble, that is called a story (of sorts). When the same damn thing happens literally day after day, week after week, then one is forced to conclude that the entire city of Aleppo is made up of hospitals and it population made up of children and "White Helmet" rescuers. Uhhh, no! I may be dumb but I'm not stupid so yes, I can recognize a poorly executed propaganda campaign. This is why I read blogs like yours in the hope of achieving historical perspective and having a lifeline to reason and reality.
I regret to say that my own reading is that your political establishment will only double down in the face of cascading failure, both internally and internationally, with the optimistic words ever on their lips "But this time, it will be different!". In other words, everything will continue on until it cannot anymore. When those Americans that live in the coastal enclaves feel the same amount of pain that is felt in the rest of the country, perhaps then the country will decide to change course but by then it will be far too late. I suppose that if the United States ever did dissolve as suggested in your novel "Twilight's Last Gleaming", then it epitaph would have to read. "It never had to be this way!"
11/30/16, 5:39 PM
David, by the lake said...
Thank you for that link! It is fascinating to read about us from an outside perspective. Some of the quotes that stood out for me:
"Elites have burdened [Americans] with $20 trillion in debt, of which nearly $6.5 trillion belongs to foreign states, but the country itself factually never saw this money, never saw it being put to use for development. [Instead], the debt has been used to pay off interest on old debts, and to line the pockets of privileged banks and funds, paying them interest on US debt [accumulated in] quantitative easing programs."
"And the goals of these people are the same ones they pursued as they fought for Hillary Clinton's victory: to delay as much as possible the inevitable, and to preserve the status quo for as long as possible."
Those poor Americans!
11/30/16, 5:40 PM
foodnstuff said...
11/30/16, 5:41 PM
Nastarana said...
I can't but wonder who has been financing neo-con think tanks and journals all these decades? The place to start with the MSM might be to bring a few anti-trust cases against media conglomerates.
Give up the overseas interventions and restore our republic sounds like a meme which could take off. We should repeat it everywhere. A data point: I rent the house I live in from a guy who has a big flag out front of his house and an impressive array of hunting weapons, and I heard him say that we need to stop invading other countries.
11/30/16, 5:47 PM
Shane W said...
one thing where the Berniecrats could have an outsized effect is in encouraging Bernie to do as he said he would, and make common cause with Trump on the issues that they are in accord. Trump mentioned Bernie getting screwed in the primaries, as well as their similarities on certain issues. Trade, foreign relations, Wall Street/crony capitalism, come to mind. These are issues where the entire establishment, GOP & Dem, is against Trump, and he needs all the support he can get. If someone is amongst the Bernie Bros (and gals), and can somehow plant a bug in their ear that these issues are far too important not to reach across the aisle and work to effect positive change, it could go a long way. I'd love to see a "Nixon Goes to China" redux: "Bernie Goes to Trump Tower" Surely the two New Yorkers can find some accord? I must admit, I'm concerned about some of Trump's cabinet picks, and the way he seems to be selecting strictly w/in the GOP. I'm apprehensive.
11/30/16, 5:52 PM
Armata said...
11/30/16, 5:54 PM
Armata said...
11/30/16, 6:03 PM
pygmycory said...
Trudeau and his cabinet just approved Kinder-Morgan and Enbridge Line 3 pipelines, although it also banned the Enbridge Northern Gateway and tankers on the north coast. Assorted groups here in BC have vowed to stop Kinder-Morgan, and so my email has been deluged with assorted petitions, letter-writing campaigns etc, some of which I've signed and/or passed around.
Trudeau just broke an election promise to reform the approval process and run Kinder-Morgan through the new. But he didn't reform it, and Kinder-Morgan went through the old process which many here view as a sham.
I'm wondering if he's bitten off more than he can chew, given the amount of unceded First Nations land the proposed pipeline runs through, often the territory of groups that are bitterly opposed to the pipeline.
There's also a BC election coming up in the spring. All told, I suspect things will get interesting here.
11/30/16, 6:11 PM
Jeff Thomas said...
Four years ago Russia had a friendly government in the Ukraine, and while their allies in the Assad regime were facing a rebellion, it was not yet clear that they could not win the conflict on their own. Today, Russia and its proxies are clinging to scraps of Eastern Ukraine, Russia is engaging in expensive military adventurism to try to salvage Syria, and rapidly draining its national financial reserves. And the only real benefit Russia has gotten (aside from a bit of distraction from their internal economic woes) is the ability to continue using a couple of naval bases that they've had for decades.
It is also worth noting of the main reasons that Russia has been able to use air power with impunity in Syria is that the USA has chosen not to provide MANPADS-type weapons to the Syrian opposition - presumably due to the (likely well founded) fear that the leftovers might subsequently wind up in the hands of folks who would use them in ways that the USA wouldn't like very much.
11/30/16, 6:25 PM
Warren said...
11/30/16, 6:31 PM
Twilight said...
I suspect they're having a Wile E. Coyote moment, trying not to look down.
11/30/16, 6:41 PM
Gordon Cutler said...
11/30/16, 6:46 PM
Repent said...
https://youtu.be/zqIt93dDG1M?t=3s
Or the equally doomy Hills group presentation that the price of oil is going to zero by the year 2022, because net energy available to society due to peak oil is going to zero by 2022.
https://youtu.be/k7gJcfjyFpA?t=1s
Surely you've touched bases both here and elsewhere a hundred times on peak oil, net energy, catabolic collapse and so forth. Still, it is hard not to be skeptical that there won't be a hard landing soon, and that a gradual decline and 'walking away from empire' is the most likely outcome?
11/30/16, 6:48 PM
patriciaormsby said...
I was unaware of China's moves around the Indian Ocean. That somehow has not made the news in Japan, nor has the sudden demonetization and chaos in India. I have been following the Syrian saga for quite a while, being overwhelmed with work this week and on vacation from most of the news, did not realize Egypt had decided to send troops to help Syria. Thank you for filling me in!
I agree with everything you are saying here, and am considering to whom I can send this, who isn't so traumatized by the events of the past month that it wouldn't be salt in a wound. Nonetheless, if they push me hard enough, I will recommend them to read this.
I love how you put a name to the dragon that just suffered a minor defeat and is now angrily lashing out indiscriminately (with the Japanese media now toeing the line again I see): the failed Neocon consensus. Oh, and in congratulating the Saker on receiving the award for journalistic integrity that really counts, I put in a good word for you and also our dear Dmitry Orlov who has also somehow been overlooked for the honor.
11/30/16, 6:54 PM
Unknown said...
Thank you for yet another insightful and relevant essay on the most important issues of our times. I hope you never tire of leadership, and I hope your lack of prominence on blacklists saves you the trouble of fighting off clueless hackers (much worse than trolls, unfortunately, but luckily also less numerous).
I stopped watching the mainstream media years ago, after tolerating the usual 5 minutes of news followed by sports (which I hate) and weather (here, usually wrong) and traffic (I'm directionally challenged, anyway haha) and then 5 minutes of celebrity gossip, all interspersed with commercials. I finally stopped watching it completely when I learned a lot of the actual news stories are really just more paid advertisements in disguise. I'm sure you've seen the typical segment touting the major medical breakthrough: XYZ Pharmaceuticals has discovered some new medication/technology to treat cancer/heart disease/depression.... guess what? XYZ Pharmaceuticals paid to have that "medical breakthrough" covered on the news. Any time any branded corporation is listed on the news in a positive light, there's a really good chance they paid for the publicity. After I learned that, I stopped watching completely (except when the weather comes on the TV at work, I occasionally stop to watch that... still wrong lol). I eventually switched to noncorporate media like Democracy Now and international news like BBC, RT, and Al Jazeera, but then I realized that life is better without TV, now I get all my news from the most paranoid corners of the internet ;) and of course here, too. I'll occasionally use a mainstream site's online page to fact-check a claim off a fringe site, but that's about it. I did tune in to some mainstream media during the election, and maybe it's because my blinders were off, but I couldn't deal with how partisan the channels were. There was a point in the election when it was clear Hilary was losing badly, and one particular channel kept showing vignettes of the sad Clinton supporters all night, without a single report from the Trump side. Not one. Even when it was obvious she lost. I can't handle that kind of tunnel vision. I had to switch back and forth between channels to create the illusion of total coverage. That was my last night listening to a pundit for what will be a very long time.
Your report of the alliance between China, Russia, and Iran is ominous. We can only hope that Trump drops the neocon agenda and finds other things to do besides wage war. I have hope but only a small hope. While it's so easy to see that the US has been very aggressive in the past, it's very easy to paint the picture of Russia as a victim, an innocent bystander caught in the middle of a terrible mess. I find myself thinking it a lot. We all need to remember that the real reason for the neocon agenda is of course limits, and the US has been using military force to control access to the best remaining reserves of dwindling resources (oil, for example) and therefore influence supply and demand and prices (mainly to drive corporate profits). However, Russia and China are probably even more aware of the position we are all in, as outsiders they have less access to resources than we do and are probably acutely aware of the trajectory of civilization. I don't see many reasons to believe that we have peace in our future. Even if we walk away from the Middle East and leave it to our rivals, get out of the empire business, and start paying full price for resources, we will still be on a planet where a bunch of nuclear powers are fighting over the Middle East's oil or Africa's rare earths or the Arctic's decaying bones. Nuclear fallout doesn't recognize international borders. Be ready for a bumpy ride.
Thanks again for this article and so many articles that create this atmosphere of sober discussion.
Sincerely
anotheramethyst
Jessi Thompson
11/30/16, 6:54 PM
Nathan said...
Another talking point the chattering class refuses to discuss is the blowback from their incessant yelling about identity politics for 18 months straight. Perhaps that's the reason "young white men" are coming to see themselves as an ethnic group with their own demands? I see the rise of the alt-right as an analog to the Eurasian alliance -- a bunch of traditionally hostile groups coming together to destroy a common foe, in this case the neoliberal media who insist on calling them the Arch-Villains of History.
Tyrants create the enemies that eventually overthrow them.
11/30/16, 7:00 PM
Tower 440 said...
We in Northeast Ohio are following Melbourne’s example by holding well-advertised monthly meetings.
The monthly joint meeting of the Green Wizards’ Benevolent and Protective Association, Tower Number 440, and Ruinmen’s Guild, Local 440 will be held at 11:30 AM on Wednesday, December 21, 2016. Our location is Ruko’s Family Restaurant, 9385 Mentor Avenue, Mentor, Ohio 44060, (440) 974-1914. Shining the Green Light! Public Welcome! Tables for Failed Scholars. Look for the table topper with the Green Wizard Hat. Contact us at [email protected].
Many thanks to John for the posting space on his blog.
11/30/16, 7:02 PM
EntropicDoom said...
For the military and its readiness to fight impossible wars, the critical issue is getting nothing for all the money spent on weapons systems. As a country and as a culture we can no longer create and manufacture ships, planes or anything military without huge cost overruns and disastrous results. The F-35 Lardbucket program is an insult to our past achievements. The Bradley fighting vehicle was a twenty-year boondoggle. The current crop of Navy ships, including the new Zumwalt class destroyer is a complete failure. From that pit of corruption to the painful reality of how the military is created and used is a national tragedy.
Other departments and other disasters are very apparent. The war of drugs is a failure. The loans to students are mounting to a new height of insanity. Health care is a swindle and a scam. Infrastructure is not getting repaired or replaced. In short, we are a national failure.
The incoming administration will continue the process, begun years ago, that the party coming into the White House scams the nation, installs their own criminals, never goes to prison, and steals everything is can get, through new laws and new programs in its allies favor.
Can we expect anyone or any organization surviving the trial of a presidential campaign to be anything but totally corrupt? The winner will get their chance to pick over the carcass for the next cycle. Some toes will get stepped on and many losers will protest their causes and their point of view to no avail.
In the long run, the United States is spent. Our economic system is bankrupt. The appetite for oil, for gas, for petroleum products is too high to operate in any other way but “happy motoring.” We cannot exist without a gigantic stream of imported oil feeding our cars, our bellies, our houses and our generators. We are addicted to petroleum for vehicle fuel, for home heating, for plastics, for fertilizers and for generating electricity. We cannot convert to any other life style or economic pattern without many changes and a complete national shakeup. America could not declare victory with a few garden plots. Most institutions will not survive the ordeal that is coming.
Russia is currently billed by the media as America's arch-enemy. But Russia has many inborn advantages. Its appetite for oil is much lower. It is a northern country that is not directly in the path of climate change like our seaboard. It can feed itself with food and with its oil. It has an underlying peasant culture that is hardy and strong. Militarily, it is designing and building practical weapons for a fraction of what the US does. Some of its systems are old and less vulnerable to EMP. As a continental power, it is not vulnerable to invasion from outside. A big army tried invasion a few years back and failed. In the past, Russians have been wise.
The US is over taxed militarily with too many far flung commitments and too much spent on graft, corruption and useless weapons. The all-volunteer army is scratching the bottom of the barrel for bodies and would not be able to fall back on conscription. The current American culture will not support a draft. A draft would take years to work out and in the meantime protests would fill the streets. The Navy is building poorly designed, too teched-out ships to fight the next war, at an exorbitant cost per ship.
In short, the US is perched on the brink of cultural collapse, monetary collapse, military defeat and can only rely on increased scams to keep its trajectory. Everything in American life comes down to a scam, a swindle, a steal of resources from the innocent to the more corrupt. The poor are penalized and the rich pretend they are invulnerable to the coming downturn. Buckle up, it's going to be a stormy ride.
11/30/16, 7:07 PM
canon fodder said...
From the FAQ section - Propaganda: “A systematic form of persuasion that attempts to influence the emotions, attitudes, opinions, and actions of specified target audiences for political, ideological, and religious purposes, through the controlled transmission of deceptive, selectively-omitting, and one-sided messages (which may or may not be factual) via mass and direct media channels.”
Sounds exactly like most mainstream media these days, and the recent election is a stellar example of it in action.
They never do define Russian propaganda, but do say Russian objectives are “To stabilize their structurally-unstable regime, on the one hand, and to Make Russia Great Again (as a new "Eurasian" empire stretching from Dublin to Vladisvostok), on the other. That means preserving Russian allies like Bashar al-Assad in Syria, breaking up the "globalist" EU, NATO, and US-aligned trade and defense organizations, and getting countries to join "Eurasianist" Russian equivalents instead... Or else.”
In a lot of ways, this sounds exactly like the geostrategic analysis you give in this post, as Russian and China struggle to find a way to counter American hegemony. Funny that the US acting “to stabilize [its own] structurally-unstable regime” is perfectly acceptable, but for anyone else, it’s propaganda.
Further digging may have revealed why The Archdruid Report didn’t make the list (other than it takes more than an honest 5th grade education to read it). It seems many of the sites listed were ones that were linked to, referenced by, or repeat posted by a site called Zero Hedge, and you haven’t been linked by them yet. This site, according to propornot, is ground zero for the Russian information insurgency, and cause for many of the ills in America today. Zero Hedge itself was probably targeted since its listed as one of the ten most popular financial blogs by Time Magazine (I know, sterling endorsement but these people read Time, not Zero Hedge) with page views north of 18m per month, and actually questioned American policy.
Part of what may be happening to the media is a reflection of the bifurcation of culture in America. We are increasingly divided along rural/urban lines and media markets are defined by urban areas. In my little chunk of fly-over America, the media moguls have lumped three cities (towns?) into a single media market, and even that doesn’t crack the top 100 media markets in America. Given that a majority of Americans live in urban areas, and urban areas are left/liberal leaning, it’s no surprise that the media caters to that audience and that advertising market.
As for the media effort put forth by Clinton vs that of Trump. What I don’t see widely published (though it may actually be considered behind the scenes) is that Clinton was a lousy product. I don’t care how much money you pour into advertising, it just won’t sell. Just ask the Coca-Cola Co about their New Coke advertising blitz.
Love the blog, keep up the good work.
11/30/16, 7:13 PM
canon fodder said...
11/30/16, 7:38 PM
Clay Dennis said...
11/30/16, 7:40 PM
Glenn said...
"Data Point:
Here in New Zealand, we‘ve just had a visit from the outgoing USA vice-president. Our historic opposition to visits by USA Navy ships, based on our anti-nuke stance, has been ended by the current neoconservative government:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/10/17/us-navy-warship-to-visit-new-zealand-ending-30-year-stalemate.html"
That will be good news for my remaining active duty shipmates in the U.S. Coast Guard. New Zealand was always a popular stop for our icebreakers going to and from the Antarctic. The NZ girls were legendary, and more than one marriage resulted from a port stop there. I have fond memories of the Hobart area myself, but always regretted NZ being off the table at the time of my service.
Glenn
in the Bramblepatch
Marrowstone Island
Salish Sea
Cascadia
11/30/16, 7:43 PM
Edward said...
I shared with him about our own rebellion against the Greatest Generation and their hard line attitudes about life and the world. The generation who won World War 2 certainly believed in American exceptionalism and American global hegemony because the American Way had prevailed. The baby boomers accepted the fact of American leadership but didn't value it enough to fight for it or sacrifice for it because we were too busy looking out for #1. The Millennials see how hollow and hypocritical this whole system has become.
I believe that the leaders who will emerge from this cohort will accelerate the trend away from empire. This may be due to their own warm fuzzy ideals rather than geopolitical calculus. Either way, I'm not so optimistic that any pull back will allow for a soft landing, but we will see.
11/30/16, 7:43 PM
Armata said...
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, from what I see, is a highly evolved woman and integral thinker with a great heart and unity vision.
From where I stand, she hardly looks like a shining example of a "highly evolved" spiritual being, especially when you consider Hillary's track record of corruption, sleaze, pathological lying and warmongering. For another entertaining example of clueless affluent liberals bowing down before the Church of Hillary, check out this celebrity Hillary supporter who tweeted
Sorry America, you didn't deserve her.
Or how about this shining example of Bobo idiocy
When people told me they hated Hillary Clinton or (far worse) that they were "not fans," I wish I had said in no uncertain terms: "I love Hillary Clinton. I am in awe of her. I am set free by her. She will be the finest world leader our galaxy has ever seen."
I want to reverse the usual schedule of things, then. We don't have to wait until she dies to act. Hillary Clinton's name belongs on ships, and airports, and tattoos. She deserves straight-up hagiographies and a sold-out Broadway show called RODHAM. Yes, this cultural canonization is going to come after the chronic, constant, nonstop "On the other hand" sexist hedging around her legacy. But such is the courage of Hillary Clinton and her supporters; we reverse patriarchal orders. Maybe she is more than a president. Maybe she is an idea, a world-historical heroine, light itself. The presidency is too small for her. She belongs to a much more elite class of Americans, the more-than-presidents. Neil Armstrong, Martin Luther King Jr., Alexander F*****g Hamilton.
Hillary Clinton did everything right in this campaign, and she won more votes than her opponent did. She won. She cannot be faulted, criticized, or analyzed for even one more second. Instead, she will be decorated as an epochal heroine far too extraordinary to be contained by the mere White House. Let that revolting president-elect be Millard Fillmore or Herbert Hoover or whatever. Hillary is Athena.
The comedy of it all is almost too much to bear without dying of laughter. I think its hilarious in the extreme watching all these affluent liberal yuppies lose it because Hillary Clinton lost the election. All these people are accomplishing is to show the world how deluded, out of touch and irrelevant they really are.
11/30/16, 8:04 PM
Bryan L. Allen said...
11/30/16, 8:22 PM
rakesprogress said...
It wouldn't surprise me if Putin were to put a big care package full of cash and weaponry in tomorrow's post. Would he not relish the opportunity for payback? Would Mexico as a Russian client state not be so much more interesting than the Cuban missile crisis, what with deep US economic entanglements and a long shared land border?
Sensible professional spy that he is, perhaps he's just waiting till after the inauguration. What's the hurry, really?
Or am I reading this wrongly? I'm not a disgruntled Clinton voter taking potshots at Trump, but I'm really concerned about this even as I have always thought NAFTA a horrid mistake.
11/30/16, 8:24 PM
SJ Bigger said...
First time poster here.
Thank you for saving me from a "waiting on an apocalypse" mindset several years ago. It was depressing.
I could go on and on about how big of an impact you've had on my worldview, but I'll sum it up with a big squeezy hug should we ever meet.
My wife is very anti-Trump. We had endless debates for the last year in which I tried my best to sway her...ultimately to no avail. My #1 argument was that a chance at "sacrificing the empire for the nation" is better than guaranteed "sacrifice of the nation for the empire".
And we now have that chance if we don't sit back and hope Trump does it on his own.
The silent majority has spoken. Will we realize our newfound power and create momentum and movements away from the gloablist/neocon agenda?
My inspiration in posting tonight is to share an unexpectedly optimistic and hopeful interview I listened to yesterday that synchronizes nicely with your essay tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeYDHfp9P_g
11/30/16, 8:39 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Barry, I don't think you've seen US media. Our news media is considerably worse than the average news-and-views blog.
Professor, the current US navy is very poorly provided with the smaller classes of ships -- so much money has been sucked down the black hole of the Gerald Ford-class carriers and a handful of other high-tech boondoggles -- and one of the consequences of the strategy I'm proposing is that frigates and the like would be far more useful than, say, carriers or littoral combat ships. Thus the naval buildup and a staged withdrawal from global hegemony are entirely compatible.
Donalfagan, thanks for the link.
Varun, the fact that there's so much empty space in the political sphere is a risk, but it's also a profound opportunity. Why do you think I've been hammering on political themes so heavily this year? My political posts get anything up to four times normal traffic, because people are desperate for some alternative to a failed business-as-usual model, and they're certainly not going to get it from either of the mainstream parties. The ideas that seize the public imagination now may be public policy twenty years from now.
Rapier, where on earth did you get the idea that I expect a steady march in any direction at all?
Patricia, I'm delighted to say that Naked Capitalism, one of my favorite Badenov sites, has already featured a Natasha Fatale pinup. It may be an idea whose time has come. "You get moose, I get squirrel!"
Kosmodude, thanks! I simply figured that the heat from decaying nuclear waste would be one of the few long-term energy sources they'd be likely to have around in 25th-century Meriga.
Whomever, three excellent points. You're right about the Phillippines, of course; I know about the US invasion and counterinsurgency war there, but I doubt most other Americans do.
Kevin, I think a lot of people are going to be lining up at the Clinton Foundation asking for a refund...
Foodnstuff, you're welcome and thank you! I think that's a great response, and I'd encourage every one of my readers to go visit a dozen blogs from the WaPo list -- the URL is http://www.propornot.com/p/the-list.html?m=1 -- and consider putting something in the tip jar if you like what you read.
Nastarana, oh my. I don't always agree with Lukacz, but he's always worth reading -- and in this case I won't argue at all. Do you have a spare link to that review?
11/30/16, 8:40 PM
Keith Huddleston said...
Long story short I'm going to buy myself the Solstice gift of Green Wizardry and the Grid Beam Book. I plan to make 2017 the year I really change my nest and garden in a very serious preparation for the Long Descent.
To try to tie this into this weeks topic at the end: I still content this last election was only about how much time we could buy. You seem very optimistic about how much we've bought, I'm more pessimistic -- but the real kicker is that working to make my lived environment a retro-topia is just about the most fun thing I can imagine.
11/30/16, 8:41 PM
Elros said...
I doubt that once US stops menacing Russia and China (Iran.. I do not know enough to make an educated guess), they will start quarrel between them. Putin and Xi proved to be cautious and experienced politicians. And more important, they have some big projects in common: BRICS, Asiatic Bank of Investments (if I recall correctly the name), the high speed cargo train from Shangai to Lissabon, the Asiatic Energy Ring...
But, it is possible that they will no go to the yugular of the US. I hope your country will have a good to reconstruct themselves physically and spiritually.
11/30/16, 8:47 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Pygmycory, I remember hearing some remarkable squeals of rapture from my more liberal Canadian friends when Justin Trudeau took office. Like Obama, of course, he talked a great line and then pursued business as usual for the benefit of his rich friends.
Jeff, I'm familiar with that argument, and to my mind it doesn't hold water. If you compare the Russian military response in the Georgian, Ukraine, and Syrian campaigns, what's immediately visible is a steady increase in effectiveness and in the scale and coordination of the units in action. The Georgian action, though successful, was pretty klutzy; Syria has been the opposite. US military observers insisted that there was no way the Russian air units in Syria would be able to maintain an adequate OPTEMP (operational tempo -- basically, rate of missions flown per unit), and then were dumbfounded as the Russian units kept up, for months, an OPTEMP that the US air force can't maintain for more than a short time. That's the mark of an expanding power, not a contracting one.
As for MANPADS, there's another reason the US doesn't provide them to the mercenaries and jihadi militants we're funding in Syria; if they did, Russia could turn around and supply equivalent weapons to armed groups in areas where the US air force is active, and their planes are a lot less expensive to replace than ours!
Warren, it's a weird mix of the two. A lot of Americans still embrace the last scraps of the old messianic fantasy about the US as the world's savior; many can't imagine a world in which the US isn't the most powerful nation on Earth; and yes, the "world citizen" business comes up now and again. Overt glorying in America's imperial conquests is rare in public.
Twilight, that strikes me as a very plausible analysis.
Gordon, no doubt that was it!
Repent, in 2009 McPherson insisted that there would be no cars on the roads by 2012. In 2010, if I remember correctly, he insisted that we'd all be dead by 2015. He's not even right as often as a broken clock -- so, yes, I assume that we'll still be around over a period of centuries. I also don't believe in the Great Pumpkin, by the way.
Patricia, I'm still astonished that they left out Dmitry. He's got to talk to Boris and Natasha, and get himself better publicity from Fearless Leader.
Jessi, I know it's going to be a rough ride whatever we do. I'm hoping that enough people will take constructive steps to keep us away from a worst case scenario. That's a gamble -- but why not take it?
Nathan, funny. As opposed to using a smokescreen of identity politics to prevent anyone from discussing policy, like certain news media I can think of!
Doom, so? Of course we're up against long odds. It seems more useful to me to try to influence the situation in a constructive direction than to sit there coming up with long lists of reasons why there's no hope left in elves or dying Numenor...
Canon Fodder, yeah, I've been linked regularly in Zero Hedge comment threads but not yet in their articles. Oh well. I'll see if Natasha can talk them into running an essay of mine one of these days.
11/30/16, 8:52 PM
cat said...
11/30/16, 9:13 PM
Jeannette Sage said...
Another window on the world that I try to follow, is the Dutch documentary series, broadcast every week on Dutch television, Backlight (Tegenlicht). One of the more remarkable episodes was one on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Have you heard of it?
Here is the link to the full, English-spoken/subtitled documentary, for those who are interested (46 rewarding minutes):
The Chinese World Order (VPRO Backlight).
The documentary dates from last March. In the meantime, many more countries have signed up to be a member, also Canada:
Canada Ignores Washington's Warnings, Joins China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
11/30/16, 9:20 PM
neil said...
11/30/16, 9:21 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Edward, I'm glad to hear you and your son have such conversations. That's one of the things that's needed to bridge the barrier of hostility between the generations and hopefully salvage something from the current mess.
Armata, I read the Lennyletter piece earlier, and have been trying to figure out how to comment on it here ever since. I'm still not sure if the author has a panting schoolgirl crush on Hillary Clinton, or if she's projecting her own floridly delusional ego fantasies and overinflated sense of cosmic importance onto the blank screen of a presidential candidate.
Bryan, thank you! I try to include the rest of the planet in my historical analysis, and China's a very rich source of historical lessons, as Spengler and Toynbee both realized.
Rakesprogress, I know. Russia and China both have got to be looking at the chaos into which exploitive trade agreements are driving Mexico, and rubbing their hands together. That's one of the reasons why I want to get the idea of a Marshall Plan for Mexico into circulation, to suggest another way to deal with the disparities along that border. I think it was Mexico's president Porfirio Diaz who said, "Poor Mexico -- so far from God, so close to the United States." Changing the dynamic of the relationship that inspired those words might help ward off some very ugly futures.
SJ, you're welcome and thank you!
Keith, glad to hear it. I'm aware that we may not have that much time, but it makes sense to sketch out options in case we do. Things are moving very quickly now -- I'll be posting something sometime soon about climate change, which is spinning out of control very rapidly at this point -- and so all our choices from here on out are gambles.
Elros, oh, I don't expect quarrels to arise immediately. It may wait, in fact, until both Putin and Xi have stepped down and someone else takes the helm in both countries. That said, remember how fast Russia and the United States went from allies to enemies after the Second World War!
Cat, that is to say, you've picked up all the usual talking points from the media and are chirping them back at me. Trump has already saved more working class jobs in the days since the election than Obama has done in eight years in office, you know. If you don't think that matters to the working classes, you might want to get out and meet some working class people. Beyond that -- well, we'll see, won't we?
Jeannette, yes, I've been following the AIIB story closely -- I'm glad to hear that you're doing so, as it's a hugely important story, a major sign of the twilight of the American empire.
Neil, true enough. Besides which, whipping people up with emotionally loaded buzzwords is a great way to keep them from thinking.
11/30/16, 9:28 PM
jbucks said...
I've anyway become suspicious over the years of the media because of how it often acts as a form of advertising (all the Best Of 2016 lists are out for films, books and music - go and buy them for Christmas! Articles in travel sections are often paid for by tourist boards of the various featured countries, etc etc) and I've been particularly disappointed by my newspaper of choice's reaction to the US presidential election.
The only response, it seems, is to read as much history and older books as possible, which is what I've been doing anyway over the past couple of years, but I just wanted to express the bad taste in my mouth about the release of the Washington Post list.
11/30/16, 9:50 PM
HalFiore said...
The problem I see occurring here, and frankly why I have stopped reading most blogs, and am slowly losing faith in this one, is that there develops a tendency for substituting normal sources of information for what looks to me like uncritical acceptance of "alternative" sources strictly for their, well, alternativeness. I know it's a fine distinction to maintain, but the combination of credulity of pretty dubious sources with an unfortunate tendency to become rigidly attached to an internal narrative of one's own creation leads to a syndrome I've come to internally refer to, borrowing from our esteemed host, as "senility of the blogosphere." It's a echo-chamber path I've seen too many blogs go down. It's downright tragic to see in one I've come to value as highly as this one.
The "free press" guaranteed by the Bill of Rights is an institution which has always had it's flaws, and has hit some pretty deep lows during it's history. As I said, it often does a pretty bad job, but has generally served, to a discriminating reader, and in the long run, to give as fair and accurate a picture of reality as any institution ever devised for the purpose. Yes, there has always been a bias toward those with the resources to "buy ink by the barrel," but it has, over time, developed methods for sourcing information and ensuring some modicum of accuracy that is being lost in the "new" media.
Dare I say it's one of those human institutions that Burke would have defended?
One would be a fool to accept the narrative presented by any segment, or to make judgements on anything read or viewed in the media without ample time to digest and allow other evidence to be brought forth. But my experience is that some amount of thought and a wide enough availability of sources generally provides as accurate a picture as one could expect. It would be nice if our system of learning was designed to train minds for the sort of critical thought needed. The best we can do is train ourselves.
11/30/16, 9:53 PM
Clay Dennis said...
11/30/16, 9:57 PM
Vedant said...
11/30/16, 9:58 PM
HalFiore said...
11/30/16, 10:01 PM
Warren said...
"A lot of Americans still embrace the last scraps of the old messianic fantasy about the US as the world's savior; many can't imagine a world in which the US isn't the most powerful nation on Earth" ... I have a Witness friend who believes that America and England are the pairing from Revelation after the Romans (I always thought the split Roman sides fit the model fine) and cannot conceive of or discuss the possibility a world where either those two are not in charge or the world is over and the Millennium is on. *sigh*
"Overt glorying in America's imperial conquests is rare in public."
Which is unfortunate in a way ... Up front aristocraticies (of whatever title) have expectations from the people on them and codes of behaviour and often responsibilities to those 'below' then. We 'just plain folks' type rulers seem to have all the benefits and few of the responsibilities. Even a common Brit away from home knew he, in a small way, represented the Empire (like his forebears in Roma) but Americans seem to have no idea why anyone could, would, and especially should hate them ...
11/30/16, 10:04 PM
HalFiore said...
Saw this when my screen refreshed after I posted my comment, and I apologize if I'm taking more than my share of comments, but I almost burst out laughing.
So who's picking up the talking points from the media now? That narrative has been run to death by the Associated Press, but when you dig into the story, it's not so clear. It appears one company agreed to, at least for the time being, eliminate only half of the jobs it was planning on cutting, in exchange for which Trump agreed to not push for a tariff on imports. You know, the one thing he proposed that could actually have an effect on the job losses from foreign competition. The thing you were talking about last week being a good idea.
Yes, policy means something, but only if you can believe a word someone says. And that comes down to that other thing, character. You know.
11/30/16, 10:28 PM
look sie said...
11/30/16, 10:35 PM
Mark Luterra said...
Thank you once again; though I much enjoyed the Retrotopia series I have to say that I am reading more aptly now that you are commenting on current events and - as you say - things are moving very quickly.
My thoughts this week gravitate to two factors that are "different this time" - namely nuclear weapons and multinational corporations. I would like to read your ideas of how they will come into play in the context of the impending collapse of US global hegemony.
Nukes:
I suspect that nuclear weapons make a total empire collapse (i.e. defeat on US soil) unlikely. The US may engage in some brinkmanship but will not actually fire any ICBMs in support of any proxy war. However, in the event of a Pearl Harbor-style invasion, all bets are off, and I'm sure Putin and Xi know this very well.
Corporations:
The effect is more difficult to predict, but I suspect that global corporate structure may allow the US to be economically subjugated while maintaining a political ruse of sovereignty. There is surprisingly little outrage (both in the status quo left and right, and among Trump supporters) against the ongoing cozy relationship between big business and government. With his appointment of Goldman Sachs' Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, Trump is following directly in the footsteps of Clinton, Bush, and Obama with nary a finger pointed. When you couple this with the exponential trend of Chinese buyouts of US corporations, it is not difficult to foresee a future where Chinese-Russian interests guide Washington decisionmaking, with no military defeat or direct government meddling. I also see it as likely that any prolonged economic depression in the US will be ended not by a make-work program from the bankrupt US government, but rather by the employment of underutilized, cheap US labor by foreign-based multinational corporations with more or less the same effect.
11/30/16, 10:38 PM
kristofv said...
The European leaders talk very big and arrogant towards Russia feeling safe under the American protection-umbrella, without the political unity and military power to back this up. Putin clearly thinks the Europeans have double standards (obviously they do) and I hope Russia won't be provoked enough to see for themselves if it is all bluff or not.
Some see the Ukraine crisis and the Brexit as deliberate USA policy preventing a strong EU-Russia axis emerging. As often stated on this blog, you don't need a conspiracy as an explanation when incompetence suffices. The EU has done a remarkable job of destabilizing itself through their handling of the Euro-crises. I wonder what will remain of our self-image and status of being the moral soft power in the world and the greatest peace project in world history, when the global power centra continue their eastward shift and the umbrella goes away.
Who is more in denial? The imperial heartland that doesn't want to admit its empire is going away or the vassal states not wanting to admit their guaranteed overlord protection is no longer so.
11/30/16, 10:49 PM
Chevaliermalfait said...
12/1/16, 12:23 AM
Ramaraj said...
Note: Do not put the comment through if you don't like the idea.
Thanks for the great post. If you feel you are missing the free publicity offered by the Great Russian Propaganda List, we can help.
The site has a page listing how to volunteer info on "Propaganda Sites".
"2) Volunteer to help hunt down other Russian propaganda outlets by sending an email to (our domain)@gmail.com"
If you say yes, each of us readers of The Archdruid Report can send an email 'reporting' this blog, and put you in the list in no time.
What do you say? ;)
Ramaraj
12/1/16, 12:46 AM
grisom said...
12/1/16, 12:49 AM
Phil Knight said...
I'd also look for a treaty or two with a nation or two in West Africa, and perhaps one of the smaller South American countries with an Atlantic coast.
Well, one of my idle musings has long been that the Argentinians will be very disappointed to witness the Falklands passing into Chinese hands.
12/1/16, 1:54 AM
David from Normandy said...
Thank you as usual, but something you wrote disturbed me:
"That’s why so many of them have turned to blogs for the services that newspapers and broadcast media used to provide: accurate reporting and thoughtful analysis of the events that affect their lives."
I'd like to point that some blogs are, in their own fashion, as unaccurate and unthougtful and insincere as the worst narrative-oriented mainstream medias.
I don't think you personally fall for the binary thinking "official=evil independant=good", but some people do, sincerely thinking they enlighten themselves, while all they do is choosing a different dogma.
2 times, in the past year, I ran into informations (military ones, which I happen to follow a little bit) on alternative information sites, that were so grossly and embarrassingly false that it kind of discretided the rest of the blog.
When you realize that a blog contains information that false about a subject you know enough of, you begin to question informations you don't know that well: "if they can be mistaken so much about a subject I know, how can I trust them about subjects I do not know? Worse, what if they are not mistaken but downright liars?"
I don't cite these internet sites on purpose, I'm not here to bash, but I can look for the links if you want.
And there is what I call the "guru problem": when you try to point to people that they should apply the same healthy caution about their favorite information site, that they do apply to mainstream medias, I've been confronted by reactions you're very familiar with: indifference, despise, denial, bad faith... the anger of the outraged faithful.
If it's not clear, I want to say that I don't think at all that you fall in the dishonest category. If I was, I wouldn't read you, even less comment.
But, as any blogger, you are exposed to the, ahum, adulation of your followers, and that can distort one's perception.
12/1/16, 2:41 AM
Sylvia Rissell said...
So, I'm ignoring this week's topic. Here is my essay.
In the observation of bluegrass music played on Sirius XM's "Bluegrass" channel, I have made the following observations:
1) Covers of traditional tunes by modern musicians.
2) traditional tunes played and recorded in the '30s, '40s, and '50s.
3) Modern compositions played by modern musicians.
My categories of the modern compositions are as follows:
A) 'Highbrow trash' mentions either songs or artists listed in category 2, above. Sometimes many of them in one song! So "Bill Monroe for Breakfast", which describes a happy rural family listening to the radio, is in this category. This allows the 'higbrow' listener to show off his/her knowlege of the traditions.
B) 'Lowbrow trash' describes depression era rural life (trains, moonshine, fiddle music, Mom's cooking, willing country lasses) as completely positive. The 'lowbrow' listener enjoys happy distraction from the reality of current rural living.
C) 'Middlebrow' describes the same as above, but with a mix of tragedy, or going home to find the old home empty. The 'Middlebrow' listener gets the full nostalgia package, and a distraction from the reality of current city living.
D) Murder fantasy, fictional descriptions of killing a spouse/lover and burrying him/her somewhere. (Traditional tunes include songs based on ACTUAL murders, but that does not seem to be the case for modern lyrics)
tldr; I expect Shane W to school me shortly. :)
12/1/16, 2:48 AM
Fred the First said...
This twisting of reality even happens at our local council meetings when the local newspaper reporter comes. I sit through the whole meeting, jot notes. Read the story in the paper, and out of let's say seven issues discussed and voted on, one issue is featured and the background and context are flat out wrong, quotes by people are the gist of what they said but certainly not the exact words used, and the whole article is written with this angle to get residents angry.
The reporter claims he is doing his best, and there is no accountability. The reporter is being paid $25 a story as a contract position, not a full-time salary job and what does he care what he does to the community?
And now I'm realizing in writing all this that a resident writing up what happens at council meetings and publishing it on a blog would actually do something for the community. Mmmmm......new goal for 2017.
12/1/16, 3:54 AM
Jerry Silberman said...
This column makes sense, as always, but even if it could happen, I am far less sanguine about the implications of staged withdrawal..The commodities on which US consumption depends, and with regard to which our economic power has imposed extremely advantageous terms of trade, all become very different items if we relinquish that power, resulting in a dramatic decline in available consumer goods, rising prices, etc. much faster than is happening now. Freeing up the resources invested in the military it seems to me would not compensate.
China, in particular, faces the problem of maintaining the US as a massive market for its production from a none too stable economy, while contesting for political power. Given the limits of resources and the capricious but increasingly expensive impact of climate change, doesn't catabolic collapse impact the entire global economy, albeit unevenly?
12/1/16, 4:19 AM
Mary said...
Iow, the 2000 or so Bernie supporters I personally know of are in disarray and there appears to only be a small core (~50 that I know of so far, although I suspect more within the overall group) who have re-grouped elsewhere to push working with Trump and staying focused on issues rather than personalities.
12/1/16, 4:44 AM
Kevin Warner said...
I was wondering if down the track you could post an essay listing several such little-known but vital factors that will shape our post heavy-industrial future such as that one on our planet's carrying capacity. I do not mean by the way, the obvious ones as such as lack of economically retrievable oil but less obvious factors that will determine our descendants lives. For those of us interested in future Space Bat competitions, it may also provide some sorely needed ideas about what facts to shape our stories around.
12/1/16, 5:52 AM
Paulo said...
I wanted to reply to two posters, Pygmycory and Ghung. Cory....I live on the BC Coast (Sayward). I have made two predictions over the years...one, that Northern Gateway would not be approved, mostly because of the Haida and their resolve. Two, that Trudeau would do as he was told and squeeze in the Kindedr Morgan twinning to Burnaby. I now will risk another prediction. I believe that the only pipelines that will be built will be the enlarged/revamped to Wisconsin, and a new version of Keystone XL. Trump/Pence will push the Keystone through. I believe that Vancouver area protestors and local Natives will stop the Kinder Morgan push west. Oh, it might be started in Alberta, but it will never be finished. It will make the Clayquot logging shutdown of the '90s look like childs play. When Burnaby's mayor talks of laying down in front of dozers.... And don't forget the Ernie Creys of the world. First Nations (Coast Bands) will go nuts about this. Plus, there are so many folks these days not working, manning the blockades 24/7 is not an issue. Hell, I may even take my old retired bones across the pond and carry a sign or two.
Ghung, this under-the-radar flight of ours has been a very very satisfying way of life, hasn't it? On Monday we are expecting a rapid arctic outflow. The worst I have been through saw 100kt winds out of the inlets, ('89?). I remember watching the temps drop 15C in just a few hours. You could see the ground freeze. We kept our aircraft fleet operating by coating all cables and bearings with a coating of grease mixed with salt. We had over 20 logging camps to evacuate. (God forbid...what a mess to cleanup when the thaw finally arrived!!). Anyway, this monday we are supposed to drop from 5C to -10C. The wood-fired sauna is nearing completion. Today, I am installing the chimney and flashing. My wife and I will be sipping some homemade plum wine in the sauna Monday evening. A toast for you all:-)
12/1/16, 6:18 AM
Christopher Henningsen said...
Apparently Varoufakis believed that Europe would have been better off recycling its own surpluses in house rather than sending them to Wall street, and was soundly rebuffed. But I wonder whether the Chines communist party took note...
12/1/16, 6:23 AM
Mister Roboto said...
12/1/16, 6:38 AM
Greg Belvedere said...
The Washington Post article came to my attention when I read Glenn Greenwald's piece on The Intercept about it. He pointed out how a piece that warned about fake news came from a group that seems to have popped up over night and provides no information about its members or their credentials. Greenwald has had some good work about the red-baiting going on during this election cycle.
https://theintercept.com/2016/11/26/washington-post-disgracefully-promotes-a-mccarthyite-blacklist-from-a-new-hidden-and-very-shady-group/
12/1/16, 6:44 AM
Sleisz Ádám said...
An organized retreat from the global hegemony seems to be a very challenging task for the US. I think it is worth doing but still... It might be late to avoid serious crises. The alliance in the Middle East is already in disarray while Europe and even Japan would probably implode on their own. The withdrawal needs the support of the stronger side in some of the regional conflicts but the US mostly promoted the weaker actors for decades.
If Trump decides to alleviate the pressure by the way of a Russian rapprochement, then Western Europe can find itself in the unfamiliar role of irrelevancy quite quickly. Eastern Europe, on the other hand... Interesting possibilities.
12/1/16, 6:48 AM
averagejoe said...
As usual a great article of what’s going on. I don’t know if you read the Guardian and one of its few decent writers George Monbiot, but he has just written a brilliant article about Trump’s hand picked ‘pro’ climate change advisors/staff. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/30/donald-trump-george-monbiot-misinformation?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=202244&subid=14789895&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
If Trump’s intension is to aggressively bolster climate change, he is going about it the right way. So regardless of whether he scales down the empire, it’s going to be pretty irrelevant to the challenges faced. You will be aware of the crazy temperatures that have been observed in the Arctic this winter so far. Things are developing fast.
12/1/16, 6:58 AM
SCA Heretic said...
12/1/16, 7:04 AM
Elros said...
However, for the timespan the US need to recover is unlikely that Russia and China will fight each other.
12/1/16, 7:07 AM
Jack Boot said...
Nietzsche put it best:
"Counsel as conundrum: If the bonds are not to burst, we must try to cut them first."
12/1/16, 7:35 AM
Nastarana said...
Review of The End of History and the Last Man, by Francis Fukuyama and The Democracy Trap: Pitfalls of the Post-Cold War World, by Graham E. Fuller. Chronicles, December. 39-40. 1992.
I doubt this could be found online. I could loan you the hefty book via snail mail if you like.
I don't always agree with Lukacs either. He is a conservative Catholic, an unrepentant imperialist who harbors a nostalgia for Austria Hungary and the vanished world of the European haute bourgeoisie. What is it about conservative Catholic intellectuals and Austria-Hungary? As far as I am aware, the best that can be said of the later Hapsburgs is that they seem to have meant well.
"28 million Saudis in a country that imports 100% of its food" That, of course, is why they were financing the Clinton campaign. We get to be their bolt hole. Watch for a bidding war between wealthy Chinese and wealthy Saudis for American farmland.
Dear Elro, about China and Russia not going for the jugular of the US. No, not for a while, they still have too much to lose. Neither nation wants to see its citizens who live here illegally expelled and China wants to stave off tariffs as long as it can.
12/1/16, 7:47 AM
Renaissance Man said...
The same problem has been occurring in Canada, and, indeed globally and the Murdoch news empire, for example, now encompasses the globe, leaving only a few sources of news to illuminate inconvenient facts. Sadly, those sources are themselves so partisan as to define untrustworthy. There used to be foreign correspondents all over the place, now fewer and fewer.
Having looked at the end of empires, I am not sanguine about the U.S. choosing the gentler withdrawal policy, even if Mr. Trump's election survives the possible vote audit.
12/1/16, 7:59 AM
Eric S. said...
The other thing that’ll be curious is the role that an ascendant Russia and a declining US would have in shaping the future of the United Nations. I recall during the election campaign, leaders in the UN being concerned about the possibility of a Trump presidency bringing the US closer to Russia and thereby deflating the major backing to a lot of their posturing towards Russia in recent years. I know they’ve been a big supporter of some of America’s more aggressive policies towards Russia, such as the no fly zone over Syria, sanctions regarding Russian control of Crimea, etcetera and has been a vocal critic of Russian foreign policy, while being fairly supportive of whatever the US does, so which is the more likely outcome there? Will it push Russia to the center of UN international policy, or will the balance of power remain more or less the same with the US pushed to the same fringe Russia currently occupies in the UN, being subject to international sanctions and having peacekeeping forces sent to settle internal disputes (I’ve already heard talk about the possibility of UN peacekeeping forces being sent to Standing Rock if that situation isn’t resolved peacefully).
And then, of course, there’s the fate of the United States’ own internal empire: both the economic power exerted by the coasts on the south and Midwest, and the overt colonization that continues to be exerted on the First Nations peoples. How long can that continue? There are definitely some precariously stacked cards ready to fall in the Post-American Century.
Re: The Washington Post article: One of the things I found most interesting about that was the way it targeted not only right wing news sites, and crazy conspiracy theory sites, but also websites devoted to various new-age and earth-centered alternative spiritualities.
Re: News: Which international news sites would you say are the most reliable? (Russian propaganda or not, I wouldn’t exactly consider anything from that list a reliable news source… at best they’re useful for tasting the winds of popular opinion.) But a lot of international news sites I’ve looked at just copy and paste from CNN and translate it, are so focused on local news that I can’t glean much that’s directly useful to me all the way over here, or is every bit as or even more hot-headed opinion laden than what I find over here. I’ve found an Egyptian news site that has lengthy, thorough stories with lots of background that I glean for a lot of my international news, but that’s not much diversity. What are the top sources you get your own news from?
12/1/16, 8:01 AM
Karim said...
Always a pleasure to read your geopolitical essays John!
Thinking of the US empire, it seems to me that Trump, being President Elect, is now in a privileged position, for what ever he does will determine the fate of the US over the long term. Either a planned withdrawal, minimising damage for many or clinging to Empire and triggering a cascade of catastrophic events for the US and the rest of the world.
It might be an exaggeration but Trump appears to be president at a pivotal moment in a pivotal nation, the US. A man of destiny is he?
Should we telegraph that to him?
12/1/16, 8:03 AM
Jay Dee said...
Seeing the recent rumblings regarding the appointment of secretaries of state and defence, I don't hold out much hope for a managed withdrawal. Query: if the trade agreements are a good part of the 'imperial wealth pump', is their dissolution possible without crashing the imperial tribute economy? Also, I recall you saying that US national debt should be regarded as tribute as well, as its repayment is only lip service. Trump certainly has talked about 'renegotiating' the debt (to his credit, he knows a thing or two about bankruptcy). Wouldn't doing that also end the tribute economy?
12/1/16, 8:15 AM
Dammerung said...
Maybe it's my confirmation bias speaking, but the way we see it, we knock out propaganda on 8/pol/, it filters down to 4/pol/, then down to reddit, and from reddit into the normiesphere. It's pretty crazy to see something you had a hand in making echo back to you by some Joe Sixpack on Faceberg. This is the new reality of media and it's going to be quite amusing to see how it effects the political process as these kiddos reach voting age.
Sorry if this came through multiple times, the comment form is acting weird.
12/1/16, 8:39 AM
DaShui said...
http://www.voanews.com/a/coast-guard-chief-seeks-expanded-asia-pacific-role/3617856.html
12/1/16, 8:49 AM
Mark Rice said...
If it is any consolation, I could not find the Vineyard of the Saker on that list. And the Saker is genuine Russian propaganda.
Here on the left coast I have a well educated friend who has not figured out how much our media is propaganda. He did not know the moderate jihadists we are supporting in Syria are Al-Nusra.
The deplorables in flyover country are further along in seeing though the domestic propaganda than the educated "elites" in urban coastal cities. My mind is boggled. Am I prejudiced against deplorables?
I find I now read the New York Times the same way I read RT news or - well - Vineyard of the Saker. OK The New York Times is not as bad as the Saker but you get the idea. My mother told stories of here childhood in WWII where they would listen to local German radio stations and listen to the BBC. They would then try to guess what was really going on given the Nazi news was saying X and the BBC was saying Y.
With the list of 200 Russian propaganda sites, the "respectable" media is trying to regain control of the narrative. I am not sure they get put the toothpaste back in the tube though.
12/1/16, 8:56 AM
NZ said...
I think you are correct that the MSM will not be the place where that dialog takes place. The first step in educating oneself is to unplug form the corporate propaganda machine, and many are discovering that pathway. The internet is currently providing an alternative outlet for information, but how long will that last? Seems like the combination of relentless neocons and the shortsightedness of multinational corporations are bent on locking down the flow of information or at the bare minimum, have the ability to shut it down at will. However disastrous and counterproductive this lockdown would be, I take some satisfaction in the though that public meetings to discuss and become more informed will return to prominence.
What will be interesting to watch is how Trump handles the public meetings he has scheduled and how those public appearances will change over time. Will they be chances to rally the strength of the population to achieve positive national goals for all, or will they be another form of social control, used by special interests to control the population and divert dissent. Corporations are not bad in themselves, it is what they are used for that is dangerous and destructive.
On a side note, I watched the explosion of Elon Musk's Space X rocket with Facebook's Satellite aboard as payload. This happened back in September, but I missed the story back then. The story tied in very nicely with your last post and commenters looking for examples of complex technology failure. Seemed like fitting end to the hubris coming form those two.
12/1/16, 9:08 AM
Christopher Edwards said...
Chris Edwards
12/1/16, 9:11 AM
BoysMom said...
Note that it's taken us since the seventies to get to where we are today. If there are shortcuts, I don't know what they are. But as an effective grassroots movement, it's a pretty well-recorded one, and I think could be copied by any one-issue group. (The idiots who want us to lobby about marriage, abortion, or whatever are trying to sow the seeds of destruction of the movement, and I don't think they even realize it.) I grew up in the middle of this, and I've watched the states all come to different ways of legalizing home school.
12/1/16, 9:41 AM
Jason B said...
12/1/16, 10:27 AM
n=ro said...
12/1/16, 10:32 AM
DE Prof said...
12/1/16, 10:42 AM
Jeannette Sage said...
I loved your word "barnstorming"!
Another window on the world that I try to follow, is the Dutch documentary series, broadcast every week on Dutch television, Backlight (Tegenlicht). One of the more remarkable episodes was one on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Have you heard of it? It is spreading its wings throughout the whole world.
Here is the link to the full, English-spoken/subtitled documentary, for those who are interested (46 rewarding minutes):
The Chinese World Order (VPRO Backlight).
The documentary dates from last March. In the meantime, many more countries have signed up to be a member, also Canada:
Canada Ignores Washington's Warnings, Joins China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
12/1/16, 10:47 AM
onething said...
You seem to find that black list funny, but maybe it is the first iteration of an intended crackdown on journalistic freedom and freedom of speech.
12/1/16, 10:49 AM
Karl Brantz said...
12/1/16, 10:59 AM
William McGillis said...
http://harpers.org/archive/2016/12/the-new-red-scare/
12/1/16, 11:08 AM
Bill Ding said...
"There are areas where people like me could work with him: rebuilding the infrastructure, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, re-establishing Glass-Steagall, raising the minimum wage. Those are ideas that we can work on. Now, was he being totally hypocritical and just saying whatever came to his mind that he thought could attract votes? Or does he believe that?"
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/bernie-sanders-where-we-go-from-here-w452786
12/1/16, 11:43 AM
pygmycory said...
12/1/16, 12:26 PM
RAnderson said...
12/1/16, 12:56 PM
[email protected] said...
You are spot on regarding the failings of the US corporate media. I followed the US elections closely and was appalled by the coverage of the mainstream media which systemically failed to report key issues which should have been discussed and was totally hostile to the Trump campaign. It was embarrassing.
Personally, i follow a broad spectrum of media sources, including foreign media like the Guardian, Spiegel, Telegraph, Spectator, New Statesman, Breibart and Politico as well as "alternative" sources like the World Socialist Web Site, zero hedge and financial sense. Interestingly, I have found the business online sources (Reuters, Bloomberg and FT) as a more reliable source of coverage of politics than the traditional legacy media like the New York Times etc.
I suspect that the slightly more balanced coverage of the business geared media is because their clients require accurate reporting of politics as it plays a key role in investment and financial decision making! For those, on this blog, who have criticized John's critical comments on legacy media, I suggest you have misunderstand his point.
The point is to take a critical but open minded viewpoint on all news media used, whether it is legacy or alternative. Blindly following a particular strand of "alternative" news reporting is just as unhealthy as religiously believing whatever corporate spin the NYT or Washington Post publishes on a daily basis.
Regarding your interesting geopolitical analysis on the state of the American empire, i fully agree. President elect Trump has a great opportunity to reshape foreign policy and make a start on a partial withdrawal of American global commitments, something I have predicted on my forecasting blog, here;
https://forecastingintelligence.org/2016/09/24/the-global-implications-of-a-trump-presidency/
Contrary to some on this forum, I am cautiously optimistic about Trump. Clearly he needs to keep his cards to his chest as he hasn't been formally inaugurated yet and he is aware that the Deep State's tentacles roam deep. However, the early signs are positive, with the scrapping of the trans-pacific trade deal a strong sign that Trump means what he says and is prepared to take on the vested Washington interests.
I also see that Trump is starting to deliver on his commitment to help the Rust Belt. Those who sneer at his attempts to save jobs should re reminded that President Obama during 8 years in office made little to no attempt to protect jobs for American workers. It looks like Trump will try and help the Rust Belt communities who got him elected.
So, its early days but so far it appears promising.
12/1/16, 12:59 PM
John Michael Greer said...
HalFiore, if you read my post as an attack on the existence of a free press, you misread it. My point is precisely that the US mainstream media has fallen down on the job and is no longer fulfilling its traditional role; that's why people are paying less and less attention to it. I'd honestly prefer to see the media doing its job -- that is to say, reporting and analysis, rather than cheerleading for whoever pays the most.
Clay, Krugman is amazing, and I don't mean that in a good way. I read him when I'm not sure how far elite cluelessness can go.
Vedant, true enough.
HalFiore, I agree -- some standards must be maintained. It's because the mainstream US media has failed to maintain even the most basic standards that people are turning to other sources to get the information and analysis they need. That's all I'm saying.
Warren, exactly. It's precisely because Americans have convinced themselves that they don't have an empire that they manage their empire so badly.
HalFiore, if the AP has been saying that, it's news to me -- I don't read US media unless I can help it. I simply added together the death of the TPP and the two big corporations that have cancelled their offshoring projects, compared it to the big fat nothing the working class has gotten from Obama, and drew the logical conclusion. If that offends you, sorry, but there it is.
Look sie, oh, granted, there's a lot to worry about in the bizarreries Armata quoted. Still, it's also remarkably silly, you must admit.
12/1/16, 1:03 PM
Ursachi Alexandru said...
Over the longer term, a revived rivalry with China and Iran over influence in the Far East, Central Asia and the Caucasus could also leave Russia with less resources for its expansionist ambitions in Central and Eastern Europe. They would have to stretch themselves just to hold on to what they've got. If the US is to gradually retreat from this region, I can see some potential benefits to Russia-weary countries like Romania, Poland and the Baltics, at least in theory, if that leads to a revival of Russia's traditional rivalries.
12/1/16, 1:14 PM
RAnderson said...
12/1/16, 1:14 PM
Adrian Ayres Fisher said...
Still, I'm waiting for (perhaps I missed it) one of your cogent analyses about how Trump, Putin, Xi and all their pals are part of a trans-national global elite. I believe that a different wealth-pump will occur in which the basically stateless global elites maintain their cushy lifestyles against all others, similar to what the elite Mayans did in a time of great drought.
The web of billionaire funding --including the astroturf tea party supported by the Kochs, and media outlets such as Breitbart funded in large part by the Mercer family,among other things--that got Trump elected, and the fact that now they and other fossil fuel/wall street interests have got people being assigned to significant government positions is telling.
The idea seems to be that they can "adapt" to and possibly "exploit" climate change, and thus can continue enriching themselves by working really hard to exacerbate it--and who cares about all the regular folks deeply affected by it. I do not excuse global elite Democrats here, either. As all the rest of us keep arguing about identity politics, those folks continue to win.
I just think there's more going on here than meets the eye regardless of what our preferred media outlets might be, or what our preferred flavor of politics is. On a personal note, I find that reading a variety of on- and- off line media sources augmented by serious books and not watching TV (as someone else mentioned) helps develop independence of thought.
12/1/16, 1:20 PM
Thomas Prentice said...
Craig Timberg
WaPo Pravda-on-the-Potomac
1301 K Street NW,
Washington DC 20071
Dear Herr Heil Goebbels:
My friend John Michael Greer who writes the commiepinko Archdruid Report on Wednesdays is quite annoyed that you have not included him on your list of commiepinko subversive publications. Please correct this infraction immediately, if not sooner. His url is http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
Moreover, since I was too young to make the Nixon enemies list, which disappointed me greatly, I am tremendously irritated beyond words issuing in a frothing spew from my mouth that WaPo left my commiepinko Facebook page off that same list. Please correct this unconscionable infraction at your earliest convenience. My Facebook url is https://www.facebook.com/ThomasArcherPrentice
Meanwhile, I hear the Walmart is having a sale on both consciences and empathy. You might want to snag ‘em before they sell out.
You know, sell out, you know. I am sure you are familiar with the term.
Warmest Personal Regards,
thom prentice phd
cc: Martin Baron, Editor, WaPo, Pravda-on-the-Potomac Marty: This? After Spotlight? Really? Really!
12/1/16, 1:36 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Kristofv, agreed -- it's a tossup between them, and I don't imagine the rude awakening is going to be welcome in either case.
Chevalier, heh indeed.
Ramaraj, why, I couldn't possibly recommend that any of my readers do that, could I? ;-)
Grisom, thank you -- I'll give it a look as time permits.
Phil, also a possibility!
David, understood. Please note that I didn't say that all blogs, or even most of them, offer accurate reporting and thoughtful analysis. I said that people were turning to blogs to get those things, because increasingly they can't be found in the mainstream US media. Of course it's buyer beware in the blogosphere, with inaccurate stories all over the place -- but the same thing's true on the mainstream news media here.
Fred, that sounds like a very good project for the new year!
Jerry, it's not a matter of withdrawing from empire or not doing so -- at this point, it's a matter of doing so voluntarily in a controlled fashion, or doing it involuntarily as a consequence of sudden crisis, very possibly with next to no warning at all. Given the choice, the controlled withdrawal is much less disruptive. One way or another, it's going to be a rough road -- the question is purely how to make it a little less rough than it will otherwise be.
Kevin, I'll consider that.
Paulo, exactly. It's a normal historical process, and can be made easier or harder, but one way or another most of us will live through it.
Christopher, that's a good point. Of course the difference between recycling surpluses in a Marshall Plan and recycling them via Wall Street is that in the former case, you actually produce something other than profits, and the result is increased economic stability; in the latter, you feed speculative bubbles and that's it, resulting in instability. I hope the Chinese are paying attention to the distinction.
12/1/16, 1:38 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Greg, yes, I noticed that. Was Castro a dictator who presided over human rights violations? Sure. Does the United States have any business pointing fingers? I recall someone saying something about a mote in your brother's eye and a beam in your own...
Sleisz Ádám, oh, granted. Again, though, it's not a matter of whether we retreat from empire, it's a matter of whether we do it via deliberate withdrawal or sudden collapse.
Averagejoe, I'm aware of that. We had a choice earlier this month between one candidate who offered lip service to climate change and another who was open about ignoring it. Since nobody in American public life is willing to talk about what's going to have to happen to stop dumping CO2 into the atmosphere, we're going to face the kind of mess I've discussed repeatedly in this blog -- and neither party's candidate in the election would have done a thing about it.
SCA Heretic, I spend time with a lot of working class guys these days, and all of them are Trump supporters; I've also met a lot of Clinton supporters who not only have never had a conversation with someone in the working class, but talk about the American working class in terms I can only describe as hate speech. Your mileage may vary, but that's been my experience, and that's what was behind my comment.
Elros, they don't need to fight. They just need to start competing with one another for allies and spheres of influence.
Jack, true enough.
Nastarana, thank you! No need to lend; I can get it via interlibrary loan, and will do so promptly.
Renaissance, and of course that's a huge issue.
12/1/16, 1:49 PM
James M. Jensen II said...
One thing I think that's needed right now is the sophistication to understand the difference between a megalomaniac and an ordinary warlord. Stalin, Mao, and N. Korea's Kims provide examples of the former, while Putin and Castro strike me as more the latter; perhaps Castro is a borderline case.
The sophistication is needed to understand why many people can praise them highly while many others hate them so fiercely. Where a megalomaniac thinks of their people as little more than tools to advance their own power and agenda, a warlord's results are more genuinely mixed: they can be genuinely beneficial for a substantial portion of their people, while also being brutally evil to those who oppose them.
The ability to both respect a leader for the benefits they bring to their people without ignoring the atrocities they commit against their enemies strikes me as a useful one just now. Demanding purity is a fool's game in politics.
12/1/16, 2:22 PM
inohuri said...
It may be that the Green Party is in revolt about Jill Stein vote recounts.
<<>>
http://www.flowersforsenate.org/greens_speak_out_recount
George Soros behind the Hillary Clinton lawyer working with Jill Stein on voter recount
http://theduran.com/exposed-george-soros-behind-the-hillary-clinton-lawyer-working-with-jill-stein-on-voter-recount/
12/1/16, 2:29 PM
Raymond Duckling said...
"But, as harmful as these phenomena[1] might be, the prospect of legitimate dissenting voices being labelled fake news or Russian propaganda by mysterious groups of ex-government employees, with the help of a national newspaper, is even scarier."
[1] The spread of misinformation amongst American people by Russian intelligence services.
12/1/16, 2:40 PM
inohuri said...
<<>>
Mexico's exports to China amount to $5 billion USD each year while Mexico's imports from China amount to $66 billion USD with a difference of $61 billion USD in China's favor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Mexico_relations#Trade
12/1/16, 2:58 PM
Clay Dennis said...
My response is perhaps the younger generation would not be so negative if they had not been saddled with massive student debt, a disfunctional health care system, poor job prospects and paying ss and medicare taxes that only go to feather the ngests of the boomers. No wonder they did not get on board with the status quo. I tell the folks I know in this group that what they better worry about is when the millenials figure out how badly they have really been chumped they will come for them with torches and pitchforks.
12/1/16, 3:34 PM
gwizard43 said...
It seems to me that it would be a real service to the world, at this present moment, for an individual steeped in historical analysis to identify those dynamics that led to Britain and China (and perhaps other cases) relinquishing empire voluntarily - what separated them from the cling-by-the-fingernails cases?
For example, were there political factions in each, or other institutional agents, that pushed for such a response? Perhaps a sizable segment of the elite that had not gone senile and saw what was coming? Or was it more of a bottom up model, or a mix?
I'm thinking of a Tainter-like analysis, applied to those rare cases where empires chose to go gently into that good night. I'm not well equipped for such an endeavor, but I can think of at least one who is. ;-)
12/1/16, 3:35 PM
David, by the lake said...
I forget which comment you replied to above, but you said something along the lines of "that is why I'm working to get this idea out there" and I suddenly realized that this is how one changes policy. Winning control (or supposed control) of positions of power is secondary. One can influence policy indirectly and over the longer term by injecting ideas into the public space and repeatedly having those necessary conversations. Not unlike magic (and perhaps this is where your training has aided you), it requires patience, will, and persistence.
Suddenly, my possible roles in this process take on a whole new light.
As a side note, today is Dec 1st and I took out nomination papers at city hall today for another run at city council. I have until Jan 3rd to collected the needed signatures to qualify for the ballot in April. As with each year in our city, three seats are up, all at-large. Last year was a good learning experience and I will be applying some of the lessons this time around.
12/1/16, 3:48 PM
tolkienguy said...
I still think you are being a little too sanguine about Trump though. Overturning the entrenched status quo in favor of some other ideal requires one to have, well, ideals in the first place, and Trump has shown no sign of that. Furthermore, if you look at his prior business career, he actually doesn't show many signs of being a good businessman-he started off with a fair bit of property from his Dad and managed to go bankrupt three times. Indeed, the only thing he's shown above average-and indeed, I would say genius-level-skills at is generating good publicity for himself. This article actually gives a pretty good look into his personality:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all
Quite frankly, the man shows no sign of being committed to any ideals, much less the decidedly counter-mainstream ones presented here (not using this term as an insult-I consider myself very counter-mainstream). On the other hand, he shows a great ability to figure out what people want to hear, say it, and thus get them to go along with him. Even on foreign policy he's been rather inconsistent-he's espoused isolationism at times, but at other times talks about "bombing ISIS into the stone age". Quite frankly, I don't think he has any real idea of what he's going to do after he takes the oath, and (much like Bush), is going run a rather confused, directionless foreign policy until some clique of advisors gains his confidence, and thus control over his actions. With Bush, it happened due to 9/11. Don't know when it will happen with Trump, but I'm sure it will happen, and I think there's a better than even chance the winning clique will be very neoconservative in flavor. As to why I think this, here's another good article, this one from the (Hehe) Badenovsphere.
http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/iranophobes-on-parade/
Basically, that article is about how a lot of Trump's "Pro-Russian" advisors are also really, really anti-Iranian-and thing is, Iran has become about as important to Russia over the last few years as Saudi Arabia is to the US. Cutting Iran loose would cost Russia a lot of influence in the Middle East, without any immediate way to gain it back. What happens when Trump gets into office, cancels the Iran nuclear deal, and draws us into an escalating game of brinkmanship with Iran, with Russia siding with the Ayatollahs? To refer to Twilight's Last Gleaming, Trump looks like a very good candidate for Jamison Weed.
And also, his treasury secretary is a Goldman Sachs alum. Do you really think a Goldman Sachs alum is going to reinstate Glass-Steagal? This is starting to look like a re-run of a story we've seen very recently, which started when a legion of puppy-eyed young idealists, including myself, marched into voting booths across the country to propel Mr. Hopenchange to the Oval Office. I think its going to end the same way too.
One last thing-please do that climate change blog post. Surely you've heard what almost happened to Gatlinburg a couple days ago? Having been there, I wouldn't have mourned its destruction too much-it's a tourist trap of the worst kind-but it was still quite shocking, and the drought the South has been having contributed to it. Not to mention the "thousand year flood" that befell my birth city of Columbia last year-all of these things may have a natural cause, but we're seeing way to many of them for my taste.
12/1/16, 4:08 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Karim, his chief of staff apparently already holds that opinion, so a telegraph may not be necessary.
Jay Dee, the tribute economy is going away one way or another. It can be closed off in a deliberate fashion, giving the US economy some time to adjust, or it can be cut off by sudden crisis, but one way or another it's ending -- the abandonment of the dollar as the medium for international exchange, and its replacement by bilateral currency deals, has been signalling that one for years now. Thus you're quite correct; the tribute economy is ending, and the coastal cities of the US that have thrived on it are going to be in a world of hurt in the decades ahead.
Dammerung, maybe the frog god did it. Have you considered the possibility that the deity in question might actually be the Great Old One Tsathoggua? ;-)
DaShui, fascinating. If they go ahead with that, it might actually help, too!
Mark, the reason Les Deplorables get it is simply that the contrast between what the media says and what they see around themselves in flyover country is too vast to be ignored. In the bicoastal bubble, it's still possible to mistake the media's story for a vague reflection of fact.
NZ, exactly. It really is anyone's guess how this is going to play out, but at least the bipartisan neoconservative consensus seems to be cracking at last.
Christopher, square on target. Yes, exactly.
BoysMom, that's an excellent point, and thank you for bringing it up. Anyone else interested in learning how to organize to make change happen, instead of simply waving signs and being ignored? Here's your example.
Jason, well, we'll see, won't we?
N=ro, no doubt!
DE Prof, oh, granted. Listening to people rabbit on about this or that candidate's personality makes me roll my eyes. As I noted earlier, I couldn't care less about what kind of person a candidate is; I want to know how he or she will vote on the issues that matter to me.
12/1/16, 4:10 PM
Ethan La Coursiere said...
12/1/16, 4:24 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Onething, of course it is. That's why satire is an appropriate first counterstrike -- the one thing I can do at this stage of the game is to assist Pravda on the Potomac to make a fool of itself publicly. (Not that this is hard, mind you.) If it accelerates, I (along with other bloggers who are or might be targeted) can move to other tactics.
Karl, a nice colorful bit of rhetoric. Thank you.
William, thanks for this! Glad to see the magazines starting to return fire.
Bill, and if Sanders and other Democrats who are opposed to militarism, destructive trade agreements, and some of the other issues involved work with the incoming administration, they may well be able to get some quid pro quo on other issues important to them. That's how politics used to be done, before it froze up into gridlock.
Pygmycory, well, there you are.
RAnderson, er, you forgot to mention the death of TPP, which would have accelerated offshoring, and Ford's decision not to offshore one of its production lines to Mexico.
Lordberia, I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic about Trump. I think it's reasonable to wait and see what he actually does in office before passing judgment. Some of the actions he's already taken seem very promising to me, others are disappointing -- but that's par for the course. As quite a number of others have commented, at least we seem to have dodged a shooting war in Syria...
Ursachi, that's a very good point. Western Europe may suffer as a result of a US pullout, but eastern Europe might benefit quite a bit.
RAnderson, I never said he was a friend of unions. I said that he was going to benefit the working class. Cynical or not, he's not stupid; if he wants to be reelected in 2010, and all the evidence suggests he does, benefiting the working class is his ticket to a landslide.
Adrian, I'm far from sure I agree with that analysis. While there's a class of rich people who think of themselves as a transnational global elite, I've come to think that they have much less power than you or they believe, and they -- like pampered aristocracies more than once in the past -- may find that a new and more muscular ruling class has shouldered them aside. More on this in a future post.
12/1/16, 4:25 PM
John Michael Greer said...
James, that's a valid point, of course. A lot of people these days have a one-dimensional notion of dictatorship, and equate all dictators with one another; you're right that there's a lot of variation.
Inohuri, interesting. We'll see how that plays out.
Raymond, and now a second magazine returning fire! Interesting.
Inohuri, yes, but the geopolitics works either way.
Clay, oh bright gods. So the Democrats, who just lost one election by spending all year screaming insults at people who voted for their guy in 2008, are now going to double down by screaming insults at a generational demographic they've got to win over to their side if they're ever going to win again? I'm beginning to wonder if the Democratic Party has a death wish...
Gwizard43, in Britain's case they were pressured into it by the US. China's another matter -- I don't know the literature well enough to be able to say what drove it. Hmm -- I foresee a lot of reading ahead.
David, exactly! Congratulations; you win tonight's gold star for getting it. Good luck with the upcoming campaign.
Tolkienguy, as I noted in response to an earlier comment on this post, I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic about Trump; I'm willing to see what he does once he actually gets into the White House. Given the ratio of heat to light in the media about him right now, I know that's rare. As for climate change, it's in process; the short version is that we were locked into drastic climate change by the time Obama finished his first term, and it's already happening. If you live within fifty feet or so of sea level, you should relocate to higher ground as soon as you can.
12/1/16, 4:37 PM
John Michael Greer said...
12/1/16, 4:38 PM
pygmycory said...
Apart from that, I'm not sure.
12/1/16, 4:38 PM
Mario Incandenza said...
Alas, I have zero hope that our institutions, including the national security establishment, the press, and the many powerful tentacles of the military-industrial complex, are remotely capable of the sort of self-awareness and long vision that would be required to transition to such a state of affairs. Pretty sure we're destined to go down in history with the kickers-and-screamers...
12/1/16, 5:39 PM
Shane W said...
Regarding Mexico, is it really that bad? I thought they were doing better than us, economically. I thought that, plus a lot of intangibles, was what was driving the reverse migration of so many Mexicans back to Mexico. Is that not accurate? Are they going back in spite of even worse economic conditions at home?
I'm not sure what's going on w/India, but how come no one seems to want to use India as a wedge against China? I'm particularly disappointed in their Commonwealth partners (Canada, Australia) cozying up to China. Particularly Australia--I mean, they're right across the Indian Ocean from India.
I appreciate the post about the Greens, I certainly smelled a rat there last week when it was posted, and I'm gratified that not all Greens are on board with it. I knew it was Stein pimping for Hillary and doing her dirty work.
@Sylvia,
I don't know that much about bluegrass music. I actually wish I knew more!
12/1/16, 6:19 PM
Dammerung said...
12/1/16, 6:19 PM
Shane W said...
12/1/16, 6:25 PM
David, by the lake said...
https://politicalwire.com/2016/12/01/exchange-of-the-day-37/
12/1/16, 6:54 PM
latheChuck said...
When our host mentioned (last week?) that a period of free trade (facilitated by the British Empire) concluded with the Great Depression, and that a new era of free trade began a few decades ago (trade opening with China, NAFTA, etc.), I started pondering the personalities involved. I started reading the biography of President Herbert Hoover.
Hoover was a Republican, but was not liked by his 1-term predecessor, Coolidge.
Trump is a Republican, but was not promoted by the Republican elites.
Hoover was wealthy, with mining interests around the world.
Trump is wealthy, with real-estate interests around the world.
Hoover, like Trump, had never been elected to any office before the Presidency.
Hoover donated his presidential salary to charity.
Trump has said that he'll take just $1 in salary.
Immigration was a contentious issue in the years just before Hoover was elected (1924 McCarran Act limited immigration from "undesirable" regions).
Racial issues were tense in the 1920s, with a resurgent Ku Klux Klan claiming 9 million members.
Income inequality reached a peak during the 1920s, approximately the current level.
The stock market boomed for several months after Hoover was elected.
US stock indices have boomed since Trump's election.
(I think you can see where this is going...)
12/1/16, 6:57 PM
Armata said...
It would appear to me that WaPo is at least as guilty when it comes to disseminating fake news and propaganda as the people it has been loudly accusing of being Russian agents and stooges.
12/1/16, 7:05 PM
Candace said...
Re: Funding Think Tanks
This is one perspective. I thought it was a pretty good discussion of where the libertarian groups get money
Dark Money
The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right
by Jane Mayer
12/1/16, 7:19 PM
HalFiore said...
Oh, I'm hardly offended, as I discerned no sort of attack on me or anyone I care deeply about in anything you wrote, though I would say you were a bit harsh on Cat. I think it was fair to point out that, actually I can now say all of the news items you cited have been reported extensively and not particularly critically by rock solid mainstays of the "MSM." If you did not know that because you make it a practice not to expose yourself to the media that, after all, still bring most people their news, well, all I can say is that it's hardly an excuse. Especially when you are lambasting them for the quality of the news they report, apparently sight unseen.
Here's the site I usually start with, mainly because my internet connection is data-limited and it's easy on that resource: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/fronts/HOME?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME
Nothing sexy, edgy, alterntivy, or groovy in any way. Just the boring old AP feed that supplies front pages in communities all over the country. Where the vast majority of us learned about, and were immersed in, months on end of Clinton's handling of her e-mail accounts, health speculations, allegations regarding the Clinton foundation, and all you could ever want to know about a mild, downright Victorian epithet, "deplorable."
You could look it up.
Of course, I don't stop there.
What bothers me a bit is you seem to have glossed over the main point I was trying to make in my first comment. Latching onto news and commentary from sources which have few verifiable credentials other than the ability to open a blogspot account, while willfully ignoring more traditional sources seems to me to be a recipe for a narrow type of groupthink to emerge. Add to that being cheered by near-sycophantic followers every week, and it's not hard to see how a lot of dubious answers could begin to make sense.
I did not think for a minute that your criticism was of a "free press." It's a lack of discrimination and critical questioning I'm concerned about.
I'm just reporting what I have seen in various online "communities," becoming ingrown to the point of the hall of mirrors I think I might have alluded to. I think there's a danger in that, and it looks to me like you are in the process of falling into it.
12/1/16, 8:26 PM
Donald Hargraves said...
1) As for Liberals doubling down, many of them are ready to openly give up on the Great Lake States and hunker down on the coasts (and New England). Not so much the writers (I've posted so many articles calling for the Democrats to regain its focus on Workers that I can no longer laugh) but the rank-and-file urban liberals who want the interior of the nation to die.
2) Sanders has been playing the long game for the past couple years. The Democratic Party has hopefully been infused with a pro-labor, truly leftist group of new voters and volunteers, and he's willing to deal to get some of what he wants (instead of separating for purity's sake, never mind getting nothing). Whether there's enough time … that's the Billion Dollar Question.
12/1/16, 8:38 PM
zach bender said...
12/1/16, 8:47 PM
Rita Narayanan said...
throughout history either such persons were the definitive elite or earned their spurs...yet others were crucified.
it is the hypocrisy of modern liberal humane thinking that gets to me...underneath the beauty & dance lies the ugly feet of the peacock.
Thanks for all the hard work & best wishes for 2017.
12/1/16, 9:07 PM
Arnold.Faustus said...
In your other blog you talked abount Entryism. I suggest bringing that here for discussion and fleshing out how
outside groups operate to usurp groups from their original focus
12/1/16, 9:14 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Mario, I know there's going to be a lot of resistance. Still, the common sense of today's politics was once the ravings of some eccentric out on the fringe.
Shane, you don't present it as malaise. You present it, as FDR and Churchill did, as everyone standing up and doing their part in the face of an imminent threat, and you frame it as heroism, not as cardigan-wearing dorkhood. (Not that I have anything against cardigans, mind you.) As for Mexico, well, the regular readership of this blog has fair number of citizens of Mexico, so I'll toss the question their way: are there ample jobs at decent pay available for the Mexican working class now?
Dammerung, I've been there rather more than once; I lurk on a lot of unlikely forums, all across the political, cultural, and social spectrum of the net. It's a useful way of gauging the state of collective consciousness, which is a lot of what I use for my predictions. As for an OP, hmm. No time soon -- I'm up to my eyeballs as usual, this time finishing another Latin translation -- but I may consider it at some point.
David, yep -- nailed it.
LatheChuck, good. A historical parallel is always welcome here. Now we'll see whether it continues to follow that curve.
Armata, no argument there. By the way, you might want to add this bit of bizarrerie to your collection of strange utterances by Clinton supporters. The ecstatic identification of followers with a leader they think can do no wrong, to the extent that their identities merge into that of the leader....where have we heard of that before?
HalFiore, so noted, but you've missed the point of my response. I don't get my news from blogs. I sometimes use aggregator blogs on specific themes to direct me to news stories -- the latest climate change news, for example, shows up much more regularly on certain blogs than in the mainstream media -- but most of my news comes from overseas news media that still maintain some degree of integrity. I do visit US news media from time to time, as I've pointed out here, so my criticism isn't "sight unseen," as you claim; I do it when I want to find out what the party line is this week, and then go elsewhere to find out what actually happened.
Thus I didn't happen to catch the story you mentioned; I was probably too busy watching Trump play the media like a fiddle -- this latest business about flag-burning, for example, was great political theater, not least because Clinton cosponsored a bill in the Senate calling for exactly the same thing, and Trump has therefore set his critics up for another round of charges of hypocrisy. As I noted back in January, the guy's not dumb.
12/1/16, 10:08 PM
Kfish said...
http://russia-insider.com/en/military_politics_ukraine_opinion/2014/11/10/08-50-10pm/top_spymaster_explains_how_russian
Right down the bottom, the report directly states that hydrocarbons are running out and renewables will not replace them. Very blunt talk for a news outlet.
12/1/16, 10:08 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Zach, of course I realize that. That wasn't my point. A thousand people who were going to lose their jobs still have them; the community in which most of them live will now be able to keep its stores and bars and public schools open -- and to most of the people that are affected by that, that's all that matters. If you want to get them to care about regressive tax systems, you have to meet the needs of their day to day survival first. It astonishes me that so many people on the left seem to have lost track of that. On the other hand, if you want to build a movement for social change that includes factory workers in Indiana -- and if you want change to happen, that's not something you can neglect -- you now know where to start...
Rita, thank you. You've actually clarified something for me; I've been watching the histrionics, the narcissistic insistence that every vote against Clinton was a vote personally and deliberately directed against each individual who supported her, and the rest of it, and wondering about the sources of it. Of course you're right; the culture of egolatry, the overt worship of the individual's ego as God (or Goddess) that's become pervasive in quite a few corners of US pop culture, has got to play a significant role there.
Arnold, I'll consider that.
Kfish, good heavens. That's impressively honest. Thank you.
12/1/16, 10:18 PM
Nestorian said...
That's not really true: You're forgetting about the auto-industry bailout that Obama engineered. So far, at least, that beats what Trump did with Carrier by a couple orders of magnitude.
12/1/16, 11:17 PM
Unknown said...
12/1/16, 11:46 PM
Matt Heins said...
First, congratulations to you for getting such play, as I'm sure both you and I are pleasantly astonished looking back now ten long years. Second, eternal respect to you in your sometimes heroic efforts to respond directly to the flood of replies.
So, late in the game, I would like to reinforce a point you made to Amarta in re the identification cult that has weirdly risen to support the notion that Queen Hillary, that total avatar of decaying American Empire, is somehow also the avatar of Feminist Social Revolution. In the link you recently posted, not only does the author subsume her own personality as you point out, it is also not possible to dispute her assertions without subscribing, or joining, her net grouping.
Those who do not join are un-persons.
It is true Nazi or Stalinist perfection!
To join you must be approved.
If unapproved, you do not exist, what you say is not recorded, the perfect echo chamber.
As one of those countless and nameless people who argued that this world of BS was inevitable if FreeNet principles did not win out in my youth oh so long ago, I wish to thank you, from the heart, for maintaining this tiny space that still glows with the suffused and fractured light of what so many good people once dreamed and worked to build in such hope.
It is hard to contemplate, I was once one outlier thinker and contributor of this great and auspicious new awakening of Humankind that some were beginning to call "The World Wide Web", which would enable humanity, free it from all boundaries of evil and nation-state, and now I see near-total dissolution or co-optation by those same evils that we had set out to destroy. Our Beautiful Dream was as doomed as all Utopians' are, it seems.
But, by some miracle, or rather, the resoluteness and strong faith of its minder, ADR has stayed the course. You have completely survived the horrible takedown. It has made me, a lapsed Lutheran, actually turn to your own Druidic faith. I am working through the Druidry Handbook now. Drawing much strength from it.
From reading your blogs I have come to a coinciding notion:
The conectivity that I see as so important for peace and decent society can be had without the Internet at all. I only thought the net was essential to it because I started out a net geek.
Thanks, matti.
12/2/16, 1:24 AM
latefall said...
As chance would have it, this just fluttered into my inbox with a couple of people* looking for a final partner to complete the team:
https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/c652a306-b3c7-4fe5-ae36-5b70346da5fd
Context: https://youtu.be/MvtKZBRzyJA?t=855
"The Energy Systems Catapult is procuring a package of professional services / systems engineering and consultancy work whose output will assist stakeholders within the energy community to make better informed strategic, policy, investment and operational decisions.
The supplier(s) will propose the philosophy, principles and broad methodologies by which the energy community can map out transition pathways towards key milestones in the future of the energy sector."
[...] of transition pathways to best deliver future UK energy needs in an affordable, secure and de-carbonised manner."
@Phil Harris or others in the UK based commentariat would perhaps also know people who may be interested? Deadline is Dec 19th.
*As I understand it at least one party is currently based in Cluj, Romania. Just in case you want to lay the groundwork for another move. ;)
12/2/16, 2:19 AM
NZ said...
Most people have forgotten the true power of public meetings and have allowed themselves to be misdirected into meaninglessness. What do people have now- sports and music events based on massive consumerism. Talk about a win/win for the corporate oligarchy.
Thinking back on the Obama years, he started out drawing massive crowds with soaring rhetoric of change and motivation. He really is a great orator. But then immediately upon entering office, betrayed all his words. The crowds diminished, and he was left with using his soaring rhetoric in digital form over conventional media, where the words just add to the numbing excess of passive consumption- or people rightfully tune out.
In the back of my mind, there is a hope that Trump might- just might- be a public figure that surprises everyone. A catalyst, if you will, that disrupts the boiling cauldron of American Empire in such a way that our nation's path can be changed. How Ironic, and wonderful it would be.
12/2/16, 3:33 AM
Doc Tim said...
Recognize some issues in regulation process of big Parma doesn't mean any "natural" unregulated supplement is better. Recognize that all media sources has a narrative that any reported news gets tied too and that money can influence stories in the US too doesn't mean that any story differing from MSM is truthful.
What we need more of is more critical thinking where people can recognize potentially competing narratives, evaluate news in the context of these and differentiate between narrative differences and things that are factually false.
I'd say you largely do a good job of this. On a closing note, it would be interesting to hear your take on the "post-truth" world, not some much in the dangers we ignore the our current consumption and relationship with the natural world, but in the more acute form displayed lately.
12/2/16, 4:27 AM
Lawfish1964 said...
12/2/16, 5:35 AM
Phillip Allen said...
While the data presented in this link are based on the under- and mis-reporting of military expenditures in the US budget, using official figures the US is responsible for 37% of world spending on war in 2015. Still grotesque, of course. See https://www.nationalpriorities.org/campaigns/us-military-spending-vs-world/
12/2/16, 6:08 AM
Luciddreams said...
At any rate, I know of nowhere else to come and get a dose of real news. You provide that, and that is unfortunate for our nation. By that I mean that the televised news should be providing the news. MSM is the mouthpiece of the Corporatocracy that runs this country. The only thing you can rely on with the MSM is that they are at best bending the truth with professional propaganda, and at worse lying.
So again, thank you for what you do here. Your weekly update really does help set my course through this murky ocean of deceit. In our world, what you do here has become invaluable.
12/2/16, 6:46 AM
Brother Guthlac said...
* In an acute, visible crisis, yes. Even JFK's "Ask what you can do for your country" had some effect. This, however, calls for a very long term commitment.
"I personally think that if a president got up on the podium and called all of us to rise to the challenge of an era of national sacrifice and belt-tightening, he'd get a huge positive response and a massive wave of popularity."
* Would be a wonder to see if it could be done without going down the Weimar America track. As you point out above with Shane "malaise" didn't work, even if Carter was right. Hard to see how to phrase "there is no brighter future ahead" as a broad rally cry.
12/2/16, 7:01 AM
David, by the lake said...
The conversations I've seen re forgoing the Midwest have coupled that with focusing on gains in southwest red states on the back of the demographic destiny argument. So, trading the Rustbelt for TX, AZ and the like. Any way you slice it, I think we are looking at a resurgence of the old issue of regionalization which plagued the Union from the start, albeit in a new form.
12/2/16, 7:18 AM
donalfagan said...
Trump, the Dragon, and the Minotaur
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-chinese-debt-global-imbalances-by-yanis-varoufakis-2016-11
12/2/16, 7:31 AM
Scotlyn said...
I definitely think so too... providing, and this is a biggie, that the president (and associates) volunteered to show the way and lead by example.
12/2/16, 8:35 AM
gwizard43 said...
http://lastrealindians.com/far-right-oath-keepers-seek-to-exploit-water-protectors-stand/
12/2/16, 8:50 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
He would not, of course, have used the hyper-emotional girly-girl language seen in that link, nor the Feeling Type identification of "I am him and he is me." But if the same sort of parade of, in this case, race-based insults, missed opportunities, and being in physical danger just going about his business hadn't flooded his mind, I'd be greatly surprised. IF it hadn't his his gut as hard, I'd have been surprised.
Of course, he'd have expressed it in more properly masculine language, and probably a lot more profanely, than our blogger above, but the reaction would have been similar. Perhaps somewhat more cynical.
And the intense ethnically based identification with public figures isn't all that off track. Remember when minority kids were kept in line by "Anything one of ours does wrong reflects on all of us? And will bring negative consequences down upon us?" I certainly remember Jewish kids being kept in line that way, back in the day! So that one flamboyant fraudster going to jail would have a whole bunch of people feeling the stigma.
Finally, let me note that feeling type females do often tend to exactly that sort of extravagance of speech and feeling of emotional identification - you see it most clearly in the area of love and romance, to the bafflement and dismay of their practical or rational type partners, but it is a recognized expressive style of my own sex. And, let me add, a lot more socially acceptable than the flood of profanity a man might express parallel feelings with.
12/2/16, 10:08 AM
Clay Dennis said...
12/2/16, 10:33 AM
Varun Bhaskar said...
Fill the mental spaces with our ideas, the streets with our actions, and we may just get something unexpected. I like it! Let's hope we have enough time.
David,
Synchronicity!
Regards,
Varun
12/2/16, 10:42 AM
Joel Caris said...
Yeah, I see some positive signs on the left but then a lot of avoidance of real issues. I was disappointed to see Pelosi reelected House leader, though not surprised, and we'll see how the Senate shakes out. Of course, it's hard to tell which direction all this will take until Trump actually takes office and begins work with Republican majority. There's still SO MUCH that's unknown right now, it's almost impossible to see the course of all this. On top of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a major crisis--most likely economic, but there are plenty of sketchy variables lurking out there right now--throwing a wrench in everything at some point over the next four years. It sure will be interesting!
Regardless, I plan to apply my small bit of pressure here from the left and keep a sharp eye out for whatever openings there are. If they pop up at other points of the political spectrum in which I'm comfortable entering, I'm not afraid to shift around a bit. But my affinity still lies more on the leftward end of things, so I'll work on making my mark over here for the time being. In the meantime, I'm keeping my eye on some of the more interesting upcoming members of the party. I have more to say in my comment to Shane below, but I'm more intrigued by Tulsi Gabbard all the time; my best way-out-on-a-limb guess at this point is that she runs in 2024, most likely after a second Trump term.
12/2/16, 10:58 AM
Joel Caris said...
One of my planned moves is simply contacting my local reps (all Democrats, here in Portland) and telling them where I would like to see them work with Trump and where I would like them to oppose him if he should move forward on some of his promises. Sending that on to Sanders with a not that I supported his campaign and am open to supporting him again in 2020 if I feel it's worth it, and should he run (probably a long shot) would be a good idea, so thanks for that.
I've been watching Sanders' moves with interest. He seems to be bouncing around a bit and I'm curious to see where he settles. I don't know if he has any thoughts of running in 2020--I kind of wonder if even he knows right now--but if he does, that certainly complicates his path a bit. And even if he doesn't, I imagine he wants to see someone new in office come January 2021, so he's likely trying to figure out how best to move with Trump on issues he can get behind and how best to oppose him at the same time. That's a tricky balancing act.
On a somewhat related note, I continue to watch Tulsi Gabbard with a lot of interest. Her recent unapologetic meeting with Trump and her involvement in the Standing Rock showdown is intriguing. She's clearly aiming to go national and I'll be shocked if she's not running for President at some point in the next several cycles. I'm just curious how quickly she'll throw her hat in the ring and what path she settled on to get there; the usual ascension up the ranks, in which case she would need to angle for a Senate position, Governorship, or some kind of national appointment, or just a jump straight from the House now that Trump has blown the lid off the idea that you have to first hold one of those higher positions before you can run? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her running in 2024. Heck, I'd be impressed with the chutzpah but wouldn't rule out 2020 if Trump implodes, though I somewhat doubt he will.
As for your concern on his cabinet, I don't disagree. On the other hand, I want to see what they all do. The thing is, Trump essentially is an Independent, even if he ran as a Republican. He has to build his cabinet out of something, and the likelihood that it isn't going to involve a fair number of people already in positions of power is unlikely. The question really becomes whether or not they go in and exert power reflective of their own stances and ideology, or if they follow instructions from on high.
I still think Trump is a very smart politician with a solid grasp of the views of much of this country and a desire to remain popular for various reasons: reelection, legacy, pure ego. He's working with a Republican party establishment that overtly supports a number of policies that, if enacted, would likely reign fire on them from a lot of voters. So what's he going to do?
It's going to be a very interesting four years. I hope in more good ways than bad, but we'll see.
12/2/16, 10:58 AM
Varun Bhaskar said...
I think I can answer the India question. They still haven't established anything resembling a united vision. The main opposition ideology is entrenched in the ideology of western liberalism, and is dying a slow painful death. The ideology in power is entrenched in a desire to industrialize along Japanese or Chinese lines. Until there's a rise of a different economic ideology, and a focus on integrating local government with the national, I wouldn't expect India to be a major international player. India is also entering it's first 80 year crisis, so whatever comes out the other end is going to determine the role they play.
Regards,
Varun
12/2/16, 10:58 AM
Raymond Duckling said...
In a word, no. There's a problem of statistics spinning, where Government claims to have created record number of jobs in some period of time, but reality has more to do with companies poaching skilled workers from each other, or other cases where there are layoffs and most affected workers do actually find jobs elsewhere (usually at lower pay). The point being that the government counts how many new jobs are created, but not how many where lost. Still better than the most economically depressed areas in the USA, but not a panacea.
What there is, is a huge informal economy; old data claimed it was about 1/3 the size of the formal economy, so I'd not surprised if it was about 1/2 by now. People coming back from the US do have at least some savings, that can be stretched to live for several months here (in my town, USD$1,000 per month is a profesional or low-level manager's salary), they usually have better skills and attitude than the locals (having added to the baseline Mexicat traits everything they learned while working abroad), there's also their network of friends and relatives that pass word around and allow them to establish themselves as freelance workers.
There's also the issue of cost of living. If you are already unemployed or struggling to bring in enough business to stay afloat, it makes no sense to remain in the high cost town and see your hard earned dollars evaporate. You go back to your parent's town and wait for the storm to pass (or so would think anyone who thinks the US downturn is a temporary thing).
12/2/16, 11:01 AM
Bob said...
My question with regards to Guy McPherson is: Is he doing harm or good?
Whether his prediction is correct or not is relatively uninteresting to me. My choice is to take his message at face value and see how it affects me now. Or to reject it and observe if that affects me.
I'm grateful for having heard Guy's message. As with Trump, people's reaction will not be mutual!
12/2/16, 11:29 AM
Crow Hill said...
Sunday 27 Nov 2016: No Egyptian troops in Syrian territories:
"The Egyptian foreign ministry denies reports in Lebanese media that there are Egyptian troops aiding Al-Assad forces in Syria. "These claims exist only in the imagination of those who spread them," Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman Ahmed Abu Zeid said in media statements, adding that Egypt was committed to the principle of "non-intervention in other countries' internal affairs."
Eric S.: I’d be interested to know the name of the Egyptian website you’ve found.
12/2/16, 11:29 AM
Effra said...
The first thing I thought when I read that disgraceful WP article was I bet Archdruid is annoyed he doesn't have the honour of being on that list and so I had to laugh when I read your opening paragraph this morning.
I had someone send me a link to the WP piece this week as if it were proof I was mistaken when I made a comment in a public discussion a few weeks before the election about the absurdity of Hillary Clinton proclaiming in the second debate that the Russians were endeavouring to fix the election when if taken seriously such a scenario in the event of a Trump victory would require a coup. I have pretty low expectations these days about the coherence of the arguments most self-identifying liberals make but this new Russian fake news narrative to delegitimate anyone who has their eyes engage in some simple observation of the actual world is dismal even by recent standards.
Here's honouring you anyway for how unsparing your observation is.
12/2/16, 11:29 AM
pygmycory said...
Here's a message to the Washington Post you can sign, complaining about that McCarthy-like article.
https://act.rootsaction.org/p/dia/action3/common/public/?action_KEY=12566
12/2/16, 11:31 AM
Grim said...
Example 2: Supply side/Trickle down/Voodoo economics. This had pretty much run it's course by the end of the Reagan years. George HW Bush understood this and the tax increase he approved set the stage for 10 years of shrinking deficits. Then along comes HW's neocon son and not only did he and congress double down on that failed policy, they have done so at every opportunity since. Obama has been so consistent with Bush the lessor's economic direction that Bush the lessor might have well had 8 more years.
President elect Trump's economic team does not appear to be the kind of people who do anything other than continue this failed economic policy. I'm holding out judgement on the foreign policy side.
12/2/16, 12:29 PM
David, by the lake said...
I was one of those nefarious WI voters and was just the other day castigated for it. "How does it feel to have wasted your vote?". To which I replied, "My vote was hardly wasted. Hillary did not win." I will admit to some schadenfreude, even though it is not constructive.
@Varun
No doubt a product of our ongoing and wonderfully low tech conversation!
12/2/16, 1:04 PM
inohuri said...
Hi, I was referred to this site by a friend as a good alternative news site. Judging by this one I'd have to say pretty good. One thing that bothers me though is that I don't see any mention of Israel, Zionism, Palestinians or AIPAC etc?
<<>>
For those who have not I suggest reading this blog from its beginning Wednesday, May 03, 2006. http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2006/05/real-druids.html
Navigation is on the right side of the page. Click on a year then month.
"as I was folding up my robes, a kid about eight years old came into the little alcove where the presenters stashed their gear, looked up at me and asked, "Are you a real Druid?"
"Half an hour later, as I walked home through Oregon rain, the question still burned. "
12/2/16, 1:22 PM
Dmitry Orlov said...
12/2/16, 1:45 PM
Tony said...
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2012/11/in-twilight-of-empires.html
12/2/16, 1:50 PM
Armata said...
Thanks for the link. I agree with you and Look sie that while a lot of this stuff coming from some of Hillary Clinton's more butt-hurt supporters is just plain silly, some of it is disturbingly reminiscent of certain political cults of personality that arose in the 20th century from both the far right and the revolutionary left. We know what poisonous fruits many of the resulting regimes produced.
There are quite a few people on the left who have legitimate concerns about where things are headed and even though I am a conservative, a working class white from flyover country and a Donald Trump supporter, I share many of those same concerns. But this new-found reverence for the Fuhrerprinzip on the part of many Hillary supporters and others on the left is rather disturbing and something we should keep a wary eye on.
12/2/16, 1:57 PM
Armata said...
12/2/16, 2:55 PM
zach bender said...
anyway, my point was trump did not "save" these jobs.
12/2/16, 3:13 PM
Yvonne Chireau said...
12/2/16, 3:28 PM
4threvolutionarywar said...
It will be a fun Troll and everyone is invited to sign up now with the KGB.
https://4threvolutionarywar.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/hahaha.jpg
-Akira
12/2/16, 3:53 PM
Armata said...
12/2/16, 3:54 PM
Shane W said...
okay, how's about I run for office, and you advise me, and be my Henry Kissinger? I can be offensive and politically incorrect, and tell it like it is, so that should be enough, right? If Trump can, so can I. :)
@Mary,
I know it's like the evilest evil that ever eviled amongst leftist Boomer activists, but maybe Millennial BernieBro's would be open to using Robert's Rules of Order to keep hostile parties from sabotaging the goals of their group? I know it's a tall order, but it may be the only option for getting their goals in place, and it's proven to work when rigorously (and I mean RIGOROUSLY) enforced.
12/2/16, 4:33 PM
Shane W said...
had I not been burned by Hope and Change, and simply not trusted the left, I would have volunteered for Bernie and definitely voted for him in the general. But volunteering for a campaign is a lot of effort, and I just didn't want to put that effort in to get sold out in the end.
Geez, the whole Stein thing is confusing. So, she's pimping for Hillary a la Soros for the recount, yet also the reason Hillary lost the swing states? Egads!
12/2/16, 4:38 PM
Shane W said...
as you'd said JMG, the Victorians made sex such a taboo that anyone wishing to go against the order and be avant garde simply had to openly embrace sexuality. Then you made the reference that today's PC/SJW's are doing the same thing w/racism, homophobia, sexism, et al. So, the alt-right isn't necessarily bigoted, they're just embracing all this imagery as a statement against the established taboo? Not sure I necessarily agree w/it, but it's good to know that it is an example of people embracing a taboo. Sure makes sense to abandon the whole SJW/PC effort immediately.
12/2/16, 4:43 PM
Shane W said...
12/2/16, 4:45 PM
Shane W said...
12/2/16, 4:47 PM
Shane W said...
12/2/16, 4:56 PM
Doctor Westchester said...
In regards to the saving of jobs at the Carrier plant by Trump, it has been pointed out by a number of people on the Democratic side that Obama saved a lot of blue-collar jobs by his bailout of the auto companies. Even though I've seen it suggested that this action was more about saving the bacon of some TBTF banks via backdoor channels, it's still a valid point.
Let's hope the logic behind the Carrier deal is the same as in the now old story about a new CEO/President of a troubled department store. Everyone knew that change had to happen if the store was to survive, but change would take months to implement and previous CEOs had already come in making big, but empty, promises in the past. So what did the CEO do to let his people know that changes would be forthcoming? The night before his first official day at the job he had the escalators reversed in the store so that the up ones were now going down and vice versa. Symbolic, but important.
12/2/16, 6:01 PM
Tidlösa said...
I suspect the real challenge will come in East Asia. For a protectionist America, confrontation with China makes sense - but the Chinese already call most of the shots, don´t they? Just now, Trump called the president of Taiwan to express his support, but I suspect most Taiwanese would be perfectly happy with Taiwan gaining "special status" á la Hong Kong within a state capitalist/dirigiste China. South Korea is also developing strong economic ties with China, despite their conflict with pro-Chinese North Korea. Within a decade or so, the U.S. might loose both Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines, making those shipping lines impossible to defend. (This will also affect Japan, of course.) Another U.S. ally that might go all-Chinese would be Thailand, due to their conflicts with anti-Chinese Vietnam.
Thus, it seems as if Trump´s protectionism (not bad in itself) might lead to world war with China (which would be bad)! Hopefully, some ingenious solution to this can be found, benefitting both the budding Celestial Empire and the jaded American one. Otherwise, we´re headed for interesting times...
12/2/16, 6:48 PM
Tidlösa said...
World war and/or civil war seems inevitable. Not good!
12/2/16, 6:59 PM
latheChuck said...
"One does not have to agree with every part of this view. For example the claim that the USSR collapsed because of a US engineered fall in oil prices as part of some carefully thought out US “strategy of vulnerabilities”, though widely believed and not just in Russia, is a myth and serves as a typical case of a spymaster’s belief in external, conspiratorial causes for events that actually had purely domestic, structural and sometimes even accidental causes."
What a breathe of fresh air, as if the journalist has the self-confidence to stand up for his own understanding of the truth, rather than just convey the message of his source!
12/2/16, 7:07 PM
Larry N said...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-02/house-quietly-passes-bill-targeting-russian-propaganda-websites
12/2/16, 7:38 PM
Tidlösa said...
I found the latter particularly ironic, since Danaerys is such an obviously racist trope: a White valkyrie liberating Black slaves from the clutches of evil effiminate Semites! Ha ha, White *woman´s* burden, anyone?
I admit that I didn´t get the Harry Potter references, but the two Harry Potter films I´ve seen struck me as pretty elitist, with Potter attending a very British boarding school, while the rest of humanity are "muggles" for genetic reasons...hmmm...is that how liberals see themselves, as magical creatures in a secret ivory tower high above the muggles? Or as White valkyries liberating the Black sheeple?
Perhaps those pop culture references weren´t so strange after all!
12/2/16, 7:54 PM
Unknown said...
Right about the time the VP picks were being announced, I told quite a few people that Trump should've picked Bernie Sanders as his VP for the ultimate "screw you" to both parties!
-Joel
12/2/16, 9:30 PM
Candace said...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-02/house-quietly-passes-bill-targeting-russian-propaganda-websites
@ Patricia Matthews - Igotta say I thought the Lennyletter post was truly cringeworthy I honestly can't think of a single woman I know who wouldn't roll their eyes at that one. That wasn't feminine or masculine, that was just creepily sad.
12/2/16, 11:38 PM
Unknown said...
By the everlasting gods... Apparently the only POSSIBLE reason that Hillary could've lost the election is because of what's between her legs. How shallow do they take the entire population???
This reminds me of JMG's earlier comments about banging and hollering at the presidential vending/voting machine when the usual inputs do not produce the expected output, the proverbial candy bar getting stuck in the metal spiral.
But then again, what is left to expect when the actual battles worth fighting on the feminism front have been won long ago? Suffrage, check. Equal pay for equal work, check (with exception of the extreme highest levels of the aristocracy, the 0.001% that dramatically skews the averages). Ridiculously one-sided child support courts, check. There are constantly more imagined (manufactured?) injustices where "Someone else is holding me back!"
Every woman is, whether they know it or not. Every woman has been held back by, pushed down by, grabbed in the p**** by sexism that cannot, will not, allow a woman to rise higher than a man.
As a member of today's inferior gender (male), I humbly submit that for every way that females are "held back," men are as well, we just don't complain about it (or told to "Suck it up" if we do). That's life.
Apologies for the rant, that article hit a nerve... JMG, I searched and found that you have referenced the blowback to runaway feminazism in some articles, but I'd be interested in an article dedicated to the topic.
-Joel
12/3/16, 1:27 AM
KL Cooke said...
FYI--I saw tonight that you were referenced and quoted extensively in Max Keiser's report featured on Russia Today.
I suggest you will not be overlooked by "the list" much longer.
12/3/16, 2:48 AM
Cherokee Organics said...
As far as I can understand the reality on the ground is that New Zealand is in bed with China given the basis of their exports, and to be brutally honest, when I walk around the city streets of Melbourne nowadays I see an Asian city. I have travelled around a lot of Asia and twenty years ago I would not have written that about Melbourne. Sorry mate. And I believe that the Chinese have purchased the Port of Darwin which is next to that of a US base which is manned I believe about six months of every year, as I understand things. And the Chinese own a whole lot of other crucial infrastructure down here too. The ground has shifted. We have always had overlords down here dictating policy since the Europeans first landed. There was recently a Federal politician down here who was busted publicly for being on the take from the Chinese, and I was personally surprised by how cheap he came and he was quite well spoken too which surprised me. Apparently the give away was that he was spruiking the South China Sea business, but my take on that was that he was thrown to the wolves as a diversion tactic. That is what it looks like to me anyway. My perspective on the matter was that he was an idiot, because I'd heard him speak and he didn't sound stupid.
In another truly astounding failure of the infrastructure down here: Alcoa curtails Aluminium production at Portland smelter after power failure. Call me suspicious, but I also read an article spruiking the benefits of closing down that smelter due to the benefits of reduced of carbon dioxide emissions, and it is worthwhile mentioning that the town of Portland is located on a deep water harbour, but mate, it is in the middle of nowhere on a lonely stretch of coast. We appear to be being gutted at every opportunity and it sucks. Our leaders have no vision.
You don't have to go back too far to see that the state government was whingeing about the cost of subsidising the aluminium smelter either: Massive Portland smelter risks closure as losses and costs surge.
The last Prime Minister down here who said: "I don't want to be the Prime Minister of a country that has no manufacturing" was removed from office despite being the most popular Prime Minister in recent times. The interesting thing was that years later I heard an interview with Peter Garrett (of Midnight Oil fame) who was a minister of his government at that time describe him as a national security risk. I have often wondered since then whether that was a gift of a foreign power? It sure smells like it.
Cheers
Chris
12/3/16, 2:53 AM
Shane W said...
my personal opinion: come together and slay the dying dragon (the establishment) now, then worry about differentiating yourself politically later. The most important thing to do now is to come together and slay the dragon. Kinda like how the US & USSR came together to defeat Hitler.
Besides, there's a lot of support for Bernie or a Bernie-style party (remember, Bernie's a Socialist/Indpendent, too) He would have gotten my vote if he were on the Nov. ballot.
12/3/16, 3:12 AM
Shane W said...
12/3/16, 3:15 AM
Cherokee Organics said...
I'm enjoying Overshoot immensely - thanks for the book referral by the way - and came across this relevant 1896 quote from Yale Sociologist William Graham Sumner: "Doctrines may be a frightful burden, Sumner said, for with the prestige of antiquity and tradition, they deprive the living generation of an open-minded capacity to face facts". A lovely shot across the bow that one! :-)!
Cheers
Chris
12/3/16, 3:17 AM
Mister Roboto said...
12/3/16, 5:02 AM
Gottfried Wilhelm Melvin Hicks-Leibniz said...
That's an interesting story about your friend.
She seems to suffer from confirmation bias, as do Trump's "true believers", as do most human beings.
To further borrow from Scott Adams - the Dilbert cartoonist - there are multiple movies playing out in the collective consciousness, filtering individual realities. Yet another confirmation bias for the simulation argument!
12/3/16, 6:24 AM
Roger said...
Never mind that massive American businesses were dropped right into the clutches of a nasty ruling elite in Beijing, it transformed China into an industrial power capable of producing a military machine that could challenge the United States' own.
I think I heard one peep of concern. I think it was Bill Gates that said a long while back that offshoring would have national security implications. Duh. Well, it surely did. Most astounding was the seemingly iron-clad consensus among American elites that this new "globalized" world was an unalloyed good.
Did you hear any dissenting voices from powerful Americans? Aside from the murmur of protest from Gates, I didn't. Maybe I missed it all.
In any case, the process continued apace for decades under the gaze of multiple presidential administrations and a multitude of elected representatives in Congress. As for China, it was raining money there - American money and especially know-how - and Chinese leaders were probably rubbing their eyes in disbelief.
The domestic consequences for Americans are right under everyone's nose so there's no need to belabour it, a disintegrating country as you said. And so forget about running and policing the world because the economic and financial means to do so were sent overseas, to a rival, no less.
None of this can be un-done. IMO the new globalized world is not only unworkable, it's unfixable. Too bad, so sad. Not to be insulting, but man oh man, if there's a prize for history's biggest laughingstock, the United States surely has to be a contender.
12/3/16, 8:22 AM
simon.dc3 said...
Your post titled "The Free Trade Fallac" got coverage on RT's Max Keiser Report (E1001).
Starts at 5mins 25secs. Here's the link: https://youtu.be/9qgKhZuCyYg?t=5m25s
12/3/16, 10:25 AM
latheChuck said...
The Washington Post reports today (Dec. 3, 2016) that many of the people nominated for service in the Trump administration would need to divest themselves of stocks to avoid conflicts of interest.
Obviously, the worst time to sell anything is when forced by circumstances, so the law waives taxation of their capital gains, as long as the proceeds of the sale are rolled into some investment that doesn't pose conflicts (e.g., government bonds). (What sensible family-protecting oligarch would submit to government service, if forced to sell profitable investments, and pay the taxes, too?)
Two questions come to mind:
1. If the markets are over-valued and due for a sell-off anyway, will forced selling by these folks trigger the sell-off?
2. If they think that the markets are over-valued and due for a sell-off anyway, is accepting a position in the government the most fabulous tax-sheltered excuse to pull assets out of danger without spooking the sheeple?
12/3/16, 10:36 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
Pat, ROFL - and scaring the cat.
12/3/16, 1:07 PM
David, by the lake said...
I, too, would have voted for Bernie (rather than Stein). Given that I am in WI, that vote would not have been insignificant. I think many third-party voters, as well as the uncounted abstentions, would have done the same. Given the margins of the Rustbelt results, I fully believe that would have flipped the outcome of the election. The single entity most responsible for the Democrat's loss is the DNC, hands down.
12/3/16, 1:11 PM
Ed-M said...
225 comments so far!
And as Russia, China and Iran are cementing their ties together, Trump just picked a major Iranophobe for Secy. of Defense and only time will tell about the Secy. of State -- the candidates for that slot are now winnowed down to four: Mittens Romney, Giuliani, Bob Corker and Gen. Petraeus. Looks like a bunch of Iranophobic neocons to me. What makes the Donald think he can get away with pressuring Iran without raising the ire of Russia and China?
I think we'll have our Twilight's Last Gleaming moment yet.
12/3/16, 1:12 PM
David, by the lake said...
12/3/16, 1:15 PM
inohuri said...
In the late 1970's I belonged to the Amalgamated Transit Union in Seattle. Some bus drivers cared about the riders and Metro's future as well as the Union. Whenever we attempted to contribute to a meeting we were told we were out of order with no suggestion as to what we should do. It came across as "Shut up. We drunks know what is best for you."
I suppose we could have studied the rules but with that attitude from our betters it didn't seem worthwhile.
Perhaps it could work if the rules were taught to any and all who wanted to participate. That would include the bad guys.
12/3/16, 1:15 PM
inohuri said...
The more I think about it, the more menacing the Chinese situation looks. For instance, China controls several rivers which water India, Southeast Asia and Central Asia, but which the Chinese can perhaps dam or re-direct,
<<<<<<>>>>>>>>
This sort of action is already causing conflict there and other places.
The Mekong Dams Dispute: Four Trends to Watch
https://www.internationalrivers.org/blogs/267/the-mekong-dams-dispute-four-trends-to-watch
12/3/16, 1:23 PM
Donald Hargraves said...
Example: if you're Oscar Wilde, you don't just dress fabulously, you diddle boys. Similarly, fighting against a SJW/PC world would require Frog worship and a pro-StraightWhiteMale view (complete with the proper disdain and dislike towards the other groups) to to Whole Frog.
12/3/16, 1:41 PM
Tim F said...
More than any other President Trump's behavior will be determined by whatever advisor has his ear at any given moment. I am fairly confident that he does not consciously want to torpedo our diplomatic relations with China. More likely he just wanted to promote his kid Eric's investments there. Perhaps an aide who _does_ want to screw with the admittedly silly but not nuclear war-provoking one China policy set up the call and Trump lacked the sense to say no. There are plenty of aides like that - Bolton, Heritage fellows working with the transition, etc. Who knows. Something stupid happened and the team is clearly confused about how to deal with it.
I would suggest while discussing Trump as a normal leader who will execute this specific geopolitical strategy, perhaps temper that with the distant possibility that maybe we hired Homer Simpson to oversee safety at the nuclear plant.
12/3/16, 1:52 PM
SMJ said...
I second gwizard43's question about why Britain and China (and maybe others) willingly gave up their empires. A future post perhaps? Or maybe even a book?
SMJ
12/3/16, 3:01 PM
zach bender said...
a federal appointee can meet the requirement to avoid conflicts of interest by placing her assets in a blind trust. this would not imply divestiture except as to closely held business interests. a mixed portfolio of marketable securities would likely not be sold, but simply managed as an ordinary portfolio, of which the appointee no longer had any knowledge.
in other words, the only investments the trustee would likely "pull out of" in short order would be corporations in which the appointee held something like a controlling interest. typically not something that would disturb the larger markets.
12/3/16, 4:15 PM
melo said...
Hey JMG, Your were just respectfully quoted (from your recent post on free trade) on RT's Kaiser report! It happens right before the 1/2 way point, where Max stops talking with his co-hostess Stacey Herbert -who quoted you- and dedicates the second 1/2 to interviewing a different guest every week.
Max is nuts, in a good way. ;)
12/3/16, 4:43 PM
melo said...
The owner makes 20,000 gallons a day. Regulation are his biggest headache, but he's making an inspiring fist of it. Enjoy!
12/3/16, 4:58 PM
tolkienguy said...
There's nothing wrong with giving a business a tax incentive to make it do what you want it to do, so long as you're prepared to repeal it if the business doesn't keep its end of the bargain. The idea that all businesses-foreign and domestic, outsourcers and non-outsourcers-should be given a "level playing field" is just as bad as all the rest of the neoliberal twaddle the establishment has inflicted on us over the past few decades.
Oh, and go to any of the ex-coal towns that do West Virginia, or any of the ex-factory towns that are all over the Carolinas, and repeat that "slave" bit on Main Street. Don't expect to leave with all your teeth, though.
12/3/16, 6:11 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Unknown, there's good reason for that. Israel, from my perspective, is just one more smallish Middle Eastern country. Like most such, it has a long history of rivalries with its neighbors and conflict with internal minority groups; like most nations with a big diaspora in the US, it's got an outsized lobbying presence in Washington and gets a fair amount of money cabled home by its American ex-pats and supporters -- but all things considered, it's no more important to what I'm discussing here than, say, Laos or Liberia. (Which is not meant, btw, as a putdown of either of the latter countries, each of which has its own intriguing history and culture.) I did mention Israel as a convenient example of a US client state in one earlier post, but that's about it.
Matt, thank you. I really think it may be time for those of us who recognize the importance of civility to start making it a talking point as well as a working policy, especially but not only online.
Latefall, hmm. I'll consider it.
NZ, the fact that Trump's still campaigning even though the election is over strikes me as very smart. I gather he knows that he'll need a mass following to back him up in his quarrels with Congress, and is acting accordingly.
Doc Tim, thank you. With regard to "post-truth," we've been in that world for a long time now; the only reason the media's bandying about the phrase is that they no longer have a monopoly on the manufacture of post-truthiness. But I'll consider a post, yes.
Lawfish, we'll see. My veteran friends are ecstatic about Mattis' appointment -- they see him as a soldier rather than a politician in uniform, and a realist rather than a smoke-shoveler. I haven't yet formed an opinion -- I need to do considerably more research.
Phillip, I was using sources that try to include what's under- and misreported, thus the difference. A third of all money spent on military purposes anywhere in the world is still grotesquely absurd for a single nation, you must admit.
12/3/16, 6:49 PM
zach bender said...
12/3/16, 8:04 PM
onething said...
Hmm, that perspective seems almost deliberately blind, perhaps a bit smug. Countries like Laos or Liberia do not have a huge influence in the media and motion picture industry nor are they generally numbered so frequently among the world's wealthy, nor do they have the outsized influence on international banking. Imagine the Rothchild's, with several brothers heading up the national banks of a few countries. What other country's interests are part of our core foreign policy? What other country could get a situation like that of the Palestinians ignored or in perpetual stalemate for so long?
12/3/16, 8:37 PM
Justin said...
I'll go ahead and post a link to an alt-right writer whose blog I think is interesting to read and who often offers a good perspective on the failure of modernity.
https://atlanticcenturion.wordpress.com/2016/12/03/anomie-anime-and-the-alt-right/
Some people might not quite get this, and of course I don't see the "why the alt right?" as justification for the alt right, but as Corbyn has correctly pointed out that the alt-right is a response to real problems, the only question is whose solutions will get executed?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZnqLvLbLV0
This is a long watch at nearly 90 minutes, but it offers a good explanation of the insanity that drove the original Nazis and Bolsheviks. The most important quote can be paraphrased as "We now have 'we shall never forget' monuments to the Holocaust, but how can you remember something that you do not understand? We do not understand what drove the Nazis and the Communists and the Maoists so how can we properly remember their victims?"
Dammerung (and others) if you want to coordinate with me to try and spread long descent ideas on the chans email me at nfcan1989x @google mail dot com. We can start a discord or something and try and do some meme magic. We can call it esoteric greerism.
12/3/16, 8:39 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Brother G., you don't talk about malaise. You talk about shared suffering so that our children and grandchildren can have a bright (note: not a brighter) future. Again, watch the way FDR did it; he was an expert.
David, and their demographic thinking is ruled by the same identity politics that lost them this election -- remember "women won't vote for Trump," "Hispanics won't vote for Trump," etc? Demography isn't destiny, because there is no one "Hispanic vote," there are millions of individual Hispanic voters, none of whom is a cipher, voting Democrat on demand.
Donalfagan, yep.
Scotlyn, exactly.
Gwizard, interesting. I'm far from sure, either.
Patricia, thanks for the insights on this. One of the reasons I gave it the spin I did is that my wife, who found and forwarded the essay to me, commented that she thought the author of that piece was mentally ill and needed serious professional help. Evidently not all women share your views on that sort of language.
Clay, at this rate, they're going to spend the next four years shrieking at everyone but affluent white liberal women, and then in 2020 they'll be shocked to discover that no one else cares much what affluent white liberal women think...
Varun, exactly. Break the grip of the conventional wisdom first, and all else follows.
Joel, glad to hear it. Keep up the pressure from the left, I'll keep up the pressure from the right, and with any luck (and a lot of help from others) we might just be able to make something happen.
Raymond, thank you. That's the impression I'd gotten from the sources I've read, but it's very helpful to have it confirmed by someone who's actually there.
Bob, from my perspective, I think he's doing harm, because I've encountered too many people who are using his message as an excuse to keep on living a carbon- and resource-intensive life -- after all, if we're all going to die anyway, why not?
12/3/16, 10:11 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Effra, thank you!
Grim, I won't argue. The only benefit I think the US economy might get from a Trump presidency will come from breaking trade treaties. It's still more than Clinton would have done, but that's saying very little.
Dmitry, er, you're starting to sound like a cheerleader, you know. "Give me an R!"
Armata, exactly. There are plenty of people on the left who voted for Clinton because they honestly believed that the policies she supports are the right ones. I have no quarrel with them at all; democracy thrives on disagreement. It's when that gets drowned in a personality cult that ascribes messianic qualities to one candidate and demonic qualities to the other that we get into very, very dangerous territory.
Zach, if a family is wondering whether it's going to be able to keep food on the table and a roof over its head come the new year, the relative fairness of the tax code is a very, very abstract thing indeed. You are not going to convince people to vote for the candidate you support by telling them that feeding their children isn't important -- nor are you going to do it by using hate speech, such as that nasty little jab "slave." I strongly encourage you to stop and think about how your words look to those who aren't inside your echo chamber...
4threvolutionarywar, that's possible, but my guess, based on previous experience, is that they won't stick to any one story long enough to get anywhere with it. Just as the Democrats are running around trying to pin the blame for Clinton's defeat on anyone and everyone but themselves -- they seem to have forgotten that the name of the game is "Pin the Tail on the Donkey" -- my guess is that we'll see everyone from the KGB through the Aluminum Bavariati to a sinister conspiracy of koalas getting blamed for the fact that nobody believes the media's Five O'Clock Follies any more.
Armata, it was interesting to watch Moscow yank Erdogan's leash a few days ago, wasn't it?
12/3/16, 10:32 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Doctor W., yes, but please note that I was also including TPP into the equation.
Tidlösa, neither the Chinese nor the US want a shooting war. Either or both sides could blunder into one, but I'm guessing that the more likely outcome is a trade war between China and the US in which a lot of jobs come back here, a lot of Treasury bills get dumped, and a lot of paper wealth gets erased. That might be intentional -- the US has more debt than it will ever be able to pay off, and once interest rates rise, that debt's going to become impossible even to maintain. A default is the only option, and if China starts dumping T-bills, that might be a decent excuse for same. Just a speculation...
LatheChuck, that's one reason I find overseas news sources refreshing. Some of them, at least, still remember how to report news.
Larry, my working guess is that's a parting shot from the neocons. Still, we'll see.
Tidlösa, the Harry Potter books and films were so popular precisely because they mirrored the affluent liberal worldview so precisely. Harry's evil stepparents are caricatures of the way that affluent liberal Brits think of their own working class, and Harry gets liberated from them to go to an upper-crust boarding school because he's just so special. The racism of the Malfoys et al. is stressed so heavily because it covers over the class bigotry of the "good" characters -- and when Hermione whatsername gets concerned about the treatment of the house elves, that's something to make fun of, because of course the underlings who keep the lives of the affluent running smoothly all love their jobs! Gah. (No, I'm not a fan. How did you guess?)
Candace, yep.
Unknown Joel, it's very easy to confuse the runaway entitlement fantasies of the affluent women who seized control of Second Wave feminism and are running it into the ground with the broader issues that confront women who don't happen to be white, middle-aged, affluent, and privileged. That's all the easier because the women in question have gone out of their way to foster that confusion. One of the reasons that so many women voted for Trump was precisely that they've watched the Hillary Clintons of the world throw their poorer "sisters" under the bus in order to buy their way through an assortment of glass ceilings.
Are there still issues where women receive unfair treatment on account of their sex? You bet, but those principally burden women who are poor or working class -- and you know, and I know, and they know that putting Hillary Clinton in the White House would have done absolutely nothing about those issues. One of the massive wedge issues a populist movement could take up right now would involve simply listening to poor and working class women, finding out what they actually want, and giving them some reason to believe they would get it. The Left used to do that, and still could, but unless they get a move on, they're going to be preempted...
12/3/16, 10:59 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Cherokee, many thanks for the data points! That corresponds with what I've read, but again, it's good to hear it from someone who's there on the ground. As for Overshoot, I'm delighted to hear that; I consider that one of the half dozen most important books I've ever read.
Mister R., no question, it looks like it's going to turn into a real flustered cluck...
Roger, I ain't arguing.
Simon, so that's what it was. Good to hear.
LatheChuck, two good questions, neither of which I propose to try to answer.
Ed-M, well, we'll see, won't we?
Inohuri, sure. You have to know how to use the rules to keep from being shut down unfairly. I'm not sure if this is still the case, but Toastmasters used to teach the rules of order -- those of my readers who are interested in democratic process might want to look into that.
Donald, maybe so, but Wilde ended up doing hard time and having his career destroyed. That may not be a model you want to imitate. Still, do what keepeth thou from wilting shall be the loophole in the law...
Tim, I think it's reasonable to accept the possibility that he will in fact do what he's said he'll do. The insistence on the part of the Left that he can't possibly do so, like their insistence that he couldn't possibly win, says much more about the presuppositions of that end of the political landscape than it does about Trump, you know.
SMJ, duly noted.
Melo, hmm! Interesting. Thanks for the details.
12/3/16, 11:44 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Onething, thank you. My wife and I had a little bet going as to whether pro-Israel or anti-Israel readers would jump on that first, and as a result, she owes me a backrub. I remain convinced that the long, parallel, and intricately tangled histories of philosemitism and antisemitism in the Christian world have played a vast role in making Israel look far more important to a lot of people than it actually is.
Justin (if I may), I admit I'm highly amused by the thought of "esoteric Greerism." I've read Miguel Serrano, as it happens, and would be delighted if someone someday insisted that I was actually writing these blog posts from the halls of Agharta inside the Hollow Earth, or what have you. More seriously, if getting Long Descent memes in circulation will help shake people out of the trance of progress and get them thinking about how to navigate the downward trajectory ahead, all the better.
12/4/16, 12:46 AM
Unknown said...
I mention this because his book is a referenced work of research and traces the Pharasitic thread from its beginning as described in the Old Testament to the time the book was written, and my take, having read that book, is that you are greatly underestimating the role played, not by Israel directly, but by those whose pet project Israel is. He sets out a trajectory towards global domination and the 70 years since it was written have seen that trajectory continue. That underestimation, imvho, will do your predictive prowess a dis-service.
On another note, it is pleasing to note that another reader on Tasmaniantimes.com has recommended your blog, specifically your article about the free trade fallacy.
best regards
eagle eye
12/4/16, 2:13 AM
Sven Eriksen said...
12/4/16, 4:47 AM
Shane W said...
12/4/16, 4:49 AM
Mark Leonard said...
I live in Poland and take a lively interest in Eastern European history, which leads me to disagree with a few of your statements. First, that "the United States resembles **nothing so much** as the Soviet Union in its last days." Many Poles have experience of both the USA and Russia, both then and now, and none that I know of would say this. In fact, Poles would be more likely to say that it is contemporary Russia, not the USA, that is "a bleak and dilapidated landscape of economic and social dysfunction, where the enforced cheerfulness of the mainstream media contrasts...with the...disintegration visible all around." Thus, despite the current military resurgence of Russia, and the difficult situation in the States, I don't know a single Pole who would prefer to live or to have lived in Russia rather than in the States, either then or now, unless a romantic relationship or a specific job offer was involved. I could be wrong, but doesn't Russia still have the most quickly declining population in the world? Here's a detail I can attest to: I live within a 100km of the Russian oblast of Kalinigrad, and most people here go there only to buy vodka and cigarettes at lower prices—other things are cheaper and better here. So perhaps you might say that the USA resembles the last days of the Russian's Soviet Imperium **in some ways**. In any case, it is the citizens' perceptions that are more important than absolute comparisons. So, you could say that many of your neighbors in "fly-over country" think that the United States resembles the Soviet Union in its last days, if they were to say such a thing.
Second, you wrote that "the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires both finished their imperial trajectories by being partitioned, as of course did the Soviet Union." From a local perspective, the Soviet Union was just another manifestation of the Russian Empire, which Moscow is extending once again. This is nothing new: the fortunes of the Russians have waxed and waned ever since the 1300s, when the Muscovites began to regard themselves as the sole legitimate heirs to the Kievan succession (something which other east Slavs will dispute, look at the references for the article on Kievan Rus' on Wikipedia), and began to use the Greek name for Rus' (Rossiya). Also it seems to me that, when it fell apart, the Soviet Union was not "being partitioned", but "partitioning" itself—this would reflect the view of the Eastern European countries that declared their independence at the end of WWI, lost it before or during WWII, and then regained it at the end of the Cold War. So it might be more accurate to say that that the Russian Imperium lost territories when the Soviet Union dissolved.
With regard to Mr. Orlov's comment: Although some of our leaders seem to be emulating Putin in terms of certain political tactics, it seems that West Slavs and Balts mostly do not admire and wish to emulate Russia. And this is despite centuries of intimate relationships with their neighbor to the east! I myself might be more convinced that we should emulate Russia in other ways if Mr. Orlov were to set up one of his proposed anarchist, utopian communities there, and then live there on a full-time basis for a decade or two.
12/4/16, 5:41 AM
Tidlösa said...
Can I jump on the Israel thing? ;-)
I think Israel is very important - not in and of itself (it´s been said that some farms in Texas are larger), but as a Western outpost in a largely non-Western area. Due to its history and population, Israel must accept outside support, usually from the West, while the Arab states and Iran are more unreliable. This is what makes Israel important.
Still, it´s interesting to note that American Jews and Israel seem to have a serious disagreement, for the first time since the Suez Crisis or so. American Jews largely opposed Trump, while Israel´s right-wing government favored him. Also, Israel has good relations with Russia, while the various American Jewish lobby groups are still stuck in the old paradigm (Neo-Con or liberal imperialist and hence anti-Russian).
It will be interesting to see how this works itself out. In contrast to anti-Semites, I never believed American Jews have their primary loyalty to Israel. I think their primary loyalty has been to America - or, today, to the transnational global elite largely based in America. Israel, by contrast, is nationalist and threatened by the bizarre globalist-Islamist alliance. I wouldn´t be surprised if the ADL or AIPAC soon starts to tell everyone that they are the best possible liberal Americans (with two capital A´s) and of course have nothing to do with that insignificant Jewish state in the Middle East...
As for Israel itself, they have just been given a new lease of life by the election of Trump since they can now enjoy support from both the US and Russia!
12/4/16, 5:44 AM
Tidlösa said...
"Esoteric Greerism", ahem, cough cough, that would be "the other blog", right? Or the chapter on the Jersey Devil in the new edition of "Monsters"... ;-)
Thanks for explaining Harry Potter, BTW. As I said, I never read the books and only saw two of the films (I have a thing against reading/watching something just because it´s popular), but I almost suspected something like the things you said.
I noticed you didn´t mention "A Game of Thrones". You must be the only person who isn´t watching that series. A lot of interesting monsters...
For some reason, I *do* watch "A Game of Thrones" despite everyone else doing the same, but in my defense, I can say that I *did* miss the entire first season!
12/4/16, 5:56 AM
David, by the lake said...
I agree re the demographic destiny mantra. The idea of monolithic block votes has always bothered me, since I feel that I make my own decisions (of course, being straight, white, middle-class, and male, I get less attention most of the time). As you've pointed out, women and Latinos, for example, voted for Trump in not-insignificant amounts. It will be interesting to see if the lessons from this campaign season are picked up by the next generation of political leaders.
12/4/16, 6:00 AM
trippticket said...
Duckduckgo.com
that don't engage in such repulsive behavior. You can replace your Google search bar with the Duck instead. I'm sure there are others. And I'm sure many of you are ahead of me in this regard.
Still, cheers!
12/4/16, 6:58 AM
trippticket said...
After 5 years of reading your brilliant work it finally sunk through my thick skull that one of the reasons you are so much more comfortable talking about the future in terms of centuries than most folks are, is that as a pagan you are also a reincarnationist, and expect to be around in some form to see how it turns out! I find that inspiring and exciting to contemplate myself!
All the salvationists and atheists out there believe they have just this one turn at life, and therefore make much stronger efforts to imminentize the eschaton, whatever imagined form that might assume.
I really have benefited so much from your thinking!
12/4/16, 7:06 AM
Anselmo said...
I´ll like that your country would chose the path that you recommend, but I fear that It will not happen and that the crop of suffering and pain for this mistaken election will be abundant.
12/4/16, 7:12 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
Two incidents, neither of which she had seen, one reported in the local news with everybody in the store coming to the defense of the victim, and one reported by a very irritated vocational ed teacher.
Incidentally, her defense against anxiety is a very irritating "exuberant & clownish little girl" act with outbursts like "Puppy drawg! He is sooooo kyoooote!" I only just now realized what function it served. Get her in landlady or other business mode and see how pragmatic she gets. And she is forever knitting, crocheting, or otherwise making things - including a lovely hooded sweater for her husband - you can't judge some people by the style of what comes out of their mouths, really. Especially at the intersection between the neopagan and science fiction scene.
My affluent daughter talks even greater nonsense in a completely rational and calm tone of voice with a trace of indulgence for poor overreacting Mom. "Why do you say it's a crisis era? No, we had a recession eight years ago ... the economy is doing very well, there are more jobs than ever...the displacement of the workers happens every time a new industry replaces the old....there's a lot of poverty here, but we're involved in a lot of charities..." She certainly sees me in the same light in which I see the friend described above! But cuts me some slack for having always had more brainpower than sense.
12/4/16, 7:32 AM
Justin said...
12/4/16, 8:19 AM
Varun Bhaskar said...
I have noticed that some of the women, and gay men, on the periphery of my circles have behaved similarly to that blogger. The women in my circles have behaved far more stoically, and in my mind at least, dignifiedly. I'm trying not to be too judgmental, but I can't help but feel disgusted at that level of sycophancy, or perhaps the word I'm looking for is melodrama, that sprang up after the elections.
Justin,
While I appreciate the need for rebellion I wish you guys would choose some less frightening symbolism. As a brown skinned male related to Jews by marriage, I need to be able to distinguish the real ethnic-nationalists from the politically disenfranchised. The former is actually dangerous to the existence of my loved ones and I, while I can work with the latter. Cherokee Chris,
How are the Indians doing in Australia?
Regards,
Varun
12/4/16, 9:32 AM
Luna said...
Sure, it's desirable for any empire to fall gracefully. But that isn't an option open to every empire. The British Empire had that option because it effectively delegated it to a daughter nation that shared the same language and a similar outlook: the United States. China has had that option, almost every time it has fallen (which has been a few times in its millennial history), because it remained without question the strongest country in their region, even if they were debilitated compared with the past.
I understand that any American would rather see the American empire falling gracefully, if it needs to fall at all. Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons I see it far more difficult than it was for the Spanish empire to fall gracefully. First, it would be ceding position to a country with an entirely different culture and attitudes, not to mention dominant racial group, that is, China. It's very difficult for any country to accept that. Secondly, the States still happens to have the strongest military in the world. The temptation to die fighting would be hard to resist, and there is nothing in American culture that would encourage people to resist it. Third, the reason empires normally try to hang to their power like dear life isn't narrow-mindedness, but grim realism. Hegemonic status has real perks, and it translates into very real prosperity for the country that has it. Think of the Roman Empire. The Italian peninsula was never the same after the fall of the Roman empire, simply because there aren't the resources there for the sort of prosperity it enjoyed during Roman times. It truly depended on the favorable trade terms Rome could get on everything, because of its dominance. The same applies to the States. The American economy will go down the drain once many people start feeling like they have the option to pick other economic partners. It's true that many Americans aren't aware of this, but that doesn't make it any less true.
I'm fairly sure that the likelihood of America falling gracefully is less under Trump than it would have been with Clinton, in spite of the propaganda saying otherwise. Clinton looked like somebody who would have hung on to the foreign policy status quo, which admittedly, is less than ideal. But Trump, instead, looks like somebody who will flip-flop for a while until it dawns on him that the only way of "making America great again" is to keep dominance, and the only way of keeping dominance is by starting WWIII. He certainly doesn't look like a shrewd statesman that could do a careful diplomatic strategic retreat. His claims of retreating aren't made in the sort of terms that would give anyone any confidence that he has a plan to do it in such a way that wouldn't be immediately disastrous for American interests.
Clinton might have got America into WWIII, but she always looked to me like somebody who's rational enough to know to stop before the losses become disastrous, if it looked like things were going wrong. Trump, on the other hand, looks to me like somebody almost doomed to blunder into WWIII, and once he does, like somebody who will insist on fighting it to the bitterest end.
12/4/16, 9:42 AM
Caryn said...
I have to admit, I agree with HalFiore. I really enjoy reading your well thought out essays and the articulate comments here, even when I disagree with them. (Oh, but you're still 'wrong' about abstract expressionism, BTW. Ha!) But on this political discussion, it is sounding like an echo chamber.
I do understand that this election was a big event, so a lot of folks, even here, are still rehashing and re-rehashing it all, but it is over. Hillary Clinton lost. Can we let it go? Are we going to spend the next 4 to 8 years responding to every criticism of Trump with "But Hillary would've done......"? In the same way we heard, "But George W Bush did ......" for the past 8 years? Hillary was never even President. If some female bloggers are upset about that, so what? Is it any different than the angry gun-toters at those early Obama - Town Halls? (Or is it the very feminine/emotional presentation of their gripes that is so unbearable? As opposed to the very masculine way Obama's detractors at those town halls expressed their gripes. I don't get why that would be.)
On the wishful thinking and "cautious optimism" / the speculations of some hidden brilliance of President-Elect Trump and his decisions thus far: It's reminding me of the early months before and during President Obama's first term. "Obama is playing chess while we are playing checkers" was an oft heard phrase from his supporters to explain why what we were seeing of his decisions did not match what he had said. IOW: "Don't question, he's way smarter than we are, and way smarter than we think he is!" But honestly - we just didn't want to wake from our dream of Hope and Change.
Sometimes when it walks like a duck and talks like a duck - it's not a hidden genius, & it's not playing chess. It's just a duck.
Additionally: Of course, I see this weird deification of Hillary from her supporters, even now after her loss - Equally, I see this unreasonable granting of far more benefit of the doubt to President-Elect Trump, than ( from what I've seen) he truly merits. That's why I see it as self-delusional wishful thinking.
I dunno - maybe we are all susceptible to day-dreaming that this bread and circus is what would or will make a difference for our lives in the dark dark days ahead.
Respectfully, Can we get back to discussing the coming collapse?
12/4/16, 10:27 AM
James Fauxnom said...
I believe Canada fits your criteria rather nicely. We have an over large influence on the media and motion picture industry, and are frequently numbered among the world's wealthy. We have an outsized influence on international banking, thank you fauxestate bubble. Canadian interests are certainly a core part of America's foreign (and domestic!) policy. What other country could get a situation like the first nations ignored and in perpetual stalemate for so long?
12/4/16, 11:21 AM
Bob said...
From what I've seen, the people who are willing to discuss (or entertain) Guy's predictions do not fit that mold. They are more interested in permaculture than consumerism. They value spirituality over materialism. They talk about planting trees until their final days.
12/4/16, 11:46 AM
Phil Harris said...
JMG
I found this a terrific skim read - Hudson and Keen
I had not heard of Erasmus Peshine Smith. O wow.
Russia has no Marxist background? I would never have thought of that for myself.
Nice little complimentary reference in there btw to Bank of England's Research Dept. presumably owing something to Haldane with the addition recently of Kumhof. (Kumhof gets 'peak oil' with necessary nuances.)
And American history & Republicans in contemporary light...
It would be interesting to be 21 again!
best
Phil H
12/4/16, 12:42 PM
latheChuck said...
Only a year ago, the Post was making news by publishing "news" plainly created for many years by the Russian (and, on other days, the Chinese) governments. As The Daily Caller, quoting RT, put it:
The Washington Post has sought to meet increasing demand for Russian news in the United States of America by publishing a six page news supplement devoted to the country,” wrote Russia Today, another government-owned publication, in 2006. “Even though the Washington Post didn’t create the spread they will ensure it corresponds with the paper’s editorial guidelines.”
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/29/china-russia-pay-washington-post-to-publish-their-propaganda/#ixzz4Ru6iMI7g
[sarcasm] Of course, the Washington Post (as a struggling legacy media outlet) is in no way influenced in its news coverage by Russia, China, Macy's, Target, or any of its other advertisers.[/sarcasm]
12/4/16, 12:44 PM
latheChuck said...
If you don't/can't/won't take the time to understand it, why would you expect it to produce the results you desire?
Anyone curious about Robert's Rules of Order can easily find self-study material. We follow (a simplified version of) Robert's Rules in my church business meetings. We get more or less formal as the sense of conflict to be resolved fluctuates. The format was already somewhat familiar to me from my participation in 4-H club as a young teen.
Personally, I realized that JMG was an intellectual worthy of my attention, and not just some dreamy new-age blogger, when I read his post in praise of Robert's Rules. "This guy is SERIOUS about groups of people getting stuff done!"
12/4/16, 12:55 PM
livingstone said...
12/4/16, 1:12 PM
inohuri said...
"Israel, by contrast, is nationalist and threatened by the bizarre globalist-Islamist alliance."
I'm confused. I thought Israel was part of promotion of the wannabe Muslim takfiri.
Israel directly supports "insurgents" in Syria near Israel including hospital care in their homeland.
Israel has become good buddies with the Saudi Kingdom because they want Syria broken up into weak parts.
Seems like Israeli Air Force has done some things in Syria that it is not supposed to do.
12/4/16, 1:54 PM
David, by the lake said...
I have to disagree re HRC and Trump. Now, I did not vote for the man, but I didn't vote for HRC specifically b/c of the two of them, she was by far the more imperialist and, in my opinion, would have sought to hold on to our decaying hegemony to the bitter end. I think a person engaged in business would tend to have a more pragmatic approach to conflict and the world, generally. During the campaign, only one of them was talking about imposing a no-fly zone over Syria (and by implication, threatening to shoot down Russian planes) and it wasn't Trump.
12/4/16, 2:02 PM
inohuri said...
I assume that any supposedly safe internet activities will be of great interest to the in-Security establishment simply because that is the history of their interests. TOR is an example.
I was surprised at the surprise when Snowden spoke up. I always assumed that because they could do it they would.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_web_search_engines#Tracking
12/4/16, 2:16 PM
inohuri said...
Please read my comment. I said nothing negative about Robert's Rules. I simply gave an example of their misuse.
Reading the rules is not of much use to someone like me, it is only the first step. I must put a tool to work over and over before I can get good use out of it. That is why I said training is important.
12/4/16, 2:40 PM
Shane W said...
respectfully, I would say that Trump is part of the collapse, and the collapse is not coming, but is here. (Fingers crossed), when the economy goes into depression within the next few years, and oil spikes, it will be Trump who will be calling the shots like FDR did, and I'm kinda glad we have a guy who will "grab things by the (male anatomy)", and do what needs to be done, same as Lincoln and FDR. The collapse is not out there some day, it is here and now. It's kinda odd for me to see people like you and Bill totally okay with talking about collapse, peak oil, limits to growth as long as it's comfortably in the future, but once it's upon us, and we're in the eye of the storm, it seems like you're uncomfortable with it and in denial.
12/4/16, 2:45 PM
latheChuck said...
12/4/16, 3:00 PM
Herbert Pagg said...
However, when analyzing how and why people and movements make their actions as they do, they never take a Manchurian option. Even the colonels in South America had their own motives to push for coup d'etat back when the CIA was most active in this pursuit. And North Korea has clearly benefited from getting their support split by USSR/China and pitted benefactors against each other.
12/4/16, 4:03 PM
Patricia Mathews said...
12/4/16, 4:32 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Sven, got it in one. Splat!
Mark, so noted. I haven't visited Russia, and was going on the similarity between photos I've seen of late Soviet and Yeltsin-era Russia and the Rust Belt states of the US. Your Polish friends who would rather immigrate to the US probably aren't planning on moving to Detroit or Cincinnati, I suspect!
Tidlösa, yes, you can jump on the Israel thing, but I'm still going to roll my eyes and yawn. As for "Game of Drones," since I don't own a TV, you're quite right that I don't watch it, and I'm not a fan of George RR Martin's recent work, so have let the books sail on past me. I'm told, though, that if you want to have the experience of watching the show, all you have to do is get a DVD of one of Peter Jackson's bad Tolkien movies and another DVD of softcore pornography, and interrupt the first every fifteen minutes to watch three minutes of the second...
David, exactly. A third of Hispanic men, a quarter of Hispanic women, and a solid majority of white women voted for Trump -- and ignoring the likelihood that this would happen was one of many things that cost Clinton the election.
Trippticket, hmm. You may be right, though I've never worried particularly about whether or not I'd get to see the far future.
Anselmo, I said I thought it was possible. I don't know that I'd say that it's probable, but I think there's a chance, and one of the few ways I can affect the outcome is by putting the idea out there and trying to get it some publicity.
Patricia, so noted.
Justin, hmm! I'm impressed that a concept such as "the founding myth of our culture" -- which is basically unthinkable in most circles these days -- can be discussed openly in /pol/. Every time I've talked about myth here on the Archdruid Report, I've gotten a flurry of responses to the effect of "what nonsense -- we don't believe in myths any more, we believe in facts!"
12/4/16, 4:52 PM
Justin said...
12/4/16, 4:55 PM
Justin said...
12/4/16, 4:57 PM
jt said...
thought you may like to know your piece this week was mentioned on the Keiser report.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qgKhZuCyYg
kind regards
nik
12/4/16, 5:02 PM
Rita said...
A friend of mine announced on Facebook that she is putting her money where her mount is in terms of trying to reform the Democratic Party by running for Assembly District representative for her district (in California), so I decided to do the same. Fortunately we are in different districts. Will be interesting. Apparently each state assembly district chooses 6 women and 6 men for some kind of governing or advisory board. I don't know whether the process is the same in every state, but it might be something for readers to look into if they haven't given up on electoral politics completely.
12/4/16, 5:03 PM
Nastarana said...
ttps://www.rt.com/usa/369177-dapl-pipeline-lake-rerouted/he.
This right when thousands of unarmed veterans, including Congresswoman Gabbard, were deploying to support the water protectors. I had previously read that two banks from the financing consortium have already pulled out of the project.
The blog entry from the young screen writer about the recent election made me very sad. On the evidence of what she says, the young woman is herself a far more capable person with already much more depth and variety of life experience than Mme. Clinton, and yet she buys into the cult.
Black Agenda Report has lost no time in responding to the WP accusations. BAR does not at anytime mince words, and the two articles, by editor Glenn Ford and writer Margaret Kimberly, were models of BAR's confrontational style, "from a Black, left perspective". I suspect that our host may have been overlooked because of his celebrated courtesy; no one at the DNC has ever had their feelingses hurt by anything written at The Archdruid Report.
12/4/16, 5:19 PM
David, by the lake said...
https://politicalwire.com/2016/12/04/mook-blames-media-election-forecasts/#disqus_thread
Apparently, the polls were so overwhelmingly in Clinton's favor that large numbers of people decided that their vote wasn't needed because HRC had it in the bag.
This has to be the most desperate excuse yet.
12/4/16, 5:36 PM
Yucca Glauca said...
12/4/16, 5:44 PM
Justin said...
Personally I will just regard this as bad science fiction - Clarke or Asimov wouldn't make a mistake like that.
I think JMG is right, wizards are those with the right ideology who of course fight the evils of pure evildoers who are evil because they are evil. The Lord of the Rings is sometimes rightly criticized for being too black and white, but at least it painted an epic picture in the progress.
12/4/16, 7:32 PM
onething said...
12/4/16, 7:37 PM
Cherokee Organics said...
Yes, I believe that book is also worming its way into my top 10 too. It is an impressive book and makes a solid argument with little wiggle room. Out of curiosity, I wonder if that book was vilified to the same extent that say, Limits to Growth was subjected to? Dunno. Overshoot would be a very difficult book to argue with in any meaningful sense.
If you can indulge me for a brief moment I'll share a paragraph which I read this morning. The following paragraph is more or less relevant to the current discussions here:
"When human history did not work out according to the high hopes engendered by the Age of Exuberance (note: the book explored the ecological and sociological meaning of that phrase), we began in the post-exuberant world to suffer from the illusion that we could retrieve the good old days by hating someone for stealing them from us. Examples abound."
I'll bet you've deleted some rather tiresome comments given that you mentioned Israel! Hehe! Oh no... From my perspective that country really needs to come to grips with their neighbours and their massively long supply lines and also given the fragile environment that is that part of the world. Fresh water is a very serious problem there. People are very weird with their views when it comes to that country.
Cheers
Chris
12/4/16, 7:42 PM
Bogatyr said...
12/4/16, 8:34 PM
Wendy Crim said...
12/4/16, 8:34 PM
trippticket said...
Re: Duckduckgo
I mostly get annoyed at being tracked and advertised to constantly. I mean, what are the chances that Google would know I'm into essential oils?? Weird. Duckduckgo.com does less of that.
12/5/16, 5:56 AM
Nastarana said...
https://www.wekilleverything.com/x97cpksy4wnv0p8jbjgcnxvm76q6vr
12/5/16, 6:28 AM
Caryn said...
One of the things that made the most sense and echoed my own experience was that it is a fractal collapse, not a smooth avalanche where we all tumble down together. Different people and institutions will fall or slide down, while others will stay intact for awhile longer, some will crash, some will break off, like a chunk from an iceberg and fall to a lower shelf, (that's where my family are now), some will hollow out inside and seem perfectly intact until very late in the process and then crash spectacularly into the sea.
And sadly, respectfully to you as well, Although, I agree it's here, I doubt we are anything near the MIDDLE of it all. The middle would indicate the very worst of it. I think we have a long way to go yet to be there.
I do wish I had your faith in our President-Elect, but I don't think he or any of our Leaders will be able to do much to alleviate the pains most of us are in for in the coming years. We are on our own in too many ways. That's why Green Wizardry is so helpful and important. And that's why I get a bit restless in discussing what we expect him to do; even more restless in imagining what Hillary Clinton would have done, which I see as pointless now that she is out of the picture.
While we still have the internet to exchange ideas with each other from so far away, I'm still here and still gleaning as much as I can and enjoying the company.
All the best to you and yours.
12/5/16, 7:02 AM
Tim F said...
I appreciate that there are some consistent through lines in Trump's thinking that have persisted through his various political personalities and will probably predict his behavior with some accuracy. The easiest one is personal profit. His business empire has and probably will continue to focus his attention at least as much as any concern us petty folk might have. There are other elements of course. He really likes the trappings of an authoritarian police state. He has advocated for NATO allies to pay more for a long time. That is not even a bad idea! Whether someone with his skill set can accomplish that without tying his shoes together and setting them on fire will be a fascinating to watch.
I think it is vital to tease apart his actual feelings from the obvious dreck. Trump declared he will protect Medicare. He has clearly forgotten that promise. His idea to take all of Iraq's oil is physically impossible, but aside from that it entirely belies this commitment of his to step lightly in the mideast. It is literally the ne plus ultra neoconservative dream. All those policies Trump claims to hate were directed towards that goal - invading Iraq, stabilizing Syria through force and installing a friendly leadership, etc. Neoconservatives obviously cared about Israel, but oil was the carrot that drove the cart*. Someone who seriously believes the statements you find encouraging would simply never say that about oil. Further, you have to admit that his reckless statements about nuclear weapons are either Homer Simpson-level dreck or else wildly troubling for someone who cares about keeping this world in something like the shape we found it. While I have heard the arguments from John Robb et al. about the very long term (as in, ultimate survival as a species) advantages of fast collapse versus slow collapse, I have to think that nuclear war is a counterproductive way to accomplish the former.
(*) Hell, I care about Israel, and I agree that it is tangential to the current debate and best left for a separate conversation.
12/5/16, 7:09 AM
[email protected] said...
Europe is getting exciting again with the Italian referendums. So far the market reaction has been calm but that is probably more due to the pricing in of a no vote by market participants. As somebody who works in a finance house it is rather amusing to read the desperate attempts of the highly paid experts and market strategists in trying to divine what is happening to Western politics at the moment! Folks are starting to connect a few of the dots but it is still early days.
On the subject of the French presidential elections next year, I have updated my FI blog on my current views on how it may play out, which you can read here.
https://forecastingintelligence.org/2016/12/04/a-gallic-dark-horse-emerges/
The consensus is that Le Pen doesn't have a chance but I am not so sure. What is certain is that a Le Pen victory would be a body blow to the ailing European Union which will probably not survive much longer in its current form.
12/5/16, 12:19 PM
1ab9a86a-8991-11e3-899b-000bcdcb8a73 said...
Harry’s step-parents (the Dursleys) live in a detached house, drive an expensive car, send their son to a private school “Smeltings”, all on step-father Vernon’s income as “the director of a firm called Grunnings, which made drills”. Vernon makes business deals on the golf course and plans to buy a holiday house in Spain. In a “normal owl-free morning” he “yelled at five different people … made several important telephone calls and shouted a bit more”. Step-mother and housewife Petunia has “nearly twice the usual amount of neck” & spends her days “craning over garden fences” and worrying about what Other People Think. This family is in the affluent middle classes, they just don’t happen to be liberal in any sense, nor bother to pretend to be. Rowling treats them satirically, just as she dishes out on upper class twits (Justin Finch-Fletchley, Cornelius Fudge) and a wide assortment of other characters from the rather complex class structure that all British authors have to address. The satire comes with varying degrees of affection; the warmest is perhaps reserved for Hagrid, a manifestly working class character complete with heavy regional accent & vocabulary and distinct fondness for drinking vast amounts of alcohol. He was based on a real-life bikie that Rowling met and the portrayal is unambiguously affectionate, without shrinking from Hagrid’s obvious flaws.
There’s only one Hermione, so no need for “whatsername” but in any case I’m *sure* you know the surname is Granger, a very solid name from middle-England. Her parents are both dentists, named their child after a Shakespearean character and have regular skiing holidays in France. They are upper-middle class and so Hermione initially talks and behaves with the assurance of someone expecting authority figures to be on her side, because (a) she goes to fanatical lengths to do the right thing and (b) the authority figures she knew (parents, teachers etc) played it straight. Meeting Professor Snape is then a cruel lesson; she learns to expect opposition and her fanaticism for doing the right thing becomes increasingly fierce.
When she discovers the house-elves, the wizards she confronts about it all refuse to join her crusade on their behalf, many telling her flatly she is wrong. Disappointed but undeterred, she ignores lecturing and ridicule. Stubbornly convinced she is right, she persists, not realising that even Dobby, the only free house elf, is silently undoing her efforts to free other elves because those elves were offended. Her efforts fail and she is physically ejected from the kitchens by the offended house-elves. Still undeterred, she becomes ever more shrill and continues to spar with adult wizards on the issue.
(continued....)
12/5/16, 1:08 PM
1ab9a86a-8991-11e3-899b-000bcdcb8a73 said...
At this point a casual *cough* reader of Potter might think, as you do, that the author is, in fact, putting “Hermy” in the wrong. But that’s not the case: misdirection is the rule in Potter & this is a good example. Two characters are used for exposition and truth telling in the books: Hermione and Dumbledore. They are rarely wrong about anything important, so the crucial clue is that despite the range of adult wizards telling Hermy she is wrong, we don’t hear from the only one that matters. When Dumbledore finally weighs in at the end of Book 5, not only is he firmly on Hermione’s side but the mistreatment of elves has led to the death of Sirius Black, a devastating event in the books. Subsequently, Voldemort takes elf-mistreatment further (naturally) than anyone else and this plays a major role in his demise.
When Rowling was fresh out of University studying languages and Classics, she went to work for Amnesty in London, where she encountered people having emotional breakdowns while telling extremely grim tales of their families being murdered and tortured by assorted 3rd world regimes. Hermione is a semi-autobiographical character: her travails with elves reflect Rowling’s own journey in response to these horrors, where she had to learn over time that there is a difference between desperately trying to help people and actually helping them.
12/5/16, 1:12 PM
Phil Harris said...
I did not know Kunstler was that scary.
best
Phil H
12/5/16, 1:50 PM
Mark Leonard said...
It's all relative, I think. I agree with you that things in the USA are nowhere near as good as they once were, and that this is not acceptable to long-term residents of the country, hence the anger and the willingness to take a risk and vote for an outsider. I also agree with many of your explanations about why this is happening.
But I _was_ in Detroit when I visited the USA this summer, and in the eyes of an itinerant teacher who worked with slum kids in Rio de Janeiro, where the road literally ended in the jungles of Costa Rica, and in a town in Massachusetts that was full of both shuttered mills and growing immigrant communities, before settling in one of the poorer parts of Poland, it didn't look so bad.
I did a quick search for immigration statistics in Detroit and found that, from 2000 to 2010, the Detroit metro area’s native-born population declined by -4.5% (or -185,712) while the foreign-born population increased by 11.9% (or 39,722 (www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/GrowingHeartland_June2014.pdf) Although things may be getting worse in Detroit (I don't know), I think we can agree that even by 2000 the city was well past its industrial prime.
One of my Polish in-laws has a green card and works in the States, "doing the jobs the Americans don't want to do," as he puts it (he's in the Delaware/Maryland area, so no, not Detroit or Cincinnati). I don't put his words here to offend anyone, but I want to emphasize the point that a lot depends on what you're used to. And as I think you pointed out some time ago, an inordinate amount of the world's wealth and energy still flows to the States.
12/5/16, 2:00 PM
Armata said...
It was interesting indeed to see Moscow yank Erdogan's chain and remind him of who the new boss is. The way the Russians did it was fascinating as well, by giving the Syrians the green light to conduct limited airstrikes against Turkish forces in northern Syria when everyone knows full well it's the Russian Aerospace Force that is calling the shots in the Russo-Syrian air campaign. That way the Russians could show the Turks they meant business and warn them to back off in Syria while keeping their own hands clean and avoiding a direct confrontation.
Russia is the new kingmaker in that part of the world and it's been very interesting to see how the American government is increasingly being frozen out of the deals in that part of the world that really matter, like the Syrian peace talks and plans by the Russians, Israelis and Turks to turn Turkey into a major gas export hub for Europe and beyond by building major pipelines from both Russia and Israel to a new terminal in northwestern Turkey.
It's also quite fascinating to see how long-standing American client states, such as Israel, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, are rapidly moving to improve relations with Russia. One of the things that has really impressed me about Russian diplomacy and foreign policy in the Middle East has been Russia's ability to stay on good terms with a wide range of opposing powers in the Middle East, such as maintaining an alliance with Iran and at the same time having strong, cordial ties with Iran's archenemy Israel. The contrast with America's ham-handed, binary, moralizing "your with us or against us" approach in recent decades could not be greater.
One can see the political equivalent of a major tectonic shift occurring in the Middle East. I for one am convinced we are seeing the return of Russia to superpower status and further confirmation that Oswald Spengler's prophecies concerning Russia were largely correct.
Speaking of Erdogan, did you see his proposal to Russia, China and Iran to replace trading in dollars with direct deals in national currencies? There have been moves afoot by both Russia and China to dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency and replace it with a basket of major Eurasian currencies as the new global standard, so this appears to me to be one more sign the American Empire is waning.
12/5/16, 2:03 PM
Shane W said...
I'm sorry, I should have been more clear. I was referring specifically to the idea that politics is not part and parcel of the effects of peak oil, limits to growth, and collapse. Our collective response since 1980 would predict a Trump in our future. It did seem in your post that you indicated you did not consider it to be part of it, and I feel that it is. Regarding collapse, you probably are further along than me :) As for a depression, I do think we are in for the next fractal collapse stage, one we haven't seen since the 70s and of a severity not seen since the 30s. It's time to pay the piper. Still, time will tell...
12/5/16, 2:30 PM
josh keiler said...
https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/369081-episode-max-keiser-1001/
12/5/16, 3:42 PM
Jerome Purtzer said...
12/5/16, 4:35 PM
August Johnson said...
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/12/05/economist-trump-must-prepare-for-showdown-with-china.html
President-elect Trump must prepare for a diplomatic and perhaps military showdown in the Pacific and to confront Beijing on the massive trade imbalance that finances Chinese mercantilism and adventurism.
American prosperity and security depend on it.
12/5/16, 4:43 PM
patriciaormsby said...
The one multi-dimensional character in her work (at least as far as I read) that was able to attract favorable attention from no less than Salman Rushdie, was the low-class, insult-spitting, darkly brooding, sinister, intelligent, secretly golden hearted Snape. She insulted everyone enamored with this character, saying, "Some girls like bad boys." (Sound familiar?) She couldn't understand why anyone would like him. (She admits Snape was based on a real person in her life--I imagine she drove one of her science teachers to dudgeon.)
12/5/16, 5:19 PM
Kfish said...
It's hilarious and sad at the same time to watch large chunks of the blogosphere(Tumblr is particularly bad for it) screaming about how Hate Has Won and How Shall We Survive The Next Four Years? All of these people are by default from a literate, computer-owning, English-speaking background.
12/5/16, 5:40 PM
trippticket said...
I always wondered how our internal proletariat would make common cause with the external, according to Toynbee's narrative, when our country is so isolated geographically. Well, thank you! Thank you for the good news about the pipeline!! I'm absolutely thrilled about that, and glad you shared it.
Our disenfranchised military personnel making common cause with the disenfranchised Sioux over imperial trespassing. Hmm. Apparently the "external" proletariat in question is an INTERNAL "external" proletariat! Will wonders never cease?
Even when it seems difficult for the pattern to be followed the pattern emerges anyway, without the least concern for my consternation.
12/5/16, 5:41 PM
grisom said...
12/5/16, 5:47 PM
trippticket said...
"Personally I will just regard this as bad science fiction - Clarke or Asimov wouldn't make a mistake like that."
Um...Asimov might.
12/5/16, 5:48 PM
patriciaormsby said...
I took the idea of "religions as keepers of history" that you wrote about in the Ecotechnic Future, with a couple of examples from Shinto and a question to everyone about what parts of modern culture they would like to see preserved.
I also mentioned a recent news story about "illegal farming," which is happening on otherwise disused land along river floodplains, which obviously flood regularly. It seems to be mostly resourceful Chinese and a few older Japanese doing this. It is an example of resilience in a country with less than 40% food self-sufficiency and lots of farmland simply going to waste as the children of aging farmers eschew that life. I proposed seeking a legal framework to allow use of the land by anyone willing to do it.
I also mentioned your concept of "Collapse Before the Rush," translating "collapse" carefully as "tettai," which is closer to "retreat," and asking people to consider what things in their lives were unsustainable over the long term, choose one and give it up early.
I doubt very much that this will be mentioned in the five minutes or so that make it all the way to broadcasting. We went into this expecting a fluff piece again, and satisfied at that. People will get curious and then we can talk to them.
They did film me explaining to our community's Harley dealer (who really looks the part) and our German Catholic guy with local TV acting experience how to perform one of the genteel parts of the ceremony. I truly hope that makes the cut.
To anyone in the Kanto area, watch TV Tokyo this Friday night at 9:00 p.m. "Tokoro-san no Gakko de Oshiete Kurenai Sokonno Tokoro". It'll be wedged somewhere in an hour of other entertainment.
12/5/16, 5:53 PM
Caryn said...
Thanks so much for clarifying. You're correct. I didn't get that initially. I see what you mean now, and I agree. As for preparing for collapse - Wish I were further along - it always feels like two steps forward, one step back. UGH! But we're all doing the best we can, eh?
Cheers,
12/5/16, 6:36 PM
Candace said...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TBlTvYTvg78
12/5/16, 6:45 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Caryn, er, I've written about the decline and fall of industrial civilization from every angle I can think of. I've explored it from an energetic standpoint, a historical standpoint, an economic standpoint, a military standpoint, a religious standpoint, a magical standpoint, and even brought in Conan the Barbarian and Hermann Hesse. (Now there's a conversation I would love to host...) I can't think of much else to say on the subject that isn't a rehash of what I've already said, and that option doesn't interest me. Trump's election, like the Brexit vote and the Italian referendum, are part of a massive political shift in the industrial world, and that does interest me -- and ultimately, I write about the subjects I want to write about, for those who want to read about them.
James, good! The Canadians have been far too reticent about their rightful status as Evil Country Manipulating Everyone, though. We clearly need to see books that add up the words of "O Canada" to get 666, or what have you. ;-)
Bob, I'm glad to hear that. A lot of the people I used to see at peak oil events repeating McPherson's talking points, and going through elaborate grieving rituals for all life on earth, used to climb, alone, into SUVs afterwards to drive home to their well-paid corporate jobs.
Phil, interesting. I'll check it out.
Livingstone, if you go back in this blog's archives to 2008, you'll find that when Obama was elected I expressed cautious optimism that he might turn out to be a good president, and gave the guy the benefit of the doubt until he'd demonstrated what kind of head of state he was. I intend to do the same thing in this case. That certainly seems more useful to me than joining in the chorus of denunciation that's the mainstream's latest mandatory round of virtue signalling.
Herbert, true enough.
Justin, duly noted. 8chan is where I've done most of my occasional lurking, anyway.
Jt, I see a lot of my readers also follow the Keiser Report!
Rita, excellent! I wish you success in your run for election and the political career that I hope will follow. Seriously, folks, if you're unimpressed by the candidates on offer, run for an office yourself, or help someone else to do so -- that's one of the few ways to make change happen.
12/5/16, 6:59 PM
Shane W said...
good to hear. As soon as Mary mentioned it, I thought, Robert's Rules of Order could be used against the Hillbots to keep them from hijacking the group...
12/5/16, 7:20 PM
Nastarana said...
I admit to having spent some time at, yes, Daily Kos, trying to explain to the bots why their candidate was a bridge too far for many of us, and to say it was like talking to a wall would be an insult to good architecture.
J K Rowling's adult fiction is not bad; not Dickens or Balzac, but not bad, and blessedly free of the affectations too often indulged in by British authors (Pym, Drabble and Byatt, for example). I thought her novel about politics in an English village was rather good, and her detective fiction, by "Robert Galbraith" is pleasant enough, not comparable to Chandler or Simenon, but readable. For me, Rowling's cultural importance is that she is a highly visible part of a long overdue, IMHO, revival of storytelling in popular fiction. The children's series, you either hate them or love them, or your kids do. My kid read them; she also obsessively read Nancy Drew, and then outgrew both.
12/5/16, 7:50 PM
John Michael Greer said...
David, I'm really ready to pout at this point, because nobody's blamed me for causing Clinton's defeat. First I get ignored by the WaPo, then by the Democrats -- I guess archdruids get no respect these days. ;-)
Yucca, there's a difference between evil and just plain silly!
Onething, nah, my wife and I make little bets on things like this all the time. It adds to the entertainment value of the blog.
Cherokee, oddly enough, I've heard nothing from the pro-Israel side of the line. It's all people who insist that I'm ignoring the horrible Zionist menace and so on. I admit that surprises me.
Bogatyr, the latter, I think. The federal government backs away very quickly these days whenever a confrontation involves people who know how to use guns.
Nastarana, those are pretty good. Do you follow Worst of McMansions? Another worthy series of architectural eyesores.
Tim, I gave Obama the benefit of the doubt until he got into office and showed what he was actually going to do, and I propose to do the same thing with Trump. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander!
Lordberia3, the French situation is going to be interesting. I've been told, by a friend there, that in the town where he lives, many more people are registering to vote than usual. That's just one report from one town, of course, but if the polls are even close come election day, France, Europe, and the world may be in for a shock.
1ab, duly noted. I'm entirely willing to be corrected, as it's been a long time since I looked at Rowling's books. I read the first three when they first came out, found the first one a mildly enjoyable mashup of fantasy cliches and the generic English public school novel, was mildly bored by the second and third, and got about two chapters into the fourth before I looked over the vast mass of unturned pages still to go, decided the story wasn't interesting enough to justify the slog, and taking it back to the library. (That's a matter of personal taste rather than a substantive criticism, btw; I'm sure there are plenty of people who find my fiction uninteresting, too.) Thus I was going on the basis of what I recall of a not very interesting read, rather some years ago. As for Hermione whatsername, I used that phrase because I honestly couldn't recall the character's name -- if a book or a series doesn't hold my interest, the details don't always stick.
12/5/16, 9:53 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Armata, I figured that Erdogan's proposal to trade with Russia, China, and Iran in local currencies was something on the order of an application to join their club -- and thus a pretty conclusive demonstration that the Eurasian bloc had just gotten another very strategically located client state. Things are changing very quickly at this point.
Jerome, again, we'll just have to see.
August, I'm sorry to say that the one truly limitless resource in the cosmos is human stupidity. Yeah, that one's pretty epic.
Kfish, too funny. Yes, you can say that. Out here on the leafy fringes where archdruids lurk, neither the political correctness of the Left nor the patriotic correctness of the Right gets cut any slack.
Trippticket, yep. The broader context, though, is on the southern border. When Mexican drug gangs finish the process of ripening into warbands, and people on this side of the Rio Grande begin to discover that a local warlord is less expensive to support and less intrusive to live with than a metastatic national bureaucracy in the early stages of rigor mortis, we reach the endgame.
Grisom, thank you. Seriously, I whooped aloud when I read that. Consensus politics has had activism dead in the water for decades, because it's so effective a means to replace action with endless bickering and to allow cliques of professional activists to hijack popular movements and run them into the ground. Replace it with democratic process, and you've got a means to effect substantive change.
Patricia, congratulations! If it gets put up anywhere online, please post a link.
Candace, excellent.
12/5/16, 10:09 PM
Cherokee Organics said...
Oh that is interesting. The first thing that popped into my head after reading your reply was that contraction begins at the periphery of an empire. A few months ago, I mentioned to you the story that was recounted to me from my now deceased wife’s uncle about how the Russians felt about and treated the Cubans at a Russian customs area. Just sayin...
Cheers
Chris
12/5/16, 10:30 PM
Morwen Blaisdale said...
12/5/16, 10:44 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Morwen, yeah, that's us. One of the things that I suspect is cranking up the volume on social unrest in the flyover states is that the USA that's portrayed in the media, crappy movies and all, isn't a USA that actually exists, and the legitimacy of the existing order of things is one of many things that's toppled into the widening chasm between image and reality.
12/5/16, 11:19 PM
John Michael Greer said...
Also, the first issue of MYTHIC, a new quarterly magazine of science fiction and fantasy, has just hit the stands. Among other good stories, reviews, and the like, it's got an essay of mine on the decline and revival of science fiction and fantasy, and also a short story, "The Phantom of the Dust," which I've set in the same universe of topsy-turvy Lovecraftian horror as The Weird of Hali: Innsmouth, pitting Owen Merrill and sorceress Jenny Chaudronnier against a sinister mystery from colonial days...
12/5/16, 11:26 PM
John Michael Greer said...
12/5/16, 11:27 PM
David from Normandy said...
About next presidential election in France, here is how I see the reasoning of the majority of my fellow citizens and medias:
The left is in tatters.
The far right (Le Pen) is scary enough that a lot of leftists will vote for the candidate of the right.
So the right will win.
After all, it happened this way in the past. So it is not that unlogical.
BUT, in my opinion, another result is possible:
the newly anointed champion of the right (Fillon) is an ultra classic right wing nowaday politician. The kind that wants the economy to be more and more globalized, and the rich to be more rich because you know, it benefits anybody when the rich are happy. Add that he is a perfect example of the french high society, so disconnected with the life of the majority that I am pretty sure he doesn't have a clue how he seems insufferably spiteful in the eyes of ordinary people. Of course he is a Catholic, and french Catholics see themselves as the ultimate reference when you speak about moral values. Sorry, you can delete "moral", as long as there are any values involved THEY have the truth and YOU have to comply. I don't know if it's a french characteristic.
I suspect that a lot of people won't vote for that so-called favorite candidate. Even if they don't say it in the polls.
So, if the final turn is between right and far right, it is possible that this time voters from the left stay home.
It is even possible, though very unlikely, that the far left also creates a surprise.
In short, many people fantacize to tell the good society: screw your mockery of a republican pact, now it's paytime.
Enough people for an earthquake?
We'll see in a few months.
12/6/16, 1:58 AM
Fred the First said...
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-art-of-manliness/id332516054?mt=2&i=378398770
Who are they preparing to fight against? Who do they really report to - their former military units or their local civilian officials? Where does their loyalty lie?
12/6/16, 4:45 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
12/6/16, 5:47 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
Excuse me? While not a bot, I voted for her. A close friend, who has a massive blind spot on the subject of Hillary's opposition ("Gary Johnson lost because he didn't hate women, minorities, and gays enough for the Libertarians and the Berniebros." Sigh) is as book-happy as I am and as much a reader as a Fox-New-Addicted rider (male) in our sf club carpool. And as the circle member who believed in every New Age strangeness theory that ever came down the road when she joined us. And as....
Sorry. The intersection of book-reading and common sense has long been known not to be an identity and in some cases, disjoint sets. And we all have our blind spots. Well, of course, except me and thee.....
12/6/16, 5:55 AM
trippticket said...
"The consensus is that Le Pen doesn't have a chance but I am not so sure. What is certain is that a Le Pen victory would be a body blow to the ailing European Union which will probably not survive much longer in its current form."
If the consensus is that Le Pen doesn't have a chance, I would say her chances are quite good!
12/6/16, 5:59 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
Chilblains. That's what I'm told those nasty dry-and-cold caused cracks, made worse by dishwashing etc, are called. Wouldn't wish them on any of the Evil Dark Lords and Ladies domestic or foreign running around trying to be big shots.
12/6/16, 6:02 AM
Ramaraj said...
Trump has made positive overtures to Russia, Pakistan, Philippines and Japan. He has deliberately picked quarrels with Iran, Cuba, Saudi Arabia and China (by calling Taiwan). Of course, the foreign policy establishment is horrified and screaming 'No, No, No, All wrong!!!'.
This doesn't match with the competing power blocs that exist today. I mean, Pakistan, Russia and Iran counted as America's enemies till recently, while Saudi Arabia was an ally. It looks, as per existing wisdom, that Trump is hopelessly confused and/or stupid.
But I feel there's a method behind this apparent madness. It looks like brilliant (and bold) strategy to divide America's rivals into different groups.It messes up the existing global alliances big time with an assortment of diplomatic sticks and carrots and the resulting geopolitical realignments could well benefit America.
It's just a feeling I have, I don't have any analysis or historical parallels to offer, but I am sure you will agree with me on this: Trump is for too clever for us to be dismissive of his actions. And of course, we'll have to see.
What's your take?
Ramaraj
12/6/16, 6:34 AM
August Johnson said...
----
Stephen Moore, an economic adviser to Donald Trump, made crystal clear during an interview Monday how he felt about the president-elect’s call with the president of Taiwan.
“If China doesn’t like it, screw ‘em,” Moore, one of five Steves on Trump’s economic advisory team, told the hosts of the Big John and Ray radio show, according to CNN.
“We gotta stand by Taiwan,” he continued. “We see what’s happening in China with the way they’re saber-rattling out there in the East, and it’s about time we do what Reagan did: We stand up to these bullies and say we’re not gonna let you do this.”
12/6/16, 7:02 AM
zentao said...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI7aHhy8tyU&feature=youtu.be&list=PLxzJmNzonMVPhx58tQQmP-UloFEZwxMk6
A "home farming robot"???
12/6/16, 7:23 AM
August Johnson said...
Before you wish for that sort of thing to happen, you should read Selco's blog. Dodging snipers just to go out and find food. You don't want to wish for that!
----
My name is Selco and I am from the Balkan region, and as some of you may know it was hell here from 92-95, anyway, for 1 whole year I lived and survived in a city WITHOUT: electricity, fuel, running water, real food distribution, or distribution of any goods, or any kind of organized law or government.
The city was surrounded for 1 year and in that city actually it was SHTF situation. We were all thrown into this and our allies were our enemies from one day to the next. Today I’m prepared but I learned a lot going through this hard time.
12/6/16, 8:04 AM
August Johnson said...
I've been involved with a lot of people who are interested in emergency communications and we have a county-wide group making progress. Several people who work for the city of Sweet Home have gotten or are getting their Ham Radio licenses. We have Ham Radios installed at the Fire Station and Police Station. We have a whole group that are from all political persuasions, from quite left to quite far on the right, all working together. I'm helping those who want to learn about the more technical side of the radio stuff. This is a real community building going on. This is with the County ARES (Amateur Radio Emergency Services) groups. The City, Police and Fire Department are wonderfully supportive of what we're doing.
I keep putting out ideas about resilience and so on in the way we do things, without trying to push a so-called "Green" agenda. The different people really like the idea of having a simple solar-powered battery setup for running their Ham Radio for when the power is out.
I'm located up on a high ridge outside town and have put up a 2 meter repeater that's fully battery backed up, pretty much covers the whole populated part of the county. It'll have full solar backup in the near future. Lots of us meet there for informal chats to keep prepared and in touch.
Sometimes I think I should write a blog about our activities, but I'm not all that good a writer. I wish more people would see how Ham radio or other activities can be used to bring different people together. Other than a few minor lapses, I keep myself focused on what to do going forward and try to ignore all the crap going on at higher levels. Local community is the most important.
August KG7BZ
12/6/16, 9:21 AM
Clay Dennis said...
12/6/16, 10:09 AM
Bruno Bolzon said...
12/6/16, 10:26 AM
[email protected] said...
My own view is that Le Pen has a real chance to get out the vote of the youth unemployed, the blue-collar voters who traditionally have a low turnout compared to other social groups in French society. Throw in a potentially significant left-wing "shy FN" vote (assuming that Le Pen campaigns on a traditionally socialist economic platform and downgrades the "security" and "identity" issues usually associated with the far right) and it could be a very close race!
The lessons of the Italian referendum was that pollsters significantly underestimated the turnout of the youth, unemployed and the lower classes and didn't factor in a "shy no vote" from the electorate. This is why the polls seriously under-estimated the size of the no victory. I suspect that something similar will happen in France and your anecdote fits in with that.
The German elections are interesting as well. Merkel appears to be guaranteed a victory and I don't know any serious analyst who thinks she will lose. However, is is possible that she may lose? Will need to do more research on the subject.
12/6/16, 10:56 AM
Patricia Mathews said...
12/6/16, 10:56 AM
pygmycory said...
12/6/16, 11:45 AM
Glenn Murray said...
12/6/16, 11:46 AM
con-science said...
I actually made a small bet on Trump the night of the vote and spent some time explaining to my friends here that followed the election the reasons so many people voted for him, but the first thing that came out after the election was Trump easing on obamacare, and now this billion dollar play in the front yard of Putin? I mean, if they knew all along what people wanted to hear (Trump has been trying to become president for 30 years) and had him say it just to trick them, this will be beyond dirty.
12/6/16, 12:22 PM
Bob said...
If it's any consolation, I'm glad they did not repeat your talking points.
When I first heard about McPherson I thought his message was harmful, especially for parents. I believed it was irresponsible of him to make these predictions given the debate disputing his claims. Then I learned he wasn't advocating that people do nothing, or that we give up and embrace nihilism. In my mind it is sufficient that a few people are willing to re-evaluate their lives. Those are the discussions I'm drawn to.
If McPherson is the pied piper of doom, you are the pied piper of decline. Of course, it's the pied pipers of perpetual progress that garner most of the attention.
12/6/16, 1:01 PM
Armata said...
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/12/06/german-state-broadcaster-fails-report-migrant-rape-murder/
12/6/16, 1:14 PM
LewisLucanBooks said...
I was working in libraries at the time the books started coming out. One good side effect was that kids who read very little, suddenly started reading. And while they were waiting for the next book to come out, cast about for things similar ... or not so similar. Reading is a habit. I really don't care what the little blighters read, as long as they read something.
After a lot of resistance (I also don't like to follow "the crowd.") I read the first book just to see what all the hoop-la was about. My take on it was that old archetypal story of how your "real" parents are going to show up and rescue you from these awful people you were forced to live with who weren't by any stretch of the imagination your REAL parents. Your real parents were probably a rock star and a super model. Children's and Young Adult literature are littered with this story.
Watched one or two of the movies. Mindless entertainment. Pure escapism. Cool special effects. But after awhile, I couldn't remember which one's I'd seen and which ones, not. Lost interest at that point. If nothing else, there's quit a few fine young actors who came out of the series. Who have seemed to keep themselves together and not washed up on the shore of usual child actors gone bad. Lew
12/6/16, 1:45 PM
Armata said...
The blood of our soldiers is on the hands of the hirer of the murder. These people who hired, supported and armed these beasts in human form, called them opposition to justify themselves towards their own consciences and voters.
Yes, the blood of our soldiers is on your hands, ladies and gentlemen, the patrons of terrorists, from the United States, Britain, France and other countries.
All I can say is wow, just wow!
This is really strong stuff and shows just how fed up the Russians are with the US government playing footsie with Islamic extremists in the Middle East. It's well worth taking the time to watch. It's been a long time since I have seen a senior Russian official so visibly angry during a media briefing.
This of course follows the "accidental" American airstrikes on Deir Ezzor that killed as many as 83 Syrian soldiers and are also reported to have killed several Russian servicemen who were acting as forward air controllers. As we discussed in an earlier post, there were reports of a retaliatory Russian cruise missile strike against a hippogriff base near Aleppo in which several American military advisors were rumored to have been killed. I wonder if we will see some sort of retribution for this particular attack as well, either by the Russians or their local allies.
At some point, these regime change games the US government has been playing are going to come back and bite us hard in the bum. We've got a truck-load of bad karma headed our way thanks to all the nasty things our government has been doing in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America and elsewhere in the name of "freedom", "democracy", "free trade" and all the rest.
The Clintdubyobama administration has been a disaster for America both at home and abroad and now the Russians believe, with quite a lot of justification, that we are responsible for yet another terrorist atrocity in which Russian citizens were murdered. Like many Trump voters, I voted for Barack Obama both times he ran for president. And like so many Americans, I have been profoundly disappointed with the way he talked a good game but promptly sold out to the establishment. I can't wait to see him and the neocon blood-drinkers in his administration like Victoria Nuland and Samantha Power out of office. I sincerely hope Trump follows through on his campaign promise to normalize relations with Russia and get us the hell out of the Middle East.
Enough is enough!
12/6/16, 2:27 PM
Armata said...
12/6/16, 2:43 PM
donalfagan said...
My daughter writes crossover fanfic, and they often feature HP as a greatly wronged child reincarnated into some anime like Detective Conan or Durarara.
12/6/16, 5:05 PM
Shane W said...
I read the piece about the Alt Right, and it was very informative, but, as a gay man, I feel they're feeding into a false binary and trying to fit the mold of a SJW's caricature of an "evil bigot". JMG had mentioned, "what you contemplate, you imitate" in reference to the right and Communism, and how Ayn Rand and her minions became the Communist caricature of an evil capitalist. I think that may be what is at work here. It seems like they're just accepting the SJW's presuppositions and inverting the values. It would be so much better if they focused on the elite rather than minorities. I can assure you, the average, wage class LGBT person and person of color is suffering as much as the white wage class, and I know plenty of immigrants who are disillusioned with the whole American dream, and feel exploited by the whole system. Unassimilated immigrants are one of the few representatives of traditional culture in this country, and the white wage class would do well to emulate them. A good strategy is always to make common cause with people in the same boat as you.
@Mark and others,
Yes, the Western world has a standard of living that is/has been the gold standard, but THAT IS PART OF THE PROBLEM. As JMG has stated on this blog since its inception, that is not a sustainable way of life, and the resources to maintain it are not there anymore. Right now, it is being propped up by unplayable debt. Therefore, the ideal should be to find some less extravagant lifestyle to emulate. Faulting the Russians, Brazilians, and others for not having as extravagant a lifestyle as the US & the West misses the point. Their lifestyle is not as unsustainable as ours, and does not use as much resources. That is why it is an advantage in this age of scarcity industrialism. Whoever gets by on less is ahead.
I must agree with JMG, I'm not pro-Trump, but I am willing to give him a chance to change things, and, unlike Obama's supporters, I am sure that Trump's supporters will loose patience with him in short order if he sells them out and make their voices heard by other, more muscular, means. These are well armed people well versed in the use of violence, folks.
I must say, the insanity seems to continue on the leftward end of things. I met with an older (40-something--"40 is the new 60") salary class lesbian couple Hillary supporters last night for the first time since the election. They work for the state, so I was interested in their take on the whole election, as our state became the last Southern state House to flip to GOP this past election. They seemed to be in acceptance about the whole thing, but it was denial all the way, "evil 'ists'", "victory for bigotry", "Pence will be calling the shots", "It was Comey's fault", "people won't elect a woman", etc. Total denial. Then tonight, I go to the local Fairness group, and the local GSA came, and it was pure hysteria about bigotry. The adults were not the adults in the room, and they were not setting a good example for the teens.
I'm really hopeful for the post-millennial, 25 and under generation coming of age. I'm hopeful that they'll be the most "small-c" conservative generation to come down the pike in a while, and that the coming depression will have the same effect on them that it had on their great-grandparents, and that they're Boomer grandparents will be turning in their graves seeing how much they resemble their parents.
12/6/16, 5:42 PM
rapier said...
So I'm thinking it's over for The Enlightenment, in which case it's over for any recognizable form of representative Democracy, not to put too fine a point on it. Take that you liberals. Only the deepest thinkers understood back in the day that the fascists of the 40's intended to bring an end to the era of The Enlightenment too. Well it's been a long time coming but now it's here.
12/6/16, 6:15 PM
Shane W said...
12/7/16, 3:05 AM
Shane W said...
under our constitution, Trump does not take office until Jan. Therefore, any buildup now is the responsibility of the current Obama administration...
I forgot to mention, GSA-Gay Straight Alliance. Apparently, our local high school is a beehive of some petty warfare between Trump supporters and SJW's, of which the GSA seems to be in the middle. Supposedly, it's been newsworthy. All in the name of tolerance. Sigh. The most LGBT friendly Republican to ever be elected president, and an incoming state House speaker who says he's "not going to focus on social issues", and this is the response? I can assure you, this would not be the case 20 years ago, social issues were the red meat, and the GOP were feeding the lions and tigers. We'll see what actually happens come Jan. Oh, and I don't even need to pass a bill to raise speed limits, thank you to an administrative change by the Bevin administration.
12/7/16, 3:20 AM
inohuri said...
Russia Today Plagiarizes Moon of Alabama - Which Is The "Russian Propaganda Outlet"?
"It is quite ironic - and sad - then that this financially defenseless site gets defamed as "Russian propaganda outlet" while a legitimate Russian state propaganda organization, Russia Today, is stealing our content without proper attribution and without any compensation."
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/12/falsely-defamed-russian-propaganda-outlet-gets-plagarized-by-russian-state-tv.html
12/7/16, 7:39 AM
trippticket said...
"Chilblains. That's what I'm told those nasty dry-and-cold caused cracks, made worse by dishwashing etc, are called. Wouldn't wish them on any of the Evil Dark Lords and Ladies domestic or foreign running around trying to be big shots."
Mrs. Trippticket suggests:
"Try a mustard poultice to warm chilblains. Wash off with cool water (mild soap only if necessary) and then apply a salve made with calendula and comfrey to soothe and heal them. I grew up knowing chilblains to be called frostbite. And it does, er, bite.
And don't worry, the Evil Dark Lords and Ladies don't believe in the efficacy of simple plants. Surely their labs create far better 'medicines'!"
12/7/16, 7:41 AM
Anthony Romano said...
I know I'm late o the table this week, but I also read the piece on the Alt-Right and I have to echo Shane's thoughts. I thought the author was spot on about Anomie and the soul-crushing reality of living in a meaningless consumerist culture. But, wow, do I think he is landing on the wrong solutions.
I get the distinct sense that the author of that article has never done a full day of physical labor in his life. The "anime-nazi" set need meaningful challenges in their life, not a white ethnostate.
I feel like they would all feel better if they took up hunting or something, instead of spending all night photoshopping MAGA hats on anime school girls. Putting a deer in their freezer might help fill that empty void in their life. Or maybe they should all join the military if they truly feel deprived of tight male companionship (as described in the article).
It's also strange to me that they seem to ignore the long history of radical left anti-consumerist movements. Does punk rock or earthfirst not exist on 4chan?
Also, many of the alt-right usernames I've seen recall ancient military traditions. AtlanticCenturion, Spartansomethignorother, and so on.
Maybe the irony is intentional (I doubt it), but they seem deeply threatened by homosexuality, despite holding societies like the Spartan's up on a pedestal....
I realize I've been a bit glib, but I'm mostly just baffled by the alt-right "thing".
12/7/16, 9:20 AM
Mark Leonard said...
I'm not sure what made you think I was faulting the Brazilians and Russians for being less affluent. I like life in less affluent countries. That's why, even though I'm a US citizen, I've lived and continue to live in them.
I had two points: First, that although the situation in the USA certainly resembles that in the USSR during its final days in some important ways, to say that it resembles "nothing so much as" that period of the USSR seems to be going too far. In fact, having also been in Venezuela during the early Chavez years, I see just as many, if not more, similarities between the USA today and that era in Venezuela. For example, the distrust, disgust and desperation caused by traditional party leaders failing to address economic problems; the expectation that a leader rather than grassroots organization and individual action will solve these problems (or at least a more balanced combination of national leadership and local action); the election of a charismatic, mercurial and bombastic outsider to be that leader; and the contrast between the horror of one part of the population at the election of that leader, and the hope of another part that this one man will be strong enough to do something—anything—to smash the status quo. Caudillo and caudillismo are Spanish words that are rich in overlapping meanings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caudillo); some of them may apply to the current situation in the USA.
Second, JMG replied that he thought Poles wouldn't want to emigrate to Detroit. I thought that, although Poles mostly emigrate to other countries in the EU nowadays, Detroit wouldn't look too bad to people who come from more desperate environments, of which there are plenty.
You make a good point about how everyone needs to get by on less. And that leads me to ask how many people in the USA actually want to do that. Trump promised to make America great again, which many interpret as being more materially prosperous. But Americans need to get by on less, and in fact they will have to do so at some point. You also mentioned some impatient, well-armed Trump supporters. So what do you think will happen if these impulsive, take-charge warrior types end up feeling deceived, as it seems they may? A second constitutional convention, a caudillo in the original sense of the word, a police-state, or just an ever deepening morass, like Venezuela in recent years? Do you think it will turn out well if, "unlike Obama's supporters, [Trump's supporters lose] patience with him in short order if he sells them out and make their voices heard by other, more muscular, means"?
12/7/16, 11:00 AM
Arnold.Faustus said...
Your take on Harry Potter is wrong. The view of human nature in the books is closer to those of CS Lewis and Dorothy Sayers than the PC world. But we are learning along with Harry and no faster. This is the first real bad thing we learn about the hero Dumbledor and the lovable Weasleys. The following books continue on revealing more and more flaws and evils. If anything the cited book should be taken as a savage putdown of PC attitudes.Hermione accomplishes nothing in PC mode and is only tolerated for friendship sake. Hermione does succeed in making changes in later books but only to the attitudes of Ron and Harry and in each case the negative effects of her PC period are the first barrier to getting them to listen to her.
Magic in the books is more like intelligence in that it appears in unexpectedfamilies as well as in the expected. Harry's mother was born to muggle parents. Hermione is also muggle born. The name created by those who want it to be genes and genes only is mudblood. Obviously mudblood existence undermines the ideology. Also undermining it are the ongoing effects of inbreeding.
One last point: Harry's step father is a business exec not working class. There also indicators that some of his family is yet higher placed.
12/7/16, 11:29 AM
Justin said...
Now, this could very well be a schoolyard rumor and a witch hunt, but that gym teacher also had a very butchy hairstyle and manner of dressing and was unmarried. But the fact remains if a male gym teacher (one of the rules was that gym class always involved a male and female teacher present, in case a locker room issue required adult intervention without the risk of lawsuits). If I had my way, homosexuals could be open about who they are and they would face the same sort of restrictions in the world that are entirely normal for heterosexual people. And of course, I know many LGBT etc would likely agree with me but there are plenty who would call me a some kind of -phobe or -ist.
12/7/16, 3:42 PM
Justin said...
Regarding the tight male companionship, I think the point is that the young men the article is talking about it don't understand what is causing their anomie or our society is structured in such a way that there are few opportunities. For example, you mention joining the military, but that's a huge quantum leap (nonetheless, many young men do join the military for reasons which are not entirely economic) - there's no incremental way to do it. I think one problem with modernity is that there are no major aspects of life that are single-gendered. Nearly every culture except the modern decadent West has had single-gender parts of society and I think that would go a long way to reducing anomie in these young men that find themselves drawn to anime-Nazism.
Regarding anti-consumerism, the problem with being anti-anything without being also pro-replacement-for-that thing is that it doesn't work. The alt right is selling their intoxicating, but ridiculous vision of a revival of the authoritarian ethnostates of the past.
And yeah, I doubt the guy's ever held a shovel, but it's entirely possible he lives in one of many regions of the United States where teenagers and young adults can't find that sort of work. Again, one of the things I would do if I were in charge, is make it completely mandatory for every young adult, around age 16, to go spend 6 months or so doing some sort of dirty, unpleasant, boring, strenuous job for little pay, while living in austere conditions (that way if their parents are wealthy, they don't come home to luxury every day) - tree planting is a perfect example. And anyone who goes to university has to spend another 6 months working as an apprentice in some sort of skilled manual labor job like welding or cabinet making.
And yeah, the use of ancient military traditions as usernames is funny, it always reminds me of a macbook-equipped latte-sipping dweeb with a Che Guevara shirt on. On the other hand, it seems like most cultures always have a pantheon of deceased warrior-philosophers, enough to say that such behavior is a common feature of all cultures, especially agricultural ones where organized warfare is more important.
12/7/16, 3:42 PM
dopeybollocks said...
12/10/16, 2:45 PM
S.Treimel said...
I have not read the comments yet, but I suspect that Archdruid Report did not make the Propornot list is that they would have had to read it through in order to decide if it was worthy of making the list. Comparing the length and depth of your writings to most of the offerings on the other sites that made the list is like comparing some 600-page novel of great literature to a comic book, a dime-store novel, or a Cliff Notes type summary.
I doubt the propornot authors were paid enough to do thorough research. And your site does not actively post cross-links to many of the other sites on that list.
Stephen
12/15/16, 10:39 AM
DoubtingThomas said...
1/15/17, 3:26 PM
DoubtingThomas said...
1/16/17, 1:52 AM